PLACE PAYOUT

[juanepstein]

play australia

[formula_2002]

yesteday 01-21-2009

w/o any handicapping, 101 favorites returned a wps roi of .96

so far this month, 1344 favorites returned a wps roi of .90.

compare that to daves tables where the wps roi calculates to .83

i think the economy is having an impact on the tote board

[Dave Schwartz]

Joe,

Of course, I am sure that you would be the first to tell us that the sample size is small but there is no doubt that racing is ever-changing. Perhaps it is a trend.

Build a table based upon month-of-year (from past years) and compare to that.

Dave

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Joe,

Of course, I am sure that you would be the first to tell us that the sample size is small but there is no doubt that racing is ever-changing. Perhaps it is a trend.

Build a table based upon month-of-year (from past years) and compare to that.

Dave

what would be interesting to me would be to go back 10 years, calculate w,p,s, and wps roi standard deviation and z scores .
if there were a tend, then i would like to chart it against the s&p and dja..

[Dave Schwartz]

What stops you?

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

What stops you?

I have to work it in with some of my other thoughts

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

yesteday 01-21-2009

w/o any handicapping, 101 favorites returned a wps roi of .96

so far this month, 1344 favorites returned a wps roi of .90.

compare that to daves tables where the wps roi calculates to .83

i think the economy is having an impact on the tote board

In the book "efficiency of racetrack betting markets" page 271, there are a few roi charts .
in 1947 there were 1124 races in which horses that went off at <=1.5 that has an roi of about .90
in 1975 there were 1183 race in which the same odds range horses returned a roi of about .83
in 1972-1974 there were 1730 races that returned about .86 roi.
there are other charts including the 10,000 Fabricant race study (the <=1.5 horses returned about .92 roi in 1965)

I dont know what the takeout was in 1947, but i would think it was less than todays.
I seem to recall that at one time, perhaps in the late 30's the take was 10%

[Dave Schwartz]

Joe,

I don't think you need to work that hard.

Racing is changing because of:

1. Proliferation of common information (i.e. downloads)
2. Better tools
3. Whales

I'd bet that you could look at (say) each of the last 5-10 years and see a trend.


Dave

[mannyberrios]

Originally Posted by showbet

By no means is it easy, but it is possible to make money with show betting. "Justification" attached.

Very interesting, maybe it is posible

[TEJAS KIDD]

Figuring Place Payoffs.
Twinspires has a tab for pools in the betting/toteboard.
Click on the Pools tab and then click on percentages
The Percentages of the pool that each horse represents is under their corresponding number.
If you know what the take out rate is at the track, then deduct that from 100.
Lets say its 18% for wps wagers to get 82%
Now add the top 2 finishers percentages.
Lets say 35 and 15
Deduct that sum of 50 from the 82%
Now we have 32% remaining to be paid out but we have to divide by 2 (1 cut for each horse)
The 1st horse gets paid 16-35 $2.80 or 2.90 if using nickle breakage
and the other gets paid 16-15 $ 4.00 or 4.10 if nickle breakage

If your looking at possible payoffs then you take the % of your horse and use the favorite (or highest % of remaining runners), that will represent the lowest possible payoff for the place. Then take the Lowest % runner and use it with your horse. That will represent the highest possible payoff for your runner

Hope that helps and hope I explained it thoroughly