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08-15-2017, 06:36 PM
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#16
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Dave, at this time I can only offer;
"It represent a factor which is derived from my formula based on the live 1 minuet to 2 minute tote board data".
I'm just demonstrating my results analysis here.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-15-2017, 10:34 PM
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#17
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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OK.
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08-16-2017, 08:23 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
When I work with players, we always begin by asking these questions (in this order):
2. Are the non-contenders you select that ultimately go off at 3/1 and below losing big money? (target should be $net of $1.20 or below.)
If not, then you do not know the difference between a good favorite and a bad one. That means your assessment of low odds contenders needs work.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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Verrrrrrry few horses at 3/1 or less lose 60 cents on the dollar.
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08-16-2017, 10:46 AM
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#19
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Quote:
Verrrrrrry few horses at 3/1 or less lose 60 cents on the dollar.
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I said $1.20. That's -40%.
And they do at my house.
About 35% of all races contain a low-odds horse that I toss. Such tossed horses lose 55%.
That fuels most of my plays.
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08-16-2017, 11:17 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I said $1.20. That's -40%.
And they do at my house.
About 35% of all races contain a low-odds horse that I toss. Such tossed horses lose 55%.
That fuels most of my plays.
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My mistake. So 35% of all RACES contain horses that go off at 3/1 or less and return less than 60 cents on the dollar. Am I now correct in stating your statement? Have you returned to wagering?
Last edited by Franco Santiago; 08-16-2017 at 11:23 AM.
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08-16-2017, 11:36 AM
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#21
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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You are correct. And I have returned.
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08-16-2017, 12:49 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
You are correct. And I have returned.
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Dave's handicapping: 35% of all RACES contain horses that go off at 3/1 or less and return less than 60 cents on the dollar.
Phenomenal, Dave. Congrats. Maybe post a listing of horses in the past week meeting this criteria?
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08-16-2017, 01:07 PM
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#23
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Sorry, but I do not have time to do that.
However, you can certainly join our upcoming class and see the non-software version of it.
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08-16-2017, 03:53 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Sorry, but I do not have time to do that.
However, you can certainly join our upcoming class and see the non-software version of it.
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Understood. Time is money. Out of curiosity, how much time would such an endeavor take?
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08-16-2017, 05:33 PM
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#25
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Since I play races one at a time, they would be live races.
So, to post 4 hours worth of races would take, logically, 4 hours. And a week's worth would take... you guessed it - a week.
Listen, I get your passive-aggressive voice here. I do live play sessions from time to time. Usually I only announce them in my private group, but if you will send me your email address I will notify you the next time I am doing one and you can attend.
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08-16-2017, 05:59 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
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The point I see here is that winning on Allow / Opt Claiming races and 3 yr olds to me is VERY good handicapping. Good job on this. Missing on Md Clm races and long sprints might be helped by paying more attention to pace and running style match ups. I do not know your style of handicapping, but it looks like a slight improvement in a couple areas is all you need. Keep learning and looking, this game never stays the same.
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08-17-2017, 11:20 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Since I play races one at a time, they would be live races.
So, to post 4 hours worth of races would take, logically, 4 hours. And a week's worth would take... you guessed it - a week.
Listen, I get your passive-aggressive voice here. I do live play sessions from time to time. Usually I only announce them in my private group, but if you will send me your email address I will notify you the next time I am doing one and you can attend.
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Sorry if my tone made you think I was saying something other than what I meant. I was under the impression that, as a software developer, you had a more automated means of finding horses at low odds that had very little value. THAT would be worth something. I didn't realize you had to analyze a race for an hour. I'll move on. Good luck, sir.
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08-17-2017, 01:32 PM
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#28
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago
Sorry if my tone made you think I was saying something other than what I meant. I was under the impression that, as a software developer, you had a more automated means of finding horses at low odds that had very little value. THAT would be worth something. I didn't realize you had to analyze a race for an hour. I'll move on. Good luck, sir.
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I play live. The actual analysis takes ME about 3 minutes.
The public paper-and-pencil version will probably take around 10 minutes.
Tone or not, this is what it is.
Good luck to you.
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08-17-2017, 11:02 PM
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#29
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-18-2017, 09:53 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I play live. The actual analysis takes ME about 3 minutes.
The public paper-and-pencil version will probably take around 10 minutes.
Tone or not, this is what it is.
Good luck to you.
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Good morning Dave, can you tell us what track(s) and dates you'll be playing live? Thanks.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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