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Old 03-25-2021, 09:38 PM   #1
Robert Fischer
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The Florida Derby



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Old 03-25-2021, 10:08 PM   #2
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I do like Greatest Honour, but I'm not going to get any value at a short price.

I'll be looking at vertical exotics, and still have some work to do.

Would enjoy hearing the speed guys or other angles on why Greatest Honour is an 'underlay' here...

Great day with the Florida Derby Card, as well as the Dubai Card, some other good steaks...
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:12 PM   #3
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Going to play the ,, and on top of the and :11.
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Old 03-25-2021, 10:52 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post

Would enjoy hearing the speed guys or other angles on why Greatest Honour is an 'underlay' here...
Here’s a couple:

1) I heard on HRRN tonight that no horse has ever won the Holy Bull, the Fountain of Youth, and the Florida Derby.

2) It’s hard enough for me to think that a closer is going to get the right set up win four in a row, let alone do it a GP, and with those speed figures.

I’m playing against.

Here’s one in favor of Greatest Honour:

1) I’m playing against.
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Old 03-26-2021, 01:46 AM   #5
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This is a strong field.
I like it alot when Pletcher makes an equipment change on his good horses......he added the blinkers to Known Agenda in his last and he couldn't of looked any better.
I thought KA was going to become a buzz horse off of his last.....but that didn't develop.
The morning line on Known Agenda appears to be off......I think 5/2 is where he lands.
The choice.
Spielberg doesn't draw well......it's going to be tricky for Castellano......he has to work out some kind of a sneaky trip to give him his best chance.
Second money gets him into the starting gate @ Churchill.
The last time Greatest Honour lost a race it was Known Agenda who beat him......I think he'll run better @ Churchill in his next.
Third is no disgrace in this field.
Collaborate is a bigger version than most Into Mischief's......kind of makes the 600k price tag logical.
He can really run......just wish he had a two turn race under his belt.
Round out the Super.
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Old 03-26-2021, 08:20 PM   #6
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SPIELBERG wants to watch the exercise riders and talk trash to the clockers, 'getting out' with his head in the stretch, but his body is general a quality horse, and he doesn't get tired in long gallop-outs. He started out as a joke, and has developed into a serious horse.

Baffert and Castellano are aware of how close the starting gate is to the first turn.


In this race... speed situated outside? One possible scenario, is that is quarterhorsed. (Whether he is quick enough and fundamentally sound enough to pull it off is a question)


Collaborate is kind of a 'hype' underlay, but he is legitimately a nice animal in the flesh, and is a decent speed horse for Saffie Joseph. He's another who must 'hustle' at the break.


Very important whether, and how easily clear.

deserves respect as a board-hitter if only for possessing rail speed in a fairly soft paced grouping. Will Mott want Junior to be aggressive and 'play' the 1st turn?

Known Agenda is a player, and can actually be considered an inside speed here. Can easily 'attend' just off the pace with Irad.

Soup and Sandwich is worth a look. His last race featured slow fractions, but his maiden was enough at a sprint to push a bit. From post 8 Johnny and Casse/Live Oak aren't here to be passive. Possible player, have to watch his races.


So Greatest Honour does face a step up in class today. Show and Prove. Personally, I was very impressed with what I felt was a significant track configuration bias. His tactical ability, and his closing kick offset the bad post, last time, but there was a loose medium quality inside speed, and he basically had to sit tight and be perfect in terms of fundamentals, until the last possible second. That's not gonna produce a big Beyer. Maybe he's 'the "Ichiro"' of racing and is just perfect fundamentals? Today with a fair trip will show one way or the other. Today we should see a mild advancement on the backstretch. He's not a dead-set deep closer. See the trip, see how the the outside speeds make it around the first turn, see if anyone like Known Agenda fires a big one off, but if he's in the same form and gets a reasonable chance we're going to see a contending race and a career high Beyer.
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Old 03-26-2021, 08:27 PM   #7
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I don't see any profit but here are the THA picks.

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Old 03-26-2021, 10:41 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkunkApe View Post
Here’s a couple:

1) I heard on HRRN tonight that no horse has ever won the Holy Bull, the Fountain of Youth, and the Florida Derby.

2) It’s hard enough for me to think that a closer is going to get the right set up win four in a row, let alone do it a GP, and with those speed figures.

I’m playing against.

Here’s one in favor of Greatest Honour:

1) I’m playing against.
Good Luck. He'll be a short price with low speed figs question. Pick the winner!

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Originally Posted by Augenj View Post
I don't see any profit but here are the THA picks.
That's an interesting Rating System. We came up with similar horses... Could be some value if GREATEST HONOUR is truly 3rd best.
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Old 03-26-2021, 10:55 PM   #9
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Lasix, off, TAP and Saffie, let's see what kind of running they actually do, without it. Was it the blinks or the Lasix w/TAP, last out?

Saffie did it so easy, last out, but 3 races in what, 50 days, is a lot to ask, especially for a trainer that isn't used to the Derby trail.

Baffert has NEVER had a starter in this race. He's coming for a reason. The Florida bunch is bad this year.
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Old 03-27-2021, 08:32 AM   #10
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I'm going with the putting the second and third along with the
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Old 03-27-2021, 09:46 AM   #11
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On second thought Baffert didn't run here for no reason. First time ever in Florida Derby. Gotta put Spielberg in there.
Make it / exactly. Still betting to win
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Old 03-27-2021, 12:17 PM   #12
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Good Luck. He'll be a short price with low speed figs question. Pick the winner!
Thanks. I’ll use Quantum Leap, Known Agenda, and Collaborate in my horizontals.
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Old 03-27-2021, 06:32 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...64445958651905

...Would enjoy hearing the speed guys or other angles on why Greatest Honour is an 'underlay' here...
With about 2 mtp, I don't have a lot of time to go into reasons why.

But two that I see as (slight) overlays are #10 SPIELBERG and #8 SOUP AND SANDWICH.

Good luck to all.


-jp

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Old 03-27-2021, 06:36 PM   #14
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With about 2 mtp, I don't have a lot of time to go into reasons why.

But two that I see as (slight) overlays are #10 SPIELBERG and #8 SOUP AND SANDWICH.

Good luck to all.


-jp

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they were doing so well this season with post times, back to leaving walking ring with 1 min to post today.

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Old 03-27-2021, 06:46 PM   #15
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Three 99-1's and a 90-1; that's scary.


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