San Felipe Stakes Possibles/Probables

[classhandicapper]

I tried to beat Authentic. I thought his last big win (though visually impressive), came on a day when the inside and speed was better at SA. I thought he was a little vulnerable. Guess not. I ran a good 2nd.

[Robert Fischer]

Honor A.P. is a solid horse. He did not run poorly.

Authentic is not 'Justify', but he's very good. He's still progressing. If he get's a little more efficient going 'station-to-station', he will have even more flash for the stretch. Sometimes in the two-turn routes going 9,10 furlongs, there's actually less significant pressure. Baffert's triple crown horses are generally very strong with fundamentals. Authentic is a leader or E6 or 'speed horse', but even with a little inefficient use of energy, he still has the kind ears.

[GMB@BP]

I get the love for Honor AP as it was quite a lengthy layoff, but nothing his barn cannot handle when they aim for a race, but with that said it sure looked like he has a lot of ground to make up on Authentic who did not have the race unfold in any easy way and still was never really threatened.

[GaryG]

Honor A P gets to try him again in the SA Derby.

[f2tornado]

I see Authentic as speed horse with some stamina (i.e. not cheap speed) that is vulnerable going longer. His Equibase figure fell 8 points from the Sham and he was helped with a good ride taking the shortest way around. The splits got progressively slower with time. Smith took it relatively easy on AP with what looked like only four whips from the top of the stretch. Would not be surprised to see the tables turned if we have a rematch in the Santa Anita Derby. While I did use AP in my future pool exacta, I'll need to see more late speed from either horse in next prep before playing in final pool or the Derby.

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I see Authentic as speed horse with some stamina (i.e. not cheap speed) that is vulnerable going longer. His Equibase figure fell 8 points from the Sham and he was helped with a good ride taking the shortest way around. The splits got progressively slower with time. Smith took it relatively easy on AP with what looked like only four whips from the top of the stretch. Would not be surprised to see the tables turned if we have a rematch in the Santa Anita Derby. While I did use AP in my future pool exacta, I'll need to see more late speed from either horse in next prep before playing in final pool or the Derby.

Every other speed figure that I've seen has him running faster. I don't talk about other speed figures very often, but anybody that watches the Sham and how that horse was goofing off during the race and then watches this last race and thinks he ran slower Saturday should probably re-check the work.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

Every other speed figure that I've seen has him running faster. I don't talk about other speed figures very often, but anybody that watches the Sham and how that horse was goofing off during the race and then watches this last race and thinks he ran slower Saturday should probably re-check the work.

I can't disagree with that logic. The San Felipe was still a 105 Equibase fig which is nothing to sneeze at. Slower is certainly a very relative term here. I like to approach most figures with an approximate +/- 5% variance to account for potential errors. A +5% puts him pretty close to his Sham figure. Better or worse is eye of the beholder. I feel like I know what I'm gonna get with him going forward.

[GaryG]

If no problems arise before the SA Derby I most certainly would not bet against him.

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by cj

Every other speed figure that I've seen has him running faster. I don't talk about other speed figures very often, but anybody that watches the Sham and how that horse was goofing off during the race and then watches this last race and thinks he ran slower Saturday should probably re-check the work.

How much juice involved here?