Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-25-2018, 12:57 PM   #181
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post

The oddballs, peak and valley, are a bit interesting. Peak seems to play closest to a mild pace. Valley seems to play closest to a solid pace. This would indicate to me the opening 1/4 is more important than the 2nd quarter in determining the running style of the winner.
I've noticed the same regarding the effect of the 1st call. Could be that a fast 1st quarter sets the stage for the harmful valley pattern, like in the Gimma Stakes at Belmont (if indeed it proves to be a negative pattern)
In some pace methods (Equibase PPs) the 1st quarter is given precedence over the traditional half mile call. Of course, IMO it's best to consider both as well as the final and look for patterns of all 3 calls. The study can show that beyond our initial observations.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 01:36 PM   #182
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
These are the totals:

Code:
Label	Count	Percentage
Hot	14253	0.29
Solid	14959	0.31
Even	7676	0.16
Mild	8050	0.16
Cold	1422	0.03
Valley	1985	0.04
Peak	506	0.01
Thanks for doing the work here, CJ....

Average winner's price would be nice, with the following race labels grouped above in differing colors.....or doing each label would be fine also.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 04:39 PM   #183
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Thanks for doing the work here, CJ....

Average winner's price would be nice, with the following race labels grouped above in differing colors.....or doing each label would be fine also.
I can do average winner's price. I personally don't put a lot of stock in that when studying things that are after the break, but I know some do. I'm doing this to understand how the varying pace scenarios affect the runners in them to better understand the running lines when they run in the future.

As an example of why I don't like payout info for stuff you can't bet, we've all heard about betting the first call leader being profitable, but we also know unless you can identify all the first call leaders it is misleading. Much better is how all of your predicted early leaders do whether they lead or not.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 04:43 PM   #184
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I can do average winner's price. I personally don't put a lot of stock in that when studying things that are after the break, but I know some do. I'm doing this to understand how the varying pace scenarios affect the runners in them to better understand the running lines when they run in the future.

As an example of why I don't like payout info for stuff you can't bet, we've all heard about betting the first call leader being profitable, but we also know unless you can identify all the first call leaders it is misleading. Much better is how all of your predicted early leaders do whether they lead or not.

Agree with everything you said.....But can you do it anyway?
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 04:59 PM   #185
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I can do average winner's price. I personally don't put a lot of stock in that when studying things that are after the break, but I know some do. I'm doing this to understand how the varying pace scenarios affect the runners in them to better understand the running lines when they run in the future.

As an example of why I don't like payout info for stuff you can't bet, we've all heard about betting the first call leader being profitable, but we also know unless you can identify all the first call leaders it is misleading. Much better is how all of your predicted early leaders do whether they lead or not.
Yep, I'll add it next. Might not be today but soon.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 05:24 PM   #186
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Code:
Label	Count	Pct	AvgWPay
Hot	14253	0.29	13.53
Solid	14959	0.31	11.61
Even	7676	0.16	10.20
Mild	8050	0.16	 9.07
Cold	1422	0.03	 8.54
Valley	1985	0.04	 9.93
Peak	506	0.01	11.29
Nice call Randall, interesting.

Last edited by cj; 09-25-2018 at 05:25 PM.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 05:31 PM   #187
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Code:
Label	Count	Pct	AvgWPay
Hot	14253	0.29	13.53
Solid	14959	0.31	11.61
Even	7676	0.16	10.20
Mild	8050	0.16	 9.07
Cold	1422	0.03	 8.54
Valley	1985	0.04	 9.93
Peak	506	0.01	11.29
Nice call Randall, interesting.

Cool beans, CJ.....Look like "Hot" Race Labels--->Hot: Gap1 and Gap2 Hot, will be first point of attack.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-25-2018, 11:58 PM   #188
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
My data suggests:

1. Among races I projected to have a fast or slow pace, on average they DO tend to have fast or slow paces according to pace figures. But as we all know some don't go according to plan.

2. Among races that pace figures suggest were fast to slow early, the winner tends to come from further back or closer up as you'd expect. However, it gets tricky to measure impacts correctly. Large fields tend to have faster paces and vice versa. So you have to control for field size to know how much of where the average winner came from was related to the pace and how much was related to the field size.

3. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest DID go according to plan, sometimes the race flow does not follow the pace figures and projections. How the track was playing or whether there was a dominant speed seems to impact that.

4. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest did NOT go according to plan, the race flow sometimes follows the projection instead of the pace figures. That suggests that sometimes things other than the fractions impact the flow.

Getting at some of those probabilities using your own techniques and figures seems to help me with value judgments.

If I'm projecting a fast pace and given how much pressure there is I'm expecting to be right 60% of the time, and 50% of the time I get the projection right the race falls apart, that means 30% of the time horse A, B, and C are in deep trouble. At least I have a ballpark basis for my thinking instead of just "it looks like a fast pace".
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-26-2018 at 12:02 AM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 04:32 PM   #189
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
What should I do next? Suggestions?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 05:47 PM   #190
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
What should I do next? Suggestions?
You posted these options:

"We can break it down by specific distances later, add more data, surfaces, distances, etc."


So, you've already got down to between 6-7 F races....Next could be surface breakdown, followed by class breakdown---> Claimers and Non-claiming races...BTW, please do avg. winner price as well, in layered Race labels.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 09:47 PM   #191
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
My data suggests:

1. Among races I projected to have a fast or slow pace, on average they DO tend to have fast or slow paces according to pace figures. But as we all know some don't go according to plan.

2. Among races that pace figures suggest were fast to slow early, the winner tends to come from further back or closer up as you'd expect. However, it gets tricky to measure impacts correctly. Large fields tend to have faster paces and vice versa. So you have to control for field size to know how much of where the average winner came from was related to the pace and how much was related to the field size.

3. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest DID go according to plan, sometimes the race flow does not follow the pace figures and projections. How the track was playing or whether there was a dominant speed seems to impact that.

4. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest did NOT go according to plan, the race flow sometimes follows the projection instead of the pace figures. That suggests that sometimes things other than the fractions impact the flow.

Getting at some of those probabilities using your own techniques and figures seems to help me with value judgments.

If I'm projecting a fast pace and given how much pressure there is I'm expecting to be right 60% of the time, and 50% of the time I get the projection right the race falls apart, that means 30% of the time horse A, B, and C are in deep trouble. At least I have a ballpark basis for my thinking instead of just "it looks like a fast pace".
Very enlightening! This is EXACTLY the type of pace analysis that I find most interesting...because of its "practical" value.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 10:08 PM   #192
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Very enlightening! This is EXACTLY the type of pace analysis that I find most interesting...because of its "practical" value.

I can sum up CH's whole post with this---->Τα πολλά λόγια είναι φτωχια.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 10:21 PM   #193
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
I can sum up CH's whole post with this---->Τα πολλά λόγια είναι φτωχια.
You may not believe this...but it's as if Classhandicapper sometimes reads my mind. He says exactly the things that I would like to say...if only I had the time to type at such great length.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 10:36 PM   #194
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You may not believe this...but it's as if Classhandicapper sometimes reads my mind. He says exactly the things that I would like to say...if only I had the time to type at such great length.

Stop......Stop........You're..... ...Killing..........ME....
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-26-2018, 10:57 PM   #195
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Very enlightening! This is EXACTLY the type of pace analysis that I find most interesting...because of its "practical" value.
So what I posted was not? Good to know.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.