My Definition of a Bounce

[JohnGalt1]

Some say a horse that runs it's fastest time is due to bounce.

I have won many races when horses run their fastest race during a form cycle. The horse is improving and is in form. Even if it runs a slower race, the fast race is much faster than the competition and may still win or place.

My definition of a bounce is a horse that runs a close hard run race after a long layoff. And it doesn't have to be the horse's fastest race. Just an up close race for at least the first 3 calls.


Race 6 Saturday Churchill, the Humana.

Finley'sluckycharm ran 4/7 a head and neck through the whole 7f race.

Previous race 2/13 is not a long layoff to the 4/7 race.

American Gal ran in the same 4/7 race, neck and neck with the

Previous race was 8/5/17, IS a long lay off.

The is a candidate for a bounce. Not saying she will, but if she does, then she would be a strong candidate to run a good race next time. I would consider her to be a Bounce Bounce Back bet.

If she finishes 10 points slower Saturday and loses by 5-10 lengths, in her next race betters will use the recent 5/5 race for her pace rating.

I would put a notation of a BBB and rate the 4/7 race.

Ray Taulbot wrote this many years ago in American Turf Monthly.

[thaskalos]

Some horses habitually run bad races after their best ones. In such cases...I don't expect these horses to run back-to-back sharp races...without concerning myself about whether this outcome is a byproduct of a "bounce", or of trainer intention.

I don't consider a horse to be a candidate for a subsequent "bounce" unless the horse's most recent race was the fastest of his past performance record, AND the horse also ran its best PACE rating in the same race. In such a case...the overexertion both early and late would worry me greatly...and I would demand the sort of price on this horse that I would seldom get.

[jb729]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Some horses habitually run bad races after their best ones. In such cases...I don't expect these horses to run back-to-back sharp races...without concerning myself about whether this outcome is a byproduct of a "bounce", or of trainer intention.

This. Certain horses can handle big efforts and be good as gold in 2-3 weeks, and others are more fragile where a big effort requires more recovery. Each horse is unique. Bounce is a real thing but it should not be applied black/white.

If a horse has shown a very up-and-down, inconsistent record over his last 8-10 starts, they are a very easy toss for me if they are coming off a big effort on short rest.

[Denny]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Some horses habitually run bad races after their best ones. In such cases...I don't expect these horses to run back-to-back sharp races...without concerning myself about whether this outcome is a byproduct of a "bounce", or of trainer intention.

I don't consider a horse to be a candidate for a subsequent "bounce" unless the horse's most recent race was the fastest of his past performance record, AND the horse also ran its best PACE rating in the same race. In such a case...the overexertion both early and late would worry me greatly...and I would demand the sort of price on this horse that I would seldom get.

Under what condition, besides price, would you consider a play?

Would several weeks off (if so, how many?) let you consider playing the horse right back?

[kdavis7837]

Bounce is not an easy thing to determine, it depends on many different conditions, Age, Surface, Distance Ect. A old guy at the Track once told me a horse will bounce when he bounces and don't anticipate it until it happens, probably lost a few tickets but how many did he cash by not expecting the bounce? If a young horse suddenly runs a big one, way beyond anything he has run in the past, is he improving or has he topped? 2 or 3 or more Tops not unusual for young 3 yr olds. But if the older cheap claimer runs a big one did he suddenly drink from the fountain of youth or can you expect him to revert back to his normal, was he fresh off a layoff and battle hard first race back? so many different situations and conditions All you can do is look at PP's and the Trainers % in this or that condition or situation. I don't think this is something that has any defined metrics that can be applied to every race

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Some say a horse that runs it's fastest time is due to bounce.

I have won many races when horses run their fastest race during a form cycle. The horse is improving and is in form. Even if it runs a slower race, the fast race is much faster than the competition and may still win or place.

My definition of a bounce is a horse that runs a close hard run race after a long layoff. And it doesn't have to be the horse's fastest race. Just an up close race for at least the first 3 calls.


Race 6 Saturday Churchill, the Humana.

Finley'sluckycharm ran 4/7 a head and neck through the whole 7f race.

Previous race 2/13 is not a long layoff to the 4/7 race.

American Gal ran in the same 4/7 race, neck and neck with the

Previous race was 8/5/17, IS a long lay off.

The is a candidate for a bounce. Not saying she will, but if she does, then she would be a strong candidate to run a good race next time. I would consider her to be a Bounce Bounce Back bet.

If she finishes 10 points slower Saturday and loses by 5-10 lengths, in her next race betters will use the recent 5/5 race for her pace rating.

I would put a notation of a BBB and rate the 4/7 race.

Ray Taulbot wrote this many years ago in American Turf Monthly.

While I truly believe horses can react off of huge efforts, they are animals after all and not machines, I believe the term "bounce" is often used as a crutch to explain why a horse who performed poorly when expected to run well when more identifiable factors are not easily apparent to the handicapper. Not saying you are doing that, just that the term is overused and hard to quantify when it does actually happen.

I used to be in the bounce camp, friends of mine who are much better handicappers, set me on a better path. Its hard to even quantify why a horse would bounce anymore with the average spacing of racing nearing 50 days.

Now to your specific example.

It is a long layoff and a pretty quick turnaround of less than 30 days, so if she runs poorly I suppose if everything else on the surface cannot explain the reasoning then its possible.

That being said I would be shocked if it does happen, in fact this is my single in the pick 4 that starts in the 5th.

Finleysluckycharm ran a super race, though she was on the better part of the track that day she did attend a very hot pace and still won by a head. American Gal was on that same pace and was beat a head. The trainer is very good 2nd off a long layoff. The last time the 1 horse had the rail she got beat at Saratoga at even money and with American Gal on the outside she can do the stalking.

The unknown to me is Sky Diamonds who has dirtied form facing better horses and some average setups. I wont be shocked if she wins.

[JohnGalt1]

Good comments here.

I forgot to add that I will pass this race, as I will pass most races Friday and Saturday.

As to this race I think the and will run the same race and will cook each other, the giving way first.

I don't know who will get them and the other horses, so will pass.