|
|
09-24-2018, 05:33 PM
|
#166
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
I understand. I bet there are a lot of races that fall into grey areas between the different patterns and won't be easy to classify. I'm sure the results will be worth the wait.
|
Yep. Trying to be more liberal with the "even race" tag.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 05:33 PM
|
#167
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'm sure that is a big part of it!
|
As well as running such an uneven pattern. The 2 are related.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 06:11 PM
|
#168
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
As well as running such an uneven pattern. The 2 are related.
|
As paradoxical as it may seem, the root of this unevenly run race was the too fast 1st 1/4. The other riders overreacted to it and dug themselves into a hole deep in the valley pattern with the slow 2nd quarter. They figured this pace was going to be too hot for this cheap filly from Finger Lakes and we just have to lay back until she folds in the stretch.
The good thing about these races is that they are extreme examples that bring about the discovery of effects of things like uneven patterns.
Last edited by bobphilo; 09-24-2018 at 06:19 PM.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 06:52 PM
|
#169
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Here is what I have so far to spur some discussion.
Data Set:
January 1, 2015 through most of the Saturday figures...my assistant just submitted a few tracks for that day which aren't included. I have several more years I can add but kept it shorter for time purposes now.
Dirt Sprints, >6f and <7f
None of the races have a missing 1/4 mile figure, 1/2 mile figure, or final time figure due to timing or suspected timing errors.
This gave a total of 48,851 races.
Definitions:
Gap1: 1/4 mile pace figure - 1/2 mile pace figure - Hot: >8
- Even: >=-8 and <=8
- Cold: <-8
Gap2: 1/2 mile pace figure - final time figure - Hot: >4
- Even: >=-4 and <=4
- Cold: <-4
Race Labels:
Hot: Gap1 and Gap2 Hot
Solid: Gap1 or Gap2 Hot, the other Even
Even: Gap1 and Gap2 Even
Mild: Gap1 or Gap2 Even, the other Cold
Cold: Gap1 and Gap2 Cold
Peak: Gap1 Cold, Gap2 Hot
Valley: Gap1 Hot, Gap2 Cold
These are the totals:
Code:
Label Count Percentage
Hot 14253 0.29
Solid 14959 0.31
Even 7676 0.16
Mild 8050 0.16
Cold 1422 0.03
Valley 1985 0.04
Peak 506 0.01
There is a lot to chew on here I hope. We can break it down by specific distances later, add more data, surfaces, distances, etc. But this is a pretty good start IMO. I'm happy to hear any suggestions on the labels but it isn't easy, trust me!
Next step should be to see what wins these race shapes and compare it to the general population.
Last edited by cj; 09-24-2018 at 06:56 PM.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 07:05 PM
|
#170
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
|
I'm looking forward to the break down between turf and dirt. Turf paces can be all over the map and my own research indicates that variations that might impact dirt races often don't impact turf races as much.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 07:38 PM
|
#171
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Good stuff cj. This suggests our observations that the valley pattern is uncommon. I'm eagerly awaiting the next part concerning what the impact values of the different patterns are.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 08:22 PM
|
#172
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
|
Could we have the 7-furlong races investigated separately? After all...this is called the "bastard distance"...and 7 furlongs was the distance of the race in question here.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 08:27 PM
|
#173
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Could we have the 7-furlong races investigated separately? After all...this is called the "bastard distance"...and 7 furlongs was the distance of the race in question here.
|
Patience grasshopper, I've mentioned that already. Gotta build the infrastructure soundly first. 😁
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 08:28 PM
|
#174
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
|
Good stuff so far!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 08:35 PM
|
#175
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Patience grasshopper, I've mentioned that already. Gotta build the infrastructure soundly first. 😁
|
Take your time...we ain't going nowhere.
|
|
|
09-24-2018, 10:16 PM
|
#176
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Take your time...we ain't going nowhere.
|
Here is a look at 7f only, same criteria:
Code:
Label Count Pct
Hot 2112 0.32
Solid 2136 0.32
Even 805 0.12
Mild 1079 0.16
Cold 184 0.03
Valley 295 0.04
Peak 77 0.01
Better stuff tomorrow, just laying the framework.
|
|
|
09-25-2018, 07:22 AM
|
#177
|
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Could we have the 7-furlong races investigated separately? After all...this is called the "bastard distance"...and 7 furlongs was the distance of the race in question here.
|
Totally agree on 7 furlongs being a different animal....
Screen one is my figs for 7 Furs at Bel...
Screen two is my figs for 6 furs at Bel...
Look how much better the 7 & 1 fared running at 7 furs
Until l you deem 6 & 7 are the same at your track....you have to prove it
Mike
|
7.JPG (92.2 KB, 18 views) |
|
6.JPG (84.9 KB, 15 views) |
Last edited by mikesal57; 09-25-2018 at 07:24 AM.
|
|
|
09-25-2018, 09:00 AM
|
#178
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Here is a look at 7f only, same criteria:
Code:
Label Count Pct
Hot 2112 0.32
Solid 2136 0.32
Even 805 0.12
Mild 1079 0.16
Cold 184 0.03
Valley 295 0.04
Peak 77 0.01
Better stuff tomorrow, just laying the framework.
|
Looks pretty similar to the distribution for 6f as far as the relative frequencies of the patterns employed. Now to see if their is a difference in win percentages for the different patterns between the 2 distances.
In other words, the 2 distances are similar in how they are ridden. Next step is to see if their is a difference in success rate of the different patterns between the the 2 distances.
|
|
|
09-25-2018, 09:23 AM
|
#179
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Totally agree on 7 furlongs being a different animal....
Screen one is my figs for 7 Furs at Bel...
Screen two is my figs for 6 furs at Bel...
Look how much better the 7 & 1 fared running at 7 furs
Until l you deem 6 & 7 are the same at your track....you have to prove it
Mike
|
This data suggests that horses have different abilities at 6F vs. 7F . However it is based on using one set of criteria from one piece of software in one race. A larger study may or may not show the same.
Such information can be useful in trying to predict performance at one distance based on performance at the other. What we are trying to study here, however, is how different patterns have different success rates and then whether this varies at different distances and surfaces, which are somewhat different questions.
Last edited by bobphilo; 09-25-2018 at 09:30 AM.
|
|
|
09-25-2018, 11:03 AM
|
#180
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Some data based on the original data set. Got some stuff to do so not sure how much more I'll get to today. Probably best to see what people think. Probably need to generate impact values from this and see what it says but the data seems to flow about as expected---the slower the pace, the better horses near the front do. Not exactly earth shattering news but the numbers are the numbers.
The oddballs, peak and valley, are a bit interesting. Peak seems to play closest to a mild pace. Valley seems to play closest to a solid pace. This would indicate to me the opening 1/4 is more important than the 2nd quarter in determining the running style of the winner.
Code:
P1 Avg P2 Avg BL1 Avg BL2 Avg W2W Top2
ALL 0.68 0.78 1.98 1.40 0.29 0.49
Hot 0.60 0.70 3.19 2.27 0.19 0.35
Solid 0.69 0.78 1.87 1.43 0.29 0.48
Even 0.74 0.82 1.19 0.86 0.35 0.58
Mild 0.76 0.84 1.07 0.63 0.38 0.60
Cold 0.79 0.86 0.71 0.50 0.45 0.71
Peak 0.76 0.81 1.20 1.37 0.40 0.63
Valley 0.68 0.80 1.97 0.87 0.25 0.45
P1 average = position in the field after 1/4 mile expressed as a percentage to account for varying field sizes. (ex: 1st - 1.00, last = 0.00 regardless of field size, 4th of 11 = 0.70)
P2 average = same as above but after a half mile
BL1 average = average beaten lengths after 1/4 mile
BL2 average = average beaten lengths after 1/2 mile
W2W = winners that led after the opening 1/4 mile
Top2 = winners in top two after opening 1/4 mile
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|