Racing Economy

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Blame everything but the product.

I would imagine you are just waiting for the right moment to yell from the rooftops "if takeout was reduced the numbers would be up".

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by onefast99

Race days have declined over 5% in May do the math. If you really want to get into some of the probable causes of gambling in general being down look no further than gas prices.

Crude Oil prices were even higher for the first 5 months of 2008.

Anyone have handle stats? Google wasn't much help.

[Kelso]

Originally Posted by onefast99

What's in your wallet clown? Boycott receipts?

As I said ... your greed, ignorance and managerial incompetence.

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by jdhanover

I'm a management consultant and we hear these types of arguments a lot. They are NEVER black & white.
A few points:
1. One month of data does not make a trend
2. Many variables can impact this including something as simple as weather (I believe that there was an unusual amount of bad weather in many parts of the country this year in May but I could be wrong)
3. Having said 1 & 2 there is little doubt racing is in 'decline. More competition for the available wagering dollars (casinos, poker etc), economic times (lowering the amount of the population are willing to wager) though not related to gas prices directly, and the generally poor job by the industry when it comes to marketing etc is hurting the game. Without the younger generation getting interested, handle will continue to go down.
4. I have felt for a long time that the lack of coordination amongst tracks nationally negatively impacts handle including:
a. races not timed well so 4 go off within a minutes of each other then nothing for 17 minutes
b. racing dates and post times so that there are a decent number of tracks (but not too many which spreads the horse population too thin) each day/night

But the industry will likely never get its act together given the track owners cant see beyond their own world. Only way it might is if there are a couple of corporations (with good mgmt) end up buying all the tracks but I don't see that happening soon either

How about a government takeover, as with the auto companies ? That worked out well, right ...

[ronsmac]

I do know Monmouth's handle will be down about 250 or 300 million for their meet when it's all said and done. Maybe some of that money will be bet somewhere else, but if not, then the numbers for every month til october will definitely be down .

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by onefast99

I would imagine you are just waiting for the right moment to yell from the rooftops "if takeout was reduced the numbers would be up".

As opposed to horsemen's shout "If purses were up, then the numbers would be up"
I am not the only bettor yelling it from the rooftops. The is group of horse players saying the same thing, HANA. There is boycott of CA racing over takeout.
Takeout is not the only issue hurting handle. There is a thread here about drugs use in horses. It is another issue where horsemen and non horsemen gamblers disagree. It does seem like every time a non horseman bring up an idea that will encourage him to increase the amount of money he would wager, there are a bunch of horsemen who jump up and oppose it.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by badcompany

Crude Oil prices were even higher for the first 5 months of 2008.

Anyone have handle stats? Google wasn't much help.

Crude oil prices were down sharply for the first 5 months of 2009. Would anyone care to bet that handle numbers were up then?

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Crude oil prices were down sharply for the first 5 months of 2009. Would anyone care to bet that handle numbers were up then?

Down sharply? Please provide a link your word won't suffice.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Kelso

As I said ... your greed, ignorance and managerial incompetence.

Gordon Gekko once said "Greed is good", was that just in the movies? As I stated before, Mr Kelso you are all bark and no bite and you resort to stereo typing in almost every response on this forum even when heavily sedated!

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by onefast99

Gordon Gekko once said "Greed is good", was that just in the movies? As I stated before, Mr Kelso you are all bark and no bite and you resort to stereo typing in almost every response on this forum even when heavily sedated!

Gordon Gekko was a villian in the movie "Wall Street" and at the end of the movie he goes to jail.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by onefast99

Down sharply? Please provide a link your word won't suffice.

After checking, It is was the last 6 months of 2008 that oil prices dropped sharply instead of the first five months of 2009. From a high in July of $126 to low of $33 in Dec. They rose in the first 5 months of 2009 to a high of $51 in may. I will revise challenge from the first five months of 2009 to the to last 5 months of 2008. Does anyone believe that handle went up during the last 5 months of 2008 when the oil price dropped almost two thirds?
http://www.ioga.com/Special/crudeoil_Hist.htm

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

As opposed to horsemen's shout "If purses were up, then the numbers would be up"
I am not the only bettor yelling it from the rooftops. The is group of horse players saying the same thing, HANA. There is boycott of CA racing over takeout.
Takeout is not the only issue hurting handle. There is a thread here about drugs use in horses. It is another issue where horsemen and non horsemen gamblers disagree. It does seem like every time a non horseman bring up an idea that will encourage him to increase the amount of money he would wager, there are a bunch of horsemen who jump up and oppose it.

you are right there. takeout is the very last reason why horseracing is failing. i can show you 2 racetracks now that have lower takeout and lower handles. i started betting this morning at 6 a.m. and will go at it until the last race at the mountain this evening. i am getting tired of the game now and need a rest from it.
i just wanted to touch on one thing you said about the purses being up, they are actually down because the horses don't run that often.i would much rather have a smaller purse and see the horse run once a week than the way the game is structured now. if it was up to me i would change the mechanics of the game from head to toe, probably cut purses in half and have happier owners. its out and out crazy a horse runs once every 6 weeks for an inflated purse that the majority of the owners can't get their hands on to begin with.
fans of this sport want to see horses develop naturally week to week like good ballplayers in other sports. not this crap with training horses with drugs and more drugs. i want to see more horses run at older ages like 7 or 8. you mostly only see bottom horses survive that long these days.

[Robert Goren]

When I first started following the ponies in the early 60s, people had horses that they followed like they did ball players. It wasn't always some stake horse. More often than not it was some claimer that caught their eye. The horses ran every week or so. It was easy to do. This once a month starts makes that very hard.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

After checking, It is was the last 6 months of 2008 that oil prices dropped sharply instead of the first five months of 2009. From a high in July of $126 to low of $33 in Dec. They rose in the first 5 months of 2009 to a high of $51 in may. I will revise challenge from the first five months of 2009 to the to last 5 months of 2008. Does anyone believe that handle went up during the last 5 months of 2008 when the oil price dropped almost two thirds?
http://www.ioga.com/Special/crudeoil_Hist.htm

Using the yearly total from the 2010 ARM for 2008 ($13,648m) and that of 2007 ($14,725m) and the 2008 quarter 1 and quarter 2 stats seen in the 2nd qtr report by NTRA

1st half of year
2007 $7.541b
2008 $7.265b

We can deduce the figures for the second half of the year for those two years.

2nd half of year:
2007 $7.183b
2008 $6.382b

We can also see that there was a 4.75% decline in handle from the first half to the second half of 2007 and a 12.15% decline in handle between the first half and the second half of 2008.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

When I first started following the ponies in the early 60s, people had horses that they followed like they did ball players. It wasn't always some stake horse. More often than not it was some claimer that caught their eye. The horses ran every week or so. It was easy to do. This once a month starts makes that very hard.

And now many of those who played the horses when they were the only game in town, now frequent their favorite casino for the perks racing can't match.