Raw Times and Smarty

[cj]

Yes, they now split sprints and routes, they did not do that back then.

[fmazur]

Originally posted by trp
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In addition, speed ratings were based on track records in 1973 and on best 3-year time now. I believe the calculation of the track variant is also a little different now. [/B]

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While the speed rating/varient are figuered differently, they still are the closest thing for comparing times. Another thing to consider; in Sec's day the track cushions were mostly clay with a 3 1/2 inch cussion, whereas today most tracks have more sand than clay and a 4 1/2 inch cushion.

This is (IMO) the reason that new track records are hard to come by. It is of course safer for the horse.

[fmazur]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Total DRF SR + TV for Triple Crown Winners:

Secretariat	342
War Admiral	325
Citation	322
Affirmed	320
Omaha		315
Count Fleet	313
Gallant Fox	306
Whirlaway	306
Seattle Slew	305
Sir Barton	304
Assault		288

Smarty so far, 213.

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I think Smarty was shorted in his KD race by at least ten points in the variant. Smarty ran the following speed rate/variant starting with his 1st race--106-115-112-115-116-108-100-113. If the KD race was accurate, it would mean that this was the worst race and by a big margine in his career. I just can't buy that. I would put Smarty at 223 to 225 for his two TC races

[cj]

That's the thing with DRF ratings though, there is nothing to debate really. They are made by a formula, no intervention from humans, period. They aren't very good, but in this case, as you say, they are all we have.

[playintheponies]

delayjf wrote:

BUT keep in mind the tremendous move Sec made around the first turn PRIOR to his final fractions. Don't know if the "Pimlico Bias" was in affect or not, if so, Sec's Preakness was all the more impressive.


playintheponies replies:

I am local here at PIM. The first turn is not banked well. Any horse that goes wide on the first turn is deep manure. Secretariat is the ONLY horse in modern times to go wide on the first turn in the Preakness and go on to win.

[delayjf]

Which makes Sec's last to first move even more spectacular.

[fmazur]

I have to disagree with just how impressive the move by Sec. in the Preakness was. I cut my teeth on harness racing and this occurres all the time. Harness horses go a fast 1st quarter to gain position followed by a slow 2nd quarter. Often a harness horse would make his move into this slow 2nd quarter giving the illusion of a fast move. It just isn't so.

Sec. in his Preakness had only five horses to pass, The 2nd quarter was run in 25 seconds. Sec. probably ran the second 1/4 in 24 seconds while the others ran in 25 seconds.

I don't think a 24 second 1/4 mile is all that impressive.

I was much more impressed with the way Sec. ran his Belmont as he drew away from the field after attending fast early fractions.

[trp]

Originally posted by fmazur
I have to disagree with just how impressive the move by Sec. in the Preakness was. I cut my teeth on harness racing and this occurres all the time. Harness horses go a fast 1st quarter to gain position followed by a slow 2nd quarter. Often a harness horse would make his move into this slow 2nd quarter giving the illusion of a fast move. It just isn't so.

Sec. in his Preakness had only five horses to pass, The 2nd quarter was run in 25 seconds. Sec. probably ran the second 1/4 in 24 seconds while the others ran in 25 seconds.

I don't think a 24 second 1/4 mile is all that impressive.

I was much more impressed with the way Sec. ran his Belmont as he drew away from the field after attending fast early fractions.

Using the fractions from the official chart for the Preakness, the 1/4 time was 24 2/5 and the 1/2 time was 48 1/5. That would make the 2nd quarter 23 4/5 seconds. Since Secretariat went from 4th, 5 1/2 lengths back at the 1/4, to 1st at the 1/2, he ran the 2nd quarter in about 22 4/5 seconds.

[fmazur]

I did not have the information as to the 1/4 time only the 1/2 time, but still this means that Sec. walked the 1st quarter in 25 2/5. A 22 4/5 quarter after that is not great. I see 10K claimers do 22 flat all the time and that after a 1st quarter in 22 and change.

Smarty in his 2nd race as a 2YO while going 7 furlongs recorded fractions of 21.4 and 44.1 and the comment on him was "broke slow"

[playintheponies]

you seem bent on showing that Secretariat's times were not all that great.

point 1. the 1st turn at PIM is not banked well and going wide is a recipe for disaster

point 2. analyze the internal fractions as you may, Secretariat's feats have stood the test of time. track records still stand from over 30 years ago. since then there have been major improvements in track surfaces, vetinary medicine, racing silks, etc. his final time in the Belmont was a world record and a track record that is still in place. i don't see anyone threatening to break that track record tomorrow. would not be surprised if it lasts another 30 years.

[thelyingthief]

to all our friends who consider smartyjones the equine realization of jesus christ, abraham, and the buddha.

RAW SPEED COMES FIRST.

believe what you will, but sj's times were lackluster and lethargic, let me repeat that, LETHARGIC, gentlemen.

hosannah to the christchild. alas.

[trp]

Originally posted by fmazur
I did not have the information as to the 1/4 time only the 1/2 time, but still this means that Sec. walked the 1st quarter in 25 2/5. A 22 4/5 quarter after that is not great. I see 10K claimers do 22 flat all the time and that after a 1st quarter in 22 and change.

Smarty in his 2nd race as a 2YO while going 7 furlongs recorded fractions of 21.4 and 44.1 and the comment on him was "broke slow"

Next time you see a 10K claimer run a race remotely like any one of Secretariat's Triple Crown races be sure and let us know.

Barring a disqualification, the winner of every race is the horse with the fastest final time, not the fastest horse at 1/4, 1/2, ...

Besides, Secretariat was not tied to front running. He could run remarkably in just about any style: front runner, presser, closer. Why should he be measured by how fast his early fractions were?

In Secretariat's Preakness, all parties agreed that the electric timer had malfunctioned. The only difference was in the estimated size of the error.

Originally, the 1/4 time was 25 seconds. When the track adjusted the final time down by 3/5 sec, the 1/4 time was also reduced by the same 3/5 sec. The other fractional times were then reduced accordingly. The theory was that the timer had started too early.

Since the DRF time seems more likely to be closer to the actual time than the official time, there's still 1 second to be adjusted somewhere in the fractional times. If the timer did start early, the time of the 1/4 might be another 1 second faster than the official time of 24 2/5.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by thelyingthief
to all our friends who consider smartyjones the equine realization of jesus christ, abraham, and the buddha.

RAW SPEED COMES FIRST.

believe what you will, but sj's times were lackluster and lethargic, let me repeat that, LETHARGIC, gentlemen.

hosannah to the christchild. alas.

How do you explain the fact that nobody beat Smarty until the Belmont? He's slow?

One last question. Did your "RAW SPEED" come up with Birdstone? I doubt it.

[alysheba88]

If Raw times are the be all and end all then I guess the finest racing in the country is at Turf Paradise. Of course I am sure everyone here knows that already. Best horses in the world run there.

[Valuist]

Raw times mean NOTHING. Maybe 10K claimers are running :44s at TuP but not at real racetracks. I guess guys like Davidowitz and Beyer, who've followed the MD circuit for years know nothing. Both say that Secretariat was the greatest horse of all time.