 |
|
10-03-2020, 09:50 AM
|
#976
|
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,858
|
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
|
10-03-2020, 12:28 PM
|
#977
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
This is a forum for discussions on what is going on in the real world and its implications for public health and the economy.
I am simply reporting what data scientists and mathematicians are saying about the virus that the mainstream media has been ignoring (months ahead of the mainstream curve).
There are papers on these issues being published regularly that are being reviewed and one actual Nobel Prize winner posting graphs of the data on Twitter where he has been making predictions.
Don't worry, I don't make policy.
Instead of listening and learning. You are preoccupied with bashing Trump.
|
I get that you are reporting what you think is a correct thesis
Let me put this in computer handicapping terms. I am sure you know this. In trying to show a profit we all use past history to project current reality outcomes. Whether short term or long term. But believing your numbers over the last week, month or year will be future outcomes is not enough.
For instance in neural networks, there is a a training dataset, second dataset called the validation dataset, and finally the he test dataset. Going forward testing your system of method is vital.
The advancement of science pretty much follows that arrangement. So far your premise has not been beyond the validation phase. Sounds good on certain segments in the past data, but you and the other researchers have not yet tested it going forward.
You don't even have a proper scientific test laid out HOW it can be tested.
Similar, but absolutely superior the commotion on this board about Hydroxychloroquine At least the mainstream established MD's could bring to bear the "randomized double blind placebo control studies, the “Gold Standard” in intervention based studies.
You need rigorous scientific "tests" to advance your claims.
How many horse racing "systems" pan out going forward?
I could invent dozens of devices, but a working model was the bottom line.
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum. 
Last edited by hcap; 10-03-2020 at 12:32 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2020, 12:37 PM
|
#978
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by hcap
I get that you are reporting what you think is a correct thesis
Let me put this in computer handicapping terms. I am sure you know this. In trying to show a profit we all use past history to project current reality outcomes. Whether short term or long term. But believing your numbers over the last week, month or year will be future outcomes is not enough.
For instance in neural networks, there is a a training dataset, second dataset called the validation dataset, and finally the he test dataset. Going forward testing your system of method is vital.
.
|
So what you are saying is that I can't trust models built by Nobel Prize winning mathematicians and data modelers on Covid even though they are doing a very good job projecting things but I should trust them on global warming even though their model projections have consistently proven wrong. 
How about simply using the data that we have and adjusting your thinking as we get more data the way I am?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-03-2020 at 12:40 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-03-2020, 01:09 PM
|
#979
|
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,605
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
How about simply using the data that we have and adjusting your thinking as we get more data the way I am?
|
He can't. He's bound to the narrative...no matter what.
It's not a good look.
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 03:25 AM
|
#980
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
He can't. He's bound to the narrative...no matter what.
It's not a good look.
|
As I said, super spreaders were common knowledge way before these new theories...
For instance no fancy shmancy variations on herd immunity was needed to figure out exactly what would happen.
We already knew no masks, no social distancing super spreads the disease.
Rose Garden Massacre Super-spreader Event Could Put SCOTUS Nom in Jeopardy
https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/03/7-whi...uper-spreader/
It's looking increasingly like Donald Trump's Rose Garden event a week ago where he unveiled his Supreme Court nominee was ground zero for what is increasingly looking like a super-spreader COVID event, and ironically, it could sink Trump's SCOTUS nominee.
As you know, almost no one was wearing masks or social distancing as Judge Amy Coney Barrett was introduced by President Trump.
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.
Last edited by hcap; 10-04-2020 at 03:28 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 03:28 AM
|
#981
|
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,605
|
hcap is the ultimate SUPER SPREADER....
SUPER SPREADER OF BULLSHIT
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 04:54 AM
|
#982
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
hcap is the ultimate SUPER SPREADER....
SUPER SPREADER OF BULLSHIT
|
Don't you feel guilty you support such royal A holes not smart enough to follow the basics?
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 06:36 AM
|
#983
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
So what you are saying is that I can't trust models built by Nobel Prize winning mathematicians and data modelers on Covid even though they are doing a very good job projecting things but I should trust them on global warming even though their model projections have consistently proven wrong.
How about simply using the data that we have and adjusting your thinking as we get more data the way I am? |
Your models did not work previously going forward. You posted this 06-10-2020
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I don't where you got that chart but it's a crock of crap.
Deaths in the US have been declining steadily for weeks. I've been tracking the data for months myself on a spreadsheet as have many other stats oriented sites.
Check
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
He gives daily updates. The data in NY has been awesome and OK elsewhere except in a few states where we still aren't sure what's going on. No we are mostly waiting on the impact of some recent openings and all the protests.
|
Deaths after 6-10-2020, did not continue to "decline steadily for weeks"
I told you you were a "day trader" ignoring long term epidemiological trends.
As of 7/01 deaths began to rise and are today where they were when you proclaimed they were declining. Deaths have plateaued. Smaller cycles within larger.
At the moment approx 900 per day. My models were simply based on longer term mainstream projections.
Conclusion:
Don't jump to conclusions with your latest models
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.
Last edited by hcap; 10-04-2020 at 06:39 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 06:56 AM
|
#984
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Furthermore, "plateauing" means pretty much a steady death rate.
Can you guys' new super spreader theory explain this difference any better than
standard epidemiology can.?
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.
Last edited by hcap; 10-04-2020 at 06:59 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 07:15 AM
|
#985
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,170
|
74 year old Trump and his comorbidities make him a high risk patient. If he were to head back to the White House in fine shape in 2-3 days, the narrative that we should all hide in the basement because Covid is a death sentence will have been dispelled.
Additionally, as someone who has had covid, Trump can better speak to the illness and relate better to the masses on this health issue. My sense is that Trump comes out stronger politically after he recovers than before he got it.
October surprise indeed!!
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 08:25 AM
|
#986
|
|
Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
|
Well that, tucker, would beget the notion that his getting it is a hoax (an idea that already is out there); even if it relies on all those other positives from the Barrett event being in on the hoax.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 11:43 AM
|
#987
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
74 year old Trump and his comorbidities make him a high risk patient. If he were to head back to the White House in fine shape in 2-3 days, the narrative that we should all hide in the basement because Covid is a death sentence will have been dispelled.
Additionally, as someone who has had covid, Trump can better speak to the illness and relate better to the masses on this health issue. My sense is that Trump comes out stronger politically after he recovers than before he got it.
October surprise indeed!!
|
The only conclusion we can draw is his and his pals wanton disregard for common sense, put him and his pals, and a bunch of innocent bystanders in harms way unnecessarily.
And it is beginning to look like the voters agree. That and his abysmal debate says it's now lights out to your cult who continues excuses him for any egregious idiocy.
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 12:18 PM
|
#988
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
|
Trump and his pals did not advance the laissez faire minimalist epidemiological approach favored by you cultists.
Nearly 3 in 4 think Trump did not take appropriate virus precautions: POLL
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trum...ry?id=73411221
In the wake of Trump's diagnosis, the survey also found an increasing number of Americans concerned that they, or someone they know, will be infected with the virus. Eighty-one percent are either very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, compared to 72% two weeks ago. The percentage of "very concerned" respondents rose 8 percentage points, from 29% to 37%.
__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 12:40 PM
|
#989
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 46,883
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by hcap
Trump and his pals did not advance the laissez faire minimalist epidemiological approach favored by you cultists.
Nearly 3 in 4 think Trump did not take appropriate virus precautions: POLL
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trum...ry?id=73411221
In the wake of Trump's diagnosis, the survey also found an increasing number of Americans concerned that they, or someone they know, will be infected with the virus. Eighty-one percent are either very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, compared to 72% two weeks ago. The percentage of "very concerned" respondents rose 8 percentage points, from 29% to 37%. |
Proving that misery loves company... 
__________________
Consistent profits can only be made on the basis of analysis that is far from obvious to the majority. - anonymous guru
|
|
|
|
|
10-04-2020, 01:59 PM
|
#990
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by hcap
Trump and his pals did not advance the laissez faire minimalist epidemiological approach favored by you cultists.
Nearly 3 in 4 think Trump did not take appropriate virus precautions: POLL
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trum...ry?id=73411221
In the wake of Trump's diagnosis, the survey also found an increasing number of Americans concerned that they, or someone they know, will be infected with the virus. Eighty-one percent are either very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, compared to 72% two weeks ago. The percentage of "very concerned" respondents rose 8 percentage points, from 29% to 37%. |
Did this lady practice safe, social distancing? She reminds me of many Joe Biden voters across the country raising havoc
__________________
“We’re in a situation where we have put together, and you guys did it for our administration…President Obama’s administration before this. We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” -Joe Biden
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
@
