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04-13-2019, 01:29 PM
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#1
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,938
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Misleading Statistics
Aqu, R6 Doll
Stats in PPs say 1st Sart (44 .27 $1.60)
Mike Beer, in his comments, says "Servis is ever dangerous but has had little success with first time starters in NY over the past 5 years going just 2 for 41 though both those winners did come this year."
So what starts do you go by? 27% overall, 5% at NYRA, or making up at NY this year? Without Beer's comments, you are missing some key information.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-13-2019, 01:50 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,827
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Your looking at the toughest trainer to get a read on, FTS have only a few works usually, spread months apart! Good Luck, LOL you need a wire tap in the barn!
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Every time you are tempted to react in the same old way, ask if you want to be a prisoner of the past or a pioneer of the future.
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04-21-2019, 08:32 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: LNN
Posts: 524
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It's just one of those things where you probably aren't going to know unless someone points it out like Beer in this instance.
If you enjoy tinkering with the trainer tool in Formulator you could find this but probably not practical to be doing that with every trainer for every race.
Long story short, whenever I happen to find something like this I just add a note to my "trainer profile" for that outfit. Anytime a 30% trainer has an angle that is only 5% I find it very meaningful.
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They didn't take your money...You paid for lessons
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04-23-2019, 08:22 PM
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#4
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,304
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Paralysis by analysis
get to the heart of the evaluation, then forget all the needless "noise" that makes up the heart of many irrelevant stats that only cloud the true logic
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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04-23-2019, 08:58 PM
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#5
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Bombardier
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
get to the heart of the evaluation, then forget all the needless "noise" that makes up the heart of many irrelevant stats that only cloud the true logic
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Wow, welcome back. It has sure been a while doc.
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They don't think it be like it is, but it do. ~O.Gamble
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04-23-2019, 11:13 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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First start after a 9-year layoff?
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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04-24-2019, 09:31 AM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,938
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Welcome back 46!
I thought I was in an old thread for a minute.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-25-2019, 05:36 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Welcome back 46!
I thought I was in an old thread for a minute.
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If you're a horseplayer then chances are this is an "old" thread.
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04-25-2019, 09:43 AM
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#9
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,938
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__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-25-2019, 12:18 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
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I'm close. I have been betting since Beyer had hair.
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04-28-2019, 10:06 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 7,727
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
get to the heart of the evaluation, then forget all the needless "noise" that makes up the heart of many irrelevant stats that only cloud the true logic
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I did a double take too.
46zilzal, I'm happy to find you alive and kicking.
__________________
One flew east, one flew west,
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
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04-29-2019, 11:24 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: White Plains, NY
Posts: 5,315
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With FTS, doesn't the quality of the trainer's stock play a major role in his results? Maybe Servis' horses in recent years have needed more time to mature.
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andicap
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05-02-2019, 11:22 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap
With FTS, doesn't the quality of the trainer's stock play a major role in his results? Maybe Servis' horses in recent years have needed more time to mature.
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I think that's partly true, but it's probably more reflected in their overall win percentage. If a 30% trainer is suddenly winning 8%, the firsters will likely be part of that.
I find second-time starters to be more of a "trainer play" because you get a little better odds with the sudden improvement the horses make. Of course the stock matters, but not going all out the first time and then "all systems go" for the second start is a trainer intent thing that you can track (and sometimes it even holds up for years).
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