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Old 04-08-2021, 02:36 PM   #1
zico20
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Arkansas Derby

Most people won't even look at the race since it is a short field and has a big favorite. One interesting thing I noticed is that Caddo River has only 10 points and really needs a top two finish to make the Derby. One expert predicts he is going to the lead. I disagree! If he guns it and so does Concert Tour then he risks a total collapse and misses making the Derby. If the connections think the only way to win the Derby is going to the front then he might as well stay home as he will get cooked. I think he rates and lets Concert Tour have the lead. I see no other way for him to be in the hunt either Saturday or in three weeks. Baffert holds all the aces. I think he sends Concert Tour right to the front, if they both falter Hozier then is basically assured a Derby spot with any kind of decent effort and Concert Tour is already in the Derby. Also, if a duel develops and Caddo River falls apart that is one less speed horse in the Derby for Concert Tour to deal with. The last thing Baffert wants is Caddo River in the Derby and he has a golden chance to accomplish that. If Caddo River rates and finishes second that will be the strategy in the Derby, allowing Concert Tour a better chance to make the lead in the Derby. So when I hear experts saying Concert Tour is going to track Caddo River it makes no sense Saturday as Baffert is going to do what needs to be done to get Hozier in the Derby and make sure Concert Tour has as little other speed come Derby time. Either way, Concert Tour wins easily Saturday.
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:24 PM   #2
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Will be interesting to see how it plays out, and whether the points system seemed to influence the tactics.

Little bit dissapointed that it doesn't appear to be a great betting race. Lot of points on the line and the Top-20 points rankings don't appear to be out of reach.
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Old 04-08-2021, 05:01 PM   #3
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A six horse G1 is a bit yawn inspiring. Agree with the thoughts in initial post but wouldn't be shocked if JR pressed just outside if the bias is there.

Cannot really bet the race verticals using the chalk on top unless it's fairly cold gimmickry. Maybe I'll make a two dollar /// super for entertainment purposes and hope it pays $50. Perhaps there's more interesting options in the horizontals.
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Old 04-08-2021, 11:29 PM   #4
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So, the theory is that Caddo River is going to rate off Concert Tour. And the reason is they are afraid to get burned up in a pace duel, so they are going to rate to hold second. The problem with that theory is they already tried to rate off Concert Tour, and that did not work. In the Rebel, Caddo River was rank and begging for the lead. Their best chance is to send, and hope that they can win the duel, and the race.
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Old 04-09-2021, 12:38 AM   #5
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SUPER STOCK has been training lights out after the Rebel. this horse never gives up, know him late in the race and should be somewhere in the mix breaking from the rail.
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Old 04-09-2021, 09:46 AM   #6
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I'm intellectually curious to see how Caddo River runs tomorrow. Going into the Rebel, some figure makers had him a bit faster than others. I think there was at least some evidence his big win was better than it looked on some figures.

Many people hated the ride he got in the Rebel, but I'm not so sure an all out duel with Concert Tour would have worked very well either.

Geroux sent him last time. but then backed off when Rosario sent Concert Tour even harder and seemed determined to get the lead. I suspect this time there will be no backing off by Geroux. Concert Tour will have to sit off him or it's going to get really hot.

Then we'll find out if Caddo River is a very good 3yo that got rank and tired because he was rated last time or a mediocre horse that couldn't run with Concert Tour anyway.
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:39 AM   #7
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So, the theory is that Caddo River is going to rate off Concert Tour. And the reason is they are afraid to get burned up in a pace duel, so they are going to rate to hold second. The problem with that theory is they already tried to rate off Concert Tour, and that did not work. In the Rebel, Caddo River was rank and begging for the lead. Their best chance is to send, and hope that they can win the duel, and the race.
The second they went across the wire in the Rebel Cox knew one thing for certain. There was going to be a rematch in four weeks. It was at this time that he had to make a decision. Go all out for the lead even if that means going 44 and change or spend the next four weeks teaching Caddo River how to rate. Now we will find out what path he chose. If he chooses the lead and doesn't get it, or is dueling head to head he most likely runs last. Everyone knows when two speed horses blaze it on the front end at least one of them is nowhere to be found at the end. Dangerous strategy to make the lead at all costs. It will be interesting how the race starts. I think Concert Tour is the faster horse, they both were sent last time and he beat Caddo to the front. I think it will happen again.
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Old 04-10-2021, 09:08 AM   #8
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I think Concert Tour is the faster horse, they both were sent last time and he beat Caddo to the front. I think it will happen again.
Although Concert Tour certainly out-broke Caddo River from the gate, the latter quickly was alongside before crossing the wire the first time. The jock started to strangle Caddo River before reaching the first turn. In addition to wanting to rate the horse, he seemed intent on also getting to the outside of Concert Tour rather than staying on the rail. He accomplished that much, but despite his rating efforts Caddo River took off again after establishing an outside position and got to the throat latch of Concert Tour before the jock put a hammerlock on him.

That said, Concert Tour was under some restraint himself entering the backstretch. The colt clearly ran with his mouth open in the early stages suggesting he could have picked up if he allowed. In that respect, I'm not convinced he'll be able to settle, either. Note in the San Vincente (a 7 furlong race), Concert Tour again broke like a shot but was quickly out-footed by stablemate Freedom Fighter and later by the good Cal-bred The Chosen Vron (which came back to win a sprint stakes last weekend). The jock had a vise grip on Concert Tour to get him to sit in 3rd early down the backstretch while stalking the fast pace. That restraint seem to take its toll, as Concert Tour was all out and drifting in-and-out through the stretch before finally getting Freedom Fighter's measure close to the wire.

If there are any Wagon Limits, Pleasantly Perfects, Soul of the Matters, or Keen Ices in the race, could be worth a second look.
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Old 04-10-2021, 07:59 PM   #9
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Wow, The bob curse is still on, if I bet against him I lose, if I bet on him, I lose.
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:04 PM   #10
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Hope you played him Lamboguy
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:05 PM   #11
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SUPER STOCK has been training lights out after the Rebel. this horse never gives up, know him late in the race and should be somewhere in the mix breaking from the rail.
Good Call
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:34 PM   #12
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Wow, The bob curse is still on, if I bet against him I lose, if I bet on him, I lose.
Somebody should have told us Baffert was planning on rating Concert Tour. That was a one million dollar failed experiment. The problem is neither one of those two can run from off the pace. So if they both go in the Derby they will be winging it early otherwise why bother to show up at all. Caddo River should skip the Derby, he got run down with the lead, no way will he make the 1 1/4.
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:52 PM   #13
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Good Call
you are a class act and i really appreciate your recognizing my post.
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:57 PM   #14
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SUPER STOCK has been training lights out after the Rebel. this horse never gives up, know him late in the race and should be somewhere in the mix breaking from the rail.
Nicely done.
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Old 04-10-2021, 08:59 PM   #15
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Hope you played him Lamboguy
thank you, i did have him, and i also have him in the futures book..
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