BetMix

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by jk3521

If you downloaded the BRIS Race Summary for that race you get the same horses listed in almost the same order. This is a good way to search for longshots. If a longer priced horse is in the top 4 , consider them.

When "yours or any" program can consistently get a longshot in the 3rd or 4th position then you have something real good...

The thing is .....How do you handle betting 4 horses?

I believe that finding a vulnerable favorite is key....if he is...then you have a big advantage in that race....

So what do you do?

Mike

[jk3521]

The longshot over the other three plus the favorite, if not one of the top four, could be the way to go if betting exotics. Seen it happen many times.

[Light]

Originally Posted by jk3521

Seen it happen many times.

That phrase is anecdotal,not statistical.The problem with BM is that a certain betting strategy can be created to back fit a long shot 3rd choice. But since most races are not won by long shots, good luck in sticking to it. And good luck that that strategy can catch the next long shot who is ranked 4th. I tried with BM and the variables are too great to allow a profit.

What happens in BM when you adjust your betting strategy in one way, say to catch long shots, it will negatively affect your ability to catch horses in the other categories, say in the mid priced range. You then try to compensate for that and it never ends.

I overrode my program when it gave me its second pick where I would have collected $122 yesterday, a horse who never routed. So I'm supposed to say, "horses like that win, seen it many times". Baloney. I know they win only 10%of the time at best and their ROI is a huge negative.

On top of that this was an 8yo not a 3 or 4yo who never routed. That was my rationale for overriding the program. The program knew it was a first time router but not that it was an 8yo. But on that same day I also overrode a horse whose trainer is 0-33, but keyed him behind the favorite in the exacta. No boxing. Of course the horse wins and my exacta and DD are screwed.

So if there is anything I could say "seen it happen many times", its things like that.

That's why I am working on a statistical form of selecting my bets. Like you would do in Blackjack. Instead of saying "seen it happen many times", you will have statistics to back it up or throw it out. It does work from my limited play in it but the database still needs much more data.

[fmazur]

If anybody wondered, I did bet the #11 & #12 to win in the 9th at Belmont. I did not use the #5 as he was too low in odds. This is how you get nice plays in Betmix. According to Betmix a longshot figured to win this race.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by Light

That phrase is anecdotal,not statistical.The problem with BM is that a certain betting strategy can be created to back fit a long shot 3rd choice. But since most races are not won by long shots, good luck in sticking to it. And good luck that that strategy can catch the next long shot who is ranked 4th. I tried with BM and the variables are too great to allow a profit.

What happens in BM when you adjust your betting strategy in one way, say to catch long shots, it will negatively affect your ability to catch horses in the other categories, say in the mid priced range. You then try to compensate for that and it never ends.

I overrode my program when it gave me its second pick where I would have collected $122 yesterday, a horse who never routed. So I'm supposed to say, "horses like that win, seen it many times". Baloney. I know they win only 10%of the time at best and their ROI is a huge negative.

On top of that this was an 8yo not a 3 or 4yo who never routed. That was my rationale for overriding the program. The program knew it was a first time router but not that it was an 8yo. But on that same day I also overrode a horse whose trainer is 0-33, but keyed him behind the favorite in the exacta. No boxing. Of course the horse wins and my exacta and DD are screwed.

So if there is anything I could say "seen it happen many times", its things like that.

That's why I am working on a statistical form of selecting my bets. Like you would do in Blackjack. Instead of saying "seen it happen many times", you will have statistics to back it up or throw it out. It does work from my limited play in it but the database still needs much more data.

So let me get this straight! you supposedly have your own software program that gives you a $122 horse that's the 2nd pick and you don't bet it, but your asking Lefty what software he's using to get $21.60 & $13.40 winners? this makes absolutely no sense at all!

[fmazur]

Kingfin66
I am curious as to what the ROI would be for horses with top 3 Score
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are the stats for the Mix I use. I went back 80 races for these.

17Win 22PL 28SH 7 more wins in top 3
10Win 18PL 25SH 10 more wins in top 3

27Win 40PL 53SH 17 more wins in top 3


34% WIN 55% of top 3 win
50% PL
66% SH

Attached Most recent 40 races Previous 40 races

[fmazur]

I can get a lot (maybe all) information in relation to horse racing. You have to be more specific though, i.e. 6F clm, 1-mile turf RTE, all 3Y.O. moving up in class, a trainer with jockey, etc. If you don't do it this way, too many horses are involved. I ran your top 3 Score for 2019 and came up with 20,000+ horses. The ROI was 79.6% Win 80.5% Pl and 82.5% show.


From Jan 1, 2019, thru Jun 18, 2019
Using only AQU, BEL, GP, TAM, SA, FG, OP and CD
ROI for horses with top 3 Score

[Light]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

So let me get this straight! you supposedly have your own software program that gives you a $122 horse that's the 2nd pick and you don't bet it, but your asking Lefty what software he's using to get $21.60 & $13.40 winners? this makes absolutely no sense at all!

It was a DD. Parx 6/16 Races 6&7. So first leg my software had the $14 horse right on top. So I'm alive in the second leg. My program had the eventual $16.80 winner ranked 2nd. But I didn't like that the horse was routing for the first time as an 8yo. So left him off the ticket. DD paid $122.

[fmazur]

Another nice thing about Bettmix is they point out the 10 races most likely to have good payoffs. Attached are the top 10 from June as well as the top 10 for June 19th

[Light]

Originally Posted by fmazur

The ROI was 79.6% Win 80.5% Pl and 82.5% show.

From Jan 1, 2019, thru Jun 18, 2019
Using only AQU, BEL, GP, TAM, SA, FG, OP and CD

But that's based on 100% ROI being the break even mark. With 80% ROI you are losing 20 cents per dollar. So how is that "nice"? Because in your next post you say "Another nice thing about Bettmix....".

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by Light

But that's based on 100% ROI being the break even mark. With 80% ROI you are losing 20 cents per dollar. So how is that "nice"? Because in your next post you say "Another nice thing about Bettmix....".

That is not fair and you know it. He was trying to be helpful and respond to something I had requested from him. It is obvious that it does not reflect how he/she necessarily uses Betmix. His next post was simply sharing about info that is available to Betmix users. In other words, it is another nice feature. Why pick a fight with someone who is only trying to be thoughtful in responding to a request made by the OP?

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

Why pick a fight with someone who is only trying to be thoughtful in responding to a request made by the OP?

Because that's what he does.

[fmazur]

Originally Posted by Light

But that's based on 100% ROI being the break even mark. With 80% ROI you are losing 20 cents per dollar. So how is that "nice"? Because in your next post you say "Another nice thing about Bettmix....".

Yes, I know that if I made them plays I would lose 20 cents per dollar, so I do not do that. I obviously look for something better. Here are methods I used at AQU. and Oaklawn, one for favorites and one for long shots. 250% ROI on the long shots and 121% ROI on the favorites. The long shot method had 16% winners, while the favorite one had 48% winners. Different tracks, different time of year, different surfaces, different distances, etc., require a different method, which Betmix allows me to find. At some tracks, nothing works and at others, you get some very nice plays. Right now 6F ALW. and 6F CLM at Parx are doing very well. Betmix allows me to determine whether I should be looking for chalk, midprice or long shots. With long shots, I will play two and sometimes three horses in a race.

[hndcpr59tp]

Hi. I am selling off all my software programs that I have purchased thru the years. If anyone is interested, just private message me and send me a list of what you are looking for.

Tom

[Light]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

That is not fair and you know it. He was trying to be helpful and respond to something I had requested from him. It is obvious that it does not reflect how he/she necessarily uses Betmix. His next post was simply sharing about info that is available to Betmix users. In other words, it is another nice feature. Why pick a fight with someone who is only trying to be thoughtful in responding to a request made by the OP?

Asking for clarification is not picking a fight. If you are incredibly insecure about what you are saying, I guess you could perceive it that way.