"I'm disappointed with the trip", Brown said - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

cj · 05-20-2018, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Coming into and around the first turn, Mike Smith seemed intent on making the lead...and Ortiz pushed Good Magic into the impending early speed duel from the inside. When you say that Ortiz had "no choice"...do you mean that he couldn't sit a length or so behind Justify in the early going, and then try to gain on the outside as the two horses separated from the rest of the pack? Was it "good strategy" to engage the 2/5 undefeated Derby winner in a nose-to-nose speed duel while buried on the inside of the track?

Did Ortiz really think that he was going to race Justify into the ground early...and then draw out and beat the rest of the field?

Coming in most only thought two horses could win, so if you beat the other one you probably do think there is a great chance you will indeed win the race.

It would have been tough to tuck in behind and work his way outside. The 3rd and 4th horses were pretty close up, not like they were gapped much even with a speed duel on. Without one, they are probably even closer.

thaskalos · 05-20-2018, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Coming in most only thought two horses could win, so if you beat the other one you probably do think there is a great chance you will indeed win the race.

It would have been tough to tuck in behind and work his way outside. The 3rd and 4th horses were pretty close up, not like they were gapped much even with a speed duel on. Without one, they are probably even closer.

If Ortiz actually thought that he gave his horse a chance to win the race with the ride that he gave...then he needs to have his head examined. Good Magic had no chance of surviving a speed duel against Justify. IMO...you let Justify take the early lead, and if the Derby winner is on his game...then at least you secure the place money. If Justify is OFF his game, then you have a fair chance of running him down late. But in no way do you try to run that horse into the ground in an early speed duel.

cj · 05-20-2018, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If Ortiz actually thought that he gave his horse a chance to win the race with the ride that he gave...then he needs to have his head examined. Good Magic had no chance of surviving a speed duel against Justify. IMO...you let Justify take the early lead, and if the Derby winner is on his game...then at least you secure the place money. If Justify is OFF his game, then you have a fair chance of running him down late. But in no way do you try to run that horse into the ground in an early speed duel.

He said what he was going to do ahead of time. I don't think he had a chance in either case. He was stuck in role of either pressing and losing or chasing and losing, neither ideal. At least he took the aggressive tactic. I personally like that, but I do understand the other side.

thaskalos · 05-20-2018, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

He said what he was going to do ahead of time. I don't think he had a chance in either case. He was stuck in role of either pressing and losing or chasing and losing, neither ideal. At least he took the aggressive tactic. I personally like that, but I do understand the other side.

IMO...the "aggressive tactic" isn't commendable, unless it helps the horse to its best possible finish. In this regard...I have to call Ortiz's riding tactics a failure.

Grits · 05-20-2018, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

He said what he was going to do ahead of time. I don't think he had a chance in either case. He was stuck in role of either pressing and losing or chasing and losing, neither ideal. At least he took the aggressive tactic. I personally like that, but I do understand the other side.

What? The other side being...

Unemployed!

cj · 05-20-2018, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the "aggressive tactic" isn't commendable, unless it helps the horse to its best possible finish. In this regard...I have to call Ortiz's riding tactics a failure.

I don't want riders trying for a best possible finish, I want them to ride to win. We get enough of that riding for checks the rest of the week. In big races, go for it!

cj · 05-20-2018, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

What? The other side being...

Unemployed!

The other side being go cautious and maybe finish second.

clicknow · 05-20-2018, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

Clicknow, one can understand the dirt stat on 2 weeks rest would be poor. How many total such races on dirt? Seriously... He's long had more turf runners, so why go with an obscure stat that you are aware isn't going to help you. Cloud Computing, of course, was rested. Tell me something I don't know...

Clearly he has had more success on turf so far. (I'm a big fan of his turf horses.) But I'm a horse fan, not a trainer fan.

But if I were a trainer fan, I'd be no different than the many owners who still see him as a trainer who has had remarkable success on turf, and maybe don't send him their dirt horses, or those who don't bet his dirt horses to win in graded stakes at Saratoga, etc.

As for Ortiz, he did a great job for him in the KY Derby, and I guess that's why Brown stuck with him for the Preakness.

"I tried to take back a little, but the pace was too fast," Ortiz said. "I made my run the same time he did, but I didn't have the horse underneath me" ---- this later (after Brown criticized the ride publically) turned into Ortiz apologizing to say it was all his fault and he didn’t follow instructions.

It is understandable why many perceive it was poor form for Brown not to keep his criticism of his jockey IN PRIVATE. I think the overall sentiment is that Ortiz did everything he could to win the race but just didn't have the horse to out-duel Justify.

thaskalos · 05-20-2018, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I don't want riders trying for a best possible finish, I want them to ride to win. We get enough of that riding for checks the rest of the week. In big races, go for it!

What chance did you give to Ortiz winning the race yesterday, once you saw the speed duel develop? You actually thought that Ortiz "rode to win" in that race? When I saw Good Magic and Justify hook up early...I predicted that Ortiz would finish second to last.

cj · 05-20-2018, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What chance did you give to Ortiz winning the race yesterday, once you saw the speed duel develop? You actually thought that Ortiz "rode to win" in that race? When I saw Good Magic and Justify hook up early...I predicted that Ortiz would finish second to last.

Had he been able to get in front instead of pinned in a little behind I'd have given him a 30% chance. Justify hadn't been pressured by a horse as good as Good Magic yet and it was always possible he would crack first. As I've mentioned, not getting his nose in front was the part that probably doomed him. He got beat, what, a length? He is a very good horse.

Grits · 05-20-2018, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Had he been able to get in front instead of pinned in a little behind I'd have given him a 30% chance. Justify hadn't been pressured by a horse as good as Good Magic yet and it was always possible he would crack first. As I've mentioned, not getting his nose in front was the part that probably doomed him. He got beat, what, a length? He is a very good horse.

Cj, wow! Only a 30% chance?

That sure doesn't sound like you think he is a very good horse at all. It really doesn't even with how the two horses ran in the Derby.

thaskalos · 05-20-2018, 04:40 PM

If Good Magic runs in the Belmont...he will be completely out of my trifecta tickets.

clicknow · 05-20-2018, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When I saw Good Magic and Justify hook up early...I predicted that Ortiz would finish second to last.

When I saw Classic Empire hook up with Always Dreaming right out of the gate last year, duel that one and then have to take on another horse (CC) in the stretch, I thought he would lose by a lot worse than a head. He was gallant. One could say Classic Empire inherited that dueling job the same way GM did....somebody has to do it, and if they aren't the "ultra top dog", it's usually going to hurt them.
It's kinda weird that this year, Brown loses when last year he wins under the opposite situation......his horse benefits from classic empire doing all the heavy lifting for 3/4 of the race and didn't have that last bit of oooph to kick by.

This is horse racing. Highs, lows, shoulda-coulda stuff.

cj · 05-20-2018, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits

Cj, wow! Only a 30% chance?

That sure doesn't sound like you think he is a very good horse at all. It really doesn't even with how the two horses ran in the Derby.

I think he is a very good horse, but he isn't as good as Justify, that is all. Dueling with a better horse is usually a recipe for disaster, so saying 30% gives him a much better chance than most horses in his situation.

That said, letting him go and trying to catch him later, in my opinion, was at best a 5 or 10% chance to win. You're basically just hoping Justify wasn't on his game at that point.

Grits · 05-20-2018, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If Good Magic runs in the Belmont...he will be completely out of my trifecta tickets.

Paraphrasing. Chad has stated, "win or lose" (the Preakness), Good Magic is not going in the Belmont. He has not struck me as a 1 1/2 horse."