It's out!!

[Cholly]

Tim Rice is a Southern gentleman and writer who also breeds thoroughbreds on his Innisfree Farm in Louisiana. Every year he pens a Derby analysis; this year’s edition includes:

- Bob Dylan lyrics.
- A brief bio of legendary 19th century turf handicapper & gambler Pittsburg Phil, and how his life reflected his “Maxims of a Punter”
- Anecdotes from the life of Riley Grannan, who was a contemporary of Phil’s and a competitor, both in gambling and in love--they shared a common mistress. Not to be missed are the quotes from his eulogy in Rawhide.

That alone should be ample to handicap this year’s Derby, but If you need more help Mr. Rice inludes a pithy analysis of each entrant’s breeding, accomplishments to date, and likely chances. He also gives out his picks and wagering strategy. It’s true that in the intervening years since he made Giacomo his selection, Mr. Rice has been throwing some clunkers. But last year he called out the cold $981 exacta of Orb over Golden Ticket, so you could say he’s trending upwards.

Cholly says check it out:

innisfree.org

[SecretAgentMan]

Its a fun read but from my understanding, he had a long shot pick in Giacomo in 2005 & got paid a fat stack if he bet it. His next win was in 2013 with Orb/Golden Soul exacta, that's 8 years in between w/o a winner........

He obviously loves longshots ........& he picked Wicked Strong for 2014 with Hoppertunity 2nd.......I'm assuming he doesn't know Wicked is coming out of post #20, now being moved to #19 & Hoppertunity is scratched.

Lots of love for Wicked & I'm glad to see it. Has he ever picked a favorite altho he did have the fav in the exacta last year. The fav has won the derby 3 of past 7 derbys & Barbaro should have been a fav & was the ML fav........to this day, I still can't believe Barbaro paid $14, what a gift!

[clocker7]

A nice read, although there are some historical "question marks." The claim of Pittsburg Phil pioneering the observation of a horse's paddock demeanor is a howler.
It was a custom decades before Phil to keep a horse's physical condition and personality as much of a secret as possible. A stable went to great lengths to hide such vital information for as long it could. Because much betting happened a night or two before a race at calcutta-style auctions in hotel saloons (and during the day of the race), horses wore long blankets to hide their condition and other vital information from a crowd made up of a population used to day-to-day dealing with horses. (Many would have workouts conducted under those blankets). Gaze through the old archived newspaper accounts; the language used to described the unveiling of the entrants on the quarterstretch reads like the titillation experienced by those at strip clubs, it was that revealing and exciting for them.

[precocity]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Its a fun read but from my understanding, he had a long shot pick in Giacomo in 2005 & got paid a fat stack if he bet it. His next win was in 2013 with Orb/Golden Soul exacta, that's 8 years in between w/o a winner........

He obviously loves longshots ........& he picked Wicked Strong for 2014 with Hoppertunity 2nd.......I'm assuming he doesn't know Wicked is coming out of post #20, now being moved to #19 & Hoppertunity is scratched.

Lots of love for Wicked & I'm glad to see it. Has he ever picked a favorite altho he did have the fav in the exacta last year. The fav has won the derby 3 of past 7 derbys & Barbaro should have been a fav & was the ML fav........to this day, I still can't believe Barbaro paid $14, what a gift!

and I had that gift 500$ to win!!!!! so I know speed and setting of the pace!

[BettinBilly]

Enjoyed that very much. Thanks for posting.

I like Wicked very much. His post position is really unfortunate, but we'll see what he can do.

I also liked Hoppertunity. Now I'm looking elsewhere for a good exotic mix.

Then there is Chrome. WILL he actually FADE on the stretch? We'll see.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by precocity

and I had that gift 500$ to win!!!!! so I know speed and setting of the pace!

Yes, it was a great race & winner........too bad what happened afterwards.

[precocity]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yes, it was a great race & winner........too bad what happened afterwards.

no redboarding but my old man was in Vegas for the Oscar vs mayorga fight
and called me and said son who is going to win the derby? I SAID THE HE SAID HOW MUCH SHOULD I PUT ON HIM TO WIN? I SAID ALL YOU GOT! TRUE STORY HE CALLED ME BACK WOW YOU MADE ME SOME CASH!!! I SAID HOW MUCH YOU PUT ON HIM? MY OLD MAN SAID 700$ TO WIN AND 50 ACROSS THE BOARD?....

[Cholly]

Mr. Rice missed w/ his top pick (Wicked) but for the 2nd year in a row had the bomb place horse as his 3rd choice...don't know how he played it, but the $31.80 place and $15.20 show surely covered some of his losses on Wicked.

[Cholly]

The Innisfree Farm's Derby Analysis is out...and a delightful read as always. Mr. Rice has been on a tear the last two years; will 2015 continue that trend?

I won't give out his prediction, but Cholly's likes how it starts, "So we will follow Lady Macbeth’s advice to the husband to screw your courage to the sticking-place, and we’ll not fail."

http://www.innisfree.org/#

[Exterminator]

Bumping this thread with the 2018 version of the Innisfree Farm Derby Letter:

http://www.innisfree.org/PDFs/DERBY-2018.pdf