PLACE PAYOUT

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

win odds x .40

[Dave Schwartz]

What is so funny?

Please explain...

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Public Choice Ranks


Win Bets

1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            26,121  9,499   36.4  $1.69   2.77   1.01   1.32
2nd            24,740  5,196   21.0  $1.60   1.60   0.96   1.11
3rd            24,788  3,653   14.7  $1.57   1.12   0.94   1.00
4th            24,694  2,584   10.5  $1.55   0.80   0.94   0.92
5th            24,535  1,742    7.1  $1.50   0.55   0.91   0.81
6th            23,154  1,135    4.9  $1.46   0.39   0.91   0.74
7th            19,241    611    3.2  $1.30   0.27   0.83   0.63
8th            14,223    340    2.4  $1.36   0.22   0.86   0.61
above          20,720    271    1.3  $1.10   0.14   0.74   0.48

Total         202,216 25,031   12.4  $1.48   1.00   0.96

Place Bets

1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            26,071 14,867   57.0  $1.75   4.34   1.59   1.88
2nd            24,690 10,463   42.4  $1.65   3.22   1.93   1.89
3rd            24,739  7,915   32.0  $1.56   2.43   2.04   1.79
4th            24,673  6,089   24.7  $1.55   1.88   2.22   1.74
5th            24,534  4,413   18.0  $1.51   1.39   2.31   1.64
6th            23,154  2,860   12.4  $1.40   0.98   2.29   1.47
7th            19,241  1,671    8.7  $1.32   0.74   2.28   1.35
8th            14,223    939    6.6  $1.34   0.61   2.38   1.31
above          20,720    727    3.5  $1.08   0.37   1.99   1.01

Total         202,045 49,944   24.7  $1.48   2.00   1.92

Show Bets

test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            25,583 18,155   71.0  $1.80   5.30   1.94   2.19
2nd            24,239 14,267   58.9  $1.75   4.39   2.63   2.42
3rd            24,280 11,913   49.1  $1.68   3.66   3.07   2.47
4th            24,223  9,766   40.3  $1.63   3.02   3.55   2.52
5th            24,330  7,664   31.5  $1.54   2.41   4.01   2.49
6th            23,136  5,264   22.8  $1.41   1.81   4.22   2.33
7th            19,235  3,181   16.5  $1.27   1.41   4.34   2.16
8th            14,222  1,801   12.7  $1.25   1.17   4.56   2.10
above          20,719  1,491    7.2  $1.00   0.76   4.07   1.69

Total         199,967 73,502   36.8  $1.51   2.94   2.82

favorite win bet roi=.84
favorite place bet roi=.875
favorite show bet roi =.90

those are similar to the numbers I came up with.
Jan 2009 numbers for the place are even a bit better.
In my dream of dreams (see my picks on the selection board) I think I can handicap the place and show roi up to 10% better than those numbers.
add in a 7% rebate and I'm in pig heaven.

[green80]

A simple method I use is the horses odds to win. A 4/1 , 4.00 place , 6/1 6.00 place. This will get you close unless the horse runs with a longshot or odds on favorite to skew the place payoffs

[BigJake]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

favorite win bet roi=.84
favorite place bet roi=.875
favorite show bet roi =.90

those are similar to the numbers I came up with.
Jan 2009 numbers for the place are even a bit better.
In my dream of dreams (see my picks on the selection board) I think I can handicap the place and show roi up to 10% better than those numbers.
add in a 7% rebate and I'm in pig heaven.

I am working a method of Show betting, but really wondered if you could make consistant money doing it. I don't have all the resources I'd like, but out of 84 races (no maiden races) there were 32 plays showing a 1.16 ROI to this point. That's just Show betting, no rebating (yet). With the limits you must maintain on betting, as not to effect the pools too much, is there a way to make it just on Show betting? I don't think so. I'd love to hear some justification for it though.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by BigJake

I am working a method of Show betting, but really wondered if you could make consistant money doing it. I don't have all the resources I'd like, but out of 84 races (no maiden races) there were 32 plays showing a 1.16 ROI to this point. That's just Show betting, no rebating (yet). With the limits you must maintain on betting, as not to effect the pools too much, is there a way to make it just on Show betting? I don't think so. I'd love to hear some justification for it though.

the tables Dave posted indicate the long term roi ($net/2).
where do you want to start?
trying to beat long odds with a small roi (large loss) or trying to beat short odds and a larger roi(smaller loss).

When does the smart betting money, betting with the shorter priced horses with the larger roi's, get so dumb, the even smarter guys make money playing the longer odds.?

I know that is not an answer to your question. I just had to get it out.
suggestion, increase your 30 race sample by 100 times and see what the roi is.
If, without changing anything in your "system", you can atleast break even, you may want to do some further statistical analysis of the system.

good luck

[BigJake]

When I say I don't have the resources, I mean I don't have the ability to run a 3000 race sample overnight. I am just hand entering results as I play.
The real question is not if my system works, though. I am more interested in if anyone is using show betting as their main play.

[SMOO]

I keep seeing these improved ROIs on place & show betting for horses in the favorite range, but I'm not sure if those would hold up with extra money in the pools. Less efficient markets like these are that way because of "dumb" money being bet on longshots to place & show. But is there enough "dumb" money being bet to actualy profit off of it?

[Robert Fischer]

my adw feed has place estimates. I do a lot of flipping back and forth between the estimates and the actual amount of money in the pools. Can usually check value by just seeing the pool information. How much is on the favorite(s)?? How much is on my horse? My horse is Nth choice in the place pool and so on...

It's tough to be accurate if you're away from a computer. At an OTB watching the feed you might get a 60 second peek at the place pool with 3-5 minutes to go. That is fine if you are thinking about the 3rd choice, but a favorite can change drastically with late money.

[Dave Schwartz]

When I say I don't have the resources, I mean I don't have the ability to run a 3000 race sample overnight. I am just hand entering results as I play.
The real question is not if my system works, though. I am more interested in if anyone is using show betting as their main play.

It is a fact that testing to large sample sizes is inconvenient. While a 3,000-bet sample will prove the validity, even a 500-bet sample will give you a better shot at it being more than a lucky run.

32 races is pretty worthless as an indicator.


Please note that I am not disparaging your discovery. I am saying that maybe you have a discovery and maybe you don't. If you want to just jump in and try it, so be it. When you've gotten several hundred bets under your belt, you'll have a better idea if it is valid. At a couple thousand bets you will be sure, one way or the other.

Good luck on your quest.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BigJake]

Thanks Dave. As always your ideas and comments are welcome and will be well received ( yours too Formula). I really do understand that 32 races is insufficent. I really shouldn't have even mentioned any thing about my trial or my numbers. I was just setting a backdrop for my question about show betting being profitable in the long run. I had been looking for a place on this forum to ask, and saw this about place betting and took a shot. I've only heard of one person in So Cal who really utilizes place and show betting as their main method. I was wondering if anyone else was trying, successful, or unsuccessful in that. Beyer says you can't even win long term with win bets. You need a couple of big exotic hits a year to "make money". It sounds like people in this forum are winning with win bets, am I right? I just don't think it is possible long term, but my quest will continue.

[showbet]

Originally Posted by BigJake

...is there a way to make it just on Show betting? I don't think so. I'd love to hear some justification for it though.

By no means is it easy, but it is possible to make money with show betting. "Justification" attached.

[Dave Schwartz]

Beyer's answer obviously applies to Beyer. You mileage may vary. I know mine does.

[RonTiller]

Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout. Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?

This is the data for the win horse ONLY. That is, if a horse goes off at even money and wins, the win payoff will be $4.00 (obviously) and the average place price on that winning horse will be $2.86 and the median place price on that winning horse will be $2.80. This is not the average place price of horses coming in 2nd.

The median is for 18 years and the average is since 1/1/2001. Higher odds only have several hundred or less samples, so they are not displayed. There are a few other minor technicalities in compiling the data but here are the numbers:

Odds	W$	Avg_P$	Med_P$
0.1	$2.20	$2.19	$2.20
0.2	$2.40	$2.25	$2.20
0.3	$2.60	$2.30	$2.20
0.4	$2.80	$2.37	$2.40
0.5	$3.00	$2.44	$2.40
0.6	$3.20	$2.52	$2.60
0.7	$3.40	$2.61	$2.60
0.8	$3.60	$2.69	$2.60
0.9	$3.80	$2.77	$2.80
1	$4.00	$2.86	$2.80
1.5	$5.00	$3.24	$3.20
2	$6.00	$3.59	$3.60
2.5	$7.00	$3.90	$3.80
3	$8.00	$4.26	$4.20
3.5	$9.00	$4.61	$4.60
4	$10.00	$4.91	$4.80
4.5	$11.00	$5.28	$5.20
5	$12.00	$5.62	$5.60
6	$14.00	$6.30	$6.20
7	$16.00	$6.96	$7.00
8	$18.00	$7.73	$7.60
9	$20.00	$8.39	$8.20
10	$22.00	$8.94	$8.80
11	$24.00	$9.78	$9.60
12	$26.00	$10.30	$10.20
13	$28.00	$10.90	$10.80
14	$30.00	$11.49	$11.40

At 1/9, winning horses median place payoffs are 100% of their win payoff.
At 1/2, winning horses median place payoffs are 80% of their win payoff.
At 1/1, winning horses median place payoffs are 70% of their win payoff.
At 5/2, winning horses median place payoffs are 54% of their win payoff.
At 5/1, winning horses median place payoffs are 47% of their win payoff.
At 10/1, winning horses median place payoffs are 40% of their win payoff.

Somebody can do a simple regression to get the best formula. The place payoff for the 2nd place finisher is another question.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[Track Collector]

Let me throw out a caution when it comes to trying to make a profit with show bets. Unless one is playing exclusively at major tracks like GP, SA, etc., one should take the time to calculate the pool dilution one will bring about due to their wager going in to the pool. If your wager is say $20 and up you could easily half or even negate all of your identified advantage at a minor or mid-level track. Even with lesser show wagering amounts it is still a good exercise to determine and understand how much YOUR pay-off will be reduced when YOU enter the wagering pool.

As stated by Dave, small sample sizes can have huge variations, and have the power to fool you in to thinking a particular handicapping strategy is profitable when in fact it is not. Do yourself a favor and test it over a much larger sample size.