Has the Derby become too predictable?

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's just become another race. We all run into places where it seems the favorites are absolutely invincible. The Derby is getting that dreadful feel. Payoffs are defended by the chalk crowd. Whatever!!

[clocker7]

The biggest sucker win bet in racing is a closer in the KD at less than 12-1 or thereabouts.

[Denny]

[quote=dilanesp;2313860]

Originally Posted by Denny

Really? I've seen 6 favorites win in the pick 6 sequence any number of times.

And I have seen pocket aces at a poker table win 6 times in a row- it is the favorite.

I am convinced that there's just a fundamental divide between the numerate and the innumerate in life. 6 favorites in a row isn't even nearly as rare as some of the results random variance can produce. Lukas had 6 straight triple crown race wins and 7 of 8 with 5 different horses, only 2 of them favorites. Calvin Borel rode 3 Derby winners in 4 years.

And right now, we could find a roulette wheel in Vegas which hit the same number 5 times in the last 12 spins. The wheels have displays that show that.

I don't think some of your comparisons apply.

Roulette? Poker? - these have fixed odds and could be random variance. NOT horseracing.

Lukas was the best trainer in the game and had the best horses. But it's a reasonable comparison and I'll give you that one even though it's not the same. Some of his horses won more than once, they weren't all different.

6 favorites in a P6? - When did you ever see a P6 with 18-20 horses in every race?

The odds of 6 favorites in the Derby is more than just random!

[Franco Santiago]

[quote=Denny;2313785]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Sample sizes are too small. Most likely the string of favorites is random variance.

Do you realize what the mathematical odds are of 6 favorites in a row?

In a twenty horse field?

Even if we take the old standard of favorites winning 1 in 3 (which is extremely generous for that size field) - the odds would be something like -

1/(3x3x3x3x3x3) {1 divided by 3 to the 6th)

1 / 729 = 0.00137

0.137 %

That's some "random variance" you have there!

That's not that unrealistic of an occurrence. If airplanes crashed at that rate, no one would fly.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Denny

Since the new Churchill Downs points system has gone into effect, ALL six Derbies run have all been WON by the FAVORITE.

Some questions:

Has it become too predictable?

Will people start to find it boring?

What do you think?

Would you leave it alone or make a change to the point system?

This is really interesting to me. As I recall, favorites before the point system won at a far lower rate. Anyone have that rate? And the rate with just 15+ horses or such?

It doesn't seem to me that the explanation of cutting out the cheap speed would lead to this result. Has the pace really slowed that much since? Has every winner since been the type to be negatively affected by a horse burning up front?

But I guess that or something else explains this. Surely it's more than mere coincidence. Is this what CD was aiming for? Has it made it a better race?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

This is really interesting to me. As I recall, favorites before the point system won at a far lower rate. Anyone have that rate? And the rate with just 15+ horses or such?

It doesn't seem to me that the explanation of cutting out the cheap speed would lead to this result. Has the pace really slowed that much since? Has every winner since been the type to be negatively affected by a horse burning up front?

But I guess that or something else explains this. Surely it's more than mere coincidence. Is this what CD was aiming for? Has it made it a better race?

Random. Variance.

[PuckLuck]

Originally Posted by Denny

Since the new Churchill Downs points system has gone into effect, ALL six Derbies run have all been WON by the FAVORITE.

Some questions:

Has it become too predictable?

Will people start to find it boring?

What do you think?

Would you leave it alone or make a change to the point system?

I think good trainers have found the right way to train good horses leading into the derby. Also maybe its the trend like we saw in the 70's and its just a cycle of how this type of thing works out.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

How much fun was it when a horse like Mine That Bird won the Derby? When favorites win, the 3-races-a-year folks are more likely to do well and keep coming.

[NJ Stinks]

As somebody said and I'll repeat here, no filly can win the Derby under today's point system. That stinks and certainly does make the race less competitive.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by Denny

Since the new Churchill Downs points system has gone into effect, ALL six Derbies run have all been WON by the FAVORITE.

Some questions:

Has it become too predictable?

Will people start to find it boring?

What do you think?

Would you leave it alone or make a change to the point system?

Has it become too predictable?
Yes

Will people start to find it boring?
CDI management is boring, There wasn't a single handicapping contest in the country including CDI/The Kentucky Derby, restricted ADW signals and broadcast rights, compounded by poor non eventful coverage, what the hell is this company thinking?

The derby wasn't boring, never will be.

What do you think?
Would you leave it alone or make a change to the point system?
The point system was designed by industry to keep the small guy surprise factor to a minimum, it's working as intended. I dislike the point system.

[Pensacola Pete]

More whales/CRW/whatever mean more money on the "correct" horse, and more favorites.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by NJ Stinks

As somebody said and I'll repeat here, no filly can win the Derby under today's point system. That stinks and certainly does make the race less competitive.

I think Winning Colors would have won her Derby under any system conceivable.

[Denny]

Originally Posted by NJ Stinks

As somebody said and I'll repeat here, no filly can win the Derby under today's point system. That stinks and certainly does make the race less competitive.

A filly could run if she finished 1st or second in one of the major preps.
She'd have just as many points as most of the top contenders.
The only thing preventing that is the owners/trainers of fillies not wanting to run in a prep.
Not Churchill.

Though i think they like it better without the threat of a filly breaking down as happened with Eight Belles. So it's safer not to have a filly in the race.
Just a thought.

[Denny]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

How much fun was it when a horse like Mine That Bird won the Derby? When favorites win, the 3-races-a-year folks are more likely to do well and keep coming.

Doesn't an unpredictable result spice things up once in a while?
Big payoffs also make headlines.

[Denny]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think Winning Colors would have won her Derby under any system conceivable.

Absolutely! She would have qualified with her win in the SA Deby.