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The Brisnet LP angle
This is similar logic to the final 3/8th fraction where in theory you need to be running well late at 9F to cross the line first or second at 10F. Only one Derby winner in the last 21 years had a final prep LP of less than 95 and that was one of biggest bombers in history. Only three horses hit the bottom of exacta with an LP of less than 93. There are typically about 10 horses in the Derby with a last out LP 95 and 10-12 with a last out 93+. The 95+ horses comprise about half the starters and 95% of the winners. The 95+ LP metric also completed 67% of the exactas from the the last 21 renewals. Using 93+ gets one 80% of all the exactas.
A review of the Pool 5 Brisnet sheet suggests fewer Brisnet LP 95+ horses this year than usual. We basically have ourselves a bunch of stretch running slugs this year. Could very well see another merry go round, but, perhaps the door is more open this year than usual for a bomber.
2021 (?)
Essential Quality - ? - 101 in SW, BG likely similar or better
Highly Motivated - ? - 95 in Gotham, BG perhaps around 100.
Known Agenda - ? Likely over 100
Soup and Sandwich - ? Probably in the mid 90s.
Rock Your World - ? I'm guessing low 90s.
The Wood and Ark were slow therefore no qualifiers expected.
2020* (8)
Authentic - 98
Tiz the Law - 104
2019* (11)
Maxmum Security - 123
Country House - 103
Code of Honor - 115
2018 (11)
Justify - 117
Good Magic 93
2017 (10)
Always Dreaming - 99
Looking at Lee - 101
2016 (11)
Nyquist - 95
Exaggerator - 98
2015 (8)
American Pharoah - 95
Firing Line - 94
2014 (7)
California Chrome - 97
Commanding Curve - 91
2013 (11)
Orb - 103
Golden Soul 100
2012 (13)
I'll Have Another - 109
Bodemeister - 105
2011 (10)
Animal Kingdom - 101
Nehro - 109
2010
Super Saver - 96
Ice Box - 108
2009
Mine That Bird - 79
Pioneerof The Nile - 105
2008
Big Brown - 98
Eight Belles - 106
2007
Street Sense - 113
Hard Spun - 97
2006
Barbaro - 103
Bluegrass Cat - 81
2005
Giacomo - 101
Closing Argument - 79
2004
Smarty Jones - 104
Lion Hart - 103
2003
Funny Cide - 106
Empire Maker - 108
2002
War Emblem - 107
Proud Citizen - 97
2001
Monarchos - 103
Invisible Ink - 93
2000 (13)
Fusaichi Pegasus - 106
Aptitude - 107
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