Derby Longshot

[Buckeye]

Flameaway was 42-1 in pool 4 . . .

Sounds reasonable.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

Flameaway was 42-1 in pool 4 . . .

Sounds reasonable.

I like Flameaway a lot but don't think he will get the distance.

[Spalding No!]

Much better chance to win the Pat Day Mile, but Lone Sailor has few things going for him that could land him a placing.

Breezing like a freight train in last 3 works, all at Churchill.

Has a couple of better than looked races over Churchill Downs main track, waiting behind horses while full of run in the Street Sense (lost by a head) and getting bothered by a fallen rival on the first turn of the Kentucky Jockey Club (rallied late in the middle of the track to get by tired ones).

Also owns a sloppy track romp when breaking his maiden at Saratoga (I think the weather forecast might have suggested rain?).

Also, possibly has the best bottom side if you follow pedigrees. 4th dam is the blue hen mare Courtly Dee (I think every female descendant from her has black type in both its race record and produce record).

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Courtly Dee

there are some excellent broodmare of the years in the lineage of some of the derby runners this year. Courtly Dee being one of course. Mendelssohn's Leslie Lady, and the great Oatsee, Shackleford's dam for Promises Fulfilled.
Something I always look for first, trying to find the elite runners before the prep races are run.

This really is a pretty nice group of horses this year!

[Robert Fischer]

He's a good horse and he's going to be a BIG price.

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

I like Flameaway a lot but don't think he will get the distance.

That's kind of my feeling. I might have him in the Top-10 on pure quality, but he seems to need a forward-favoring soft pace to hit the board going 10 furlongs vs a Derby field.


I may throw together a couple 'scenario' tickets. One with some priced pace-pressers and one with some priced closers.

[nijinski]

Keeping an eye on Hofburg
Love the breeding and the connections .for the classic distance .

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

there are some excellent broodmare of the years in the lineage of some of the derby runners this year. Courtly Dee being one of course. Mendelssohn's Leslie Lady, and the great Oatsee, Shackleford's dam for Promises Fulfilled.
Something I always look for first, trying to find the elite runners before the prep races are run.

This really is a pretty nice group of horses this year!

The longshots in this year's field as a whole seem to hold an edge over the favorites in terms of the deeper bloodlines.

In addition to Lone Sailor and Courtly Dee (Althea, Bayern, Arch, Atelier, Twining etc.):

Instilled Regard's 4th dam is the Phipps Stable's Blitey (Dancing Spree, Heavenly Prize, Pure Prize, Dancing Forever, etc.).

Hofburg's 4th dam is the Niarchos foundation mare Coup de Folie (Machiavellian, Coup de Genie, Denebola, Bago, etc.).

Combatant's 4th dam is top Canadian Broodmare of the Year Fanfreluche (L'Enjoleur, La Voyageuse, Medaille D'Or, Holy Roman Emperor, et.c).

From a whole pedigree standpoint, you could do a lot worse than:

Hofburg - sired by Tapit over the Coup de Folie family. In the past 4 runnings of the Belmont, Tapit is responsible for 3 wins and 2 placings.

Instilled Regard - sired by Arch, so he crosses Courtly Dee with Blitey.

[depalma113]

Solomini

He's a Curlin. He's the other Baffert. He's hit the board in every start.

[upthecreek]

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/props

Some interesting props

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/props

Some interesting props

Yes. Interesting.

I might go to Vegas for the Derby next year.

[PoloUK6108]

Noble Indy, Flo is on fire. The dark Pletch

[clicknow]

I assume everyone is basing this on a dry track, right?

My wet track picks would be entirely different. I haven't looked at weather report, but I got my mudders lined up just in case.

[PhantomOnTour]

Enticed

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by nijinski

Keeping an eye on Hofburg
Love the breeding and the connections .for the classic distance .

Hey there! Good to see your name here again!

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I assume everyone is basing this on a dry track, right?

My wet track picks would be entirely different. I haven't looked at weather report, but I got my mudders lined up just in case.

Long range forecast is for sunny skies