The same old discussion

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Win betting vs win/place betting has been discussed on this site numerous times with good points on either side. However, is it true that in studies conducted through out the years that win only wagering will out perform win/place betting?

My buddy is an excellent handicapper , very selective and disciplined who wagers win only and occasional cold doubles. He had a real good Saratoga meeting connecting on a high percentage of winners (mostly in the 3/1 to 12/1 range). It was fun to hear of his victories and his bankroll increase. I admired his discipline and purpose as he never would wander from his win only format despite a couple of second place finishes with double digit payouts.

Since the ending of the Saratoga meeting he has run into a period of 'seconditus' as his selections are getting nipped at the wire or just falling short at the finish. NOW HERES THE POINT he has not wavered in his conviction of sticking to his game plan despite the losing run thus proving the point that it is a players confidence and belief in his convictions that are a huge asset in the psychological aspect of this game. Others complain, he stays focused Now that impresses me!

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Win betting vs win/place betting has been discussed on this site numerous times with good points on either side. However, is it true that in studies conducted through out the years that win only wagering will out perform win/place betting?

My buddy is an excellent handicapper , very selective and disciplined who wagers win only and occasional cold doubles. He had a real good Saratoga meeting connecting on a high percentage of winners (mostly in the 3/1 to 12/1 range). It was fun to hear of his victories and his bankroll increase. I admired his discipline and purpose as he never would wander from his win only format despite a couple of second place finishes with double digit payouts.

Since the ending of the Saratoga meeting he has run into a period of 'seconditus' as his selections are getting nipped at the wire or just falling short at the finish. NOW HERES THE POINT he has not wavered in his conviction of sticking to his game plan despite the losing run thus proving the point that it is a players confidence and belief in his convictions that are a huge asset in the psychological aspect of this game. Others complain, he stays focused Now that impresses me!

As primarily a win/place bettor I like this discussion. Just from the anecdotal evidence, it seems that W/P "only" is a small minority on PA. My written rule is Win only at odds below 6-1, and then win/place above. However, written or not, I sometimes bet to place at 9/2 if there's no odds-on favorite. My place betting is more for peace of mind, when seconditis hits me. Show betting is rare for me, but a 35-1 show bet over the weekend turned a losing day into almost breakeven. In that particular case it was one unit win bet/ two units show. My usual on show is 2-3XWin bet. From statistical studies I've read, place odds are usually Win odds/3, and Show are Win odds/6. That holds up pretty well. Betting to show is fairly new for me, and some of the comments on here made me look at it in certain situations.

[green80]

I have checked this many times before. I you keep a record of a hundred or more bets the win only will almost always win out. Keep in mind you have to figure 2 units to win vs 1 unit win and 1 unit place. There will be times when some nice paying place horses will skew the results for a while but the win only usually has a much higher ROI.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Then it is basically a decision of less bankroll downswings with win/place betting as opposed to the longer losing streaks associated with win only wagering.

[AndyC]

A win and a place bet are two different bets that need to be evaluated individually. Sometimes a win bet is warranted but not a place bet and vice versa. Sometimes both are warranted.

While I believe the psychological aspect of this game is a big factor I don't think that making bad bets is the answer to psychological issues.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by AndyC

A win and a place bet are two different bets that need to be evaluated individually. Sometimes a win bet is warranted but not a place bet and vice versa. Sometimes both are warranted.

While I believe the psychological aspect of this game is a big factor I don't think that making bad bets is the answer to psychological issues.

Point well taken, for example when a price horse is wagered win/place in a race where the favorite and/or second choice are fundamentally weak and figure to be out of the win/place slot. yes, you have to pick your spots but they are available.

[AltonKelsey]

Whats commonly overlooked in these discussions is the utility value of a bet that pays off more often.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you never wager on exotics I see no issue with betting to place. On races I don't participate in exotics I bet 2 units to win and 1 unit to place on odds 4-1 and up. Odds below that are win only. This is just a basic 3 unit method that is meant to be independent and self sustaining from other bets. If you have a 25-32% win ratio and a 40-50% WP ration this makes absolute sense IMO.

But I only bet like that anymore when I don't participate in exotics. Because I structure exotic bets around higher odds I also expect to get a high payoff for a 2nd place finish. That is all the hedging I need. In these races I bet strictly to win also.

[classhandicapper]

There's nothing wrong with place bets. There's actually evidence the place pool is less efficient than the win pool. I make win/place bets and just place bets all the time if I think there's value in that pool. I actually prefer the lower volatility of cashing more bets.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There's nothing wrong with place bets. There's actually evidence the place pool is less efficient than the win pool. I make win/place bets and just place bets all the time if I think there's value in that pool. I actually prefer the lower volatility of cashing more bets.

The operative words being when there is value. A less efficient pool cuts both ways. To blindly bet place with every win bet you will get your share of way overbet place horses. In my research the value in place bets diminishes as the win odds increase.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Whats commonly overlooked in these discussions is the utility value of a bet that pays off more often.

Absolutely. Would you still bet place if your ROI was .96 when your win ROI is 1.15?

[Tom]

I bet 1 unit to win and 3 units to place at odds of 9-2 and over.
Been doing for years now. My records show that my selections at over 9-2 place twice as often as they win ( give or take, but about twice as often in the long term). Being lazy, I figured it would be harder to improve my handicapping than it would be to take advantage of my known capabilities.

The idea came to me from Mark Cramer who used the idea of longshots placing twice as often as winning to evaluate his small smapole results.

Records show I am ahead doing this this way.

[Redboard]

If I just bet to win, I will most assuredly get seconditis but I don't bet to place. I'll bet 2 units to win on a value play, and 2 units exacta with my value play to come in second and usually two favorites on top. The exacta(even at 1 unit since one of the exactas must lose) always pays more than betting that 2 units to place.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Redboard

If I just bet to win, I will most assuredly get seconditis but I don't bet to place. I'll bet 2 units to win on a value play, and 2 units exacta with my value play to come in second and usually two favorites on top. The exacta(even at 1 unit since one of the exactas must lose) always pays more than betting that 2 units to place.

I do pretty much the same thing. It's the old Marc Cramer idea of using the exacta as a place bet.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The operative words being when there is value. A less efficient pool cuts both ways. To blindly bet place with every win bet you will get your share of way overbet place horses. In my research the value in place bets diminishes as the win odds increase.

I agree.

I am more likely to take $3.00 to place on a horse I think is better than even money to win than I am to bet some long shot to place.