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Old 01-14-2022, 12:01 PM   #16
turfeyejoe
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Late pick 4 Friday

As a gesture to show I wasn't merely redboarding, I will provide my pre-race analysis of Friday's late pick 4 with a focus on horses likely to offer value. No need to waste time extoling the virtues of the likely favorites.

Race 6: Ohio-bred 5-Shanghai Prince has been almost exclusively sprinting but tries a route here. Dangerous for barn that is 3 for 9 last 14 days and jockey-trainer combo that has produced 10 wins from 20 starters the past 60 days. Looking at 6-Justenufftuff, I'm unsure how 4k claimers at former Fairmount Park and 5K claimers at Hawthorne fit with first-level allowance types at MVR but this small barn does well with its few runners and Bris late pace figs indicate this one will benefit if there's a speed duel.

Race 7: 8-Miss Treated Stars drops from open company to Ohio-bred for barn that's 18 percent, $2.61 ROI the past 30 days. 3-My Belle Michelle owns 5 wins locally, is fresh and has only run twice at this bottom level. Has a chance at good price.

Race 8: 4-Chardon shows fairly recent sharp 4F work from gate and gets subtle rider shift from D. Smith, one of worst on the grounds, to the competent Aviles. 3-Nan's Rose shows dull running lines but is wake-up candidate running for a tag for the first time.

Race 9: Top local rider Leon somehow lands on Turfway shipper 4-Majestic Ice, who is making first start for barn that has been idle recently but is high-percentage over the long term. Suspect this one will run much better than recent form indicates. 11-Dudes Lawyer drops a notch on the class ladder after good performance and figures to be forwardly placed for barn winning at 19 percent, $2.32 ROI at the meet.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:14 PM   #17
mountainman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turfeyejoe View Post
As a gesture to show I wasn't merely redboarding, I will provide my pre-race analysis of Friday's late pick 4 with a focus on horses likely to offer value. No need to waste time extoling the virtues of the likely favorites.

Race 6: Ohio-bred 5-Shanghai Prince has been almost exclusively sprinting but tries a route here. Dangerous for barn that is 3 for 9 last 14 days and jockey-trainer combo that has produced 10 wins from 20 starters the past 60 days. Looking at 6-Justenufftuff, I'm unsure how 4k claimers at former Fairmount Park and 5K claimers at Hawthorne fit with first-level allowance types at MVR but this small barn does well with its few runners and Bris late pace figs indicate this one will benefit if there's a speed duel.

Race 7: 8-Miss Treated Stars drops from open company to Ohio-bred for barn that's 18 percent, $2.61 ROI the past 30 days. 3-My Belle Michelle owns 5 wins locally, is fresh and has only run twice at this bottom level. Has a chance at good price.

Race 8: 4-Chardon shows fairly recent sharp 4F work from gate and gets subtle rider shift from D. Smith, one of worst on the grounds, to the competent Aviles. 3-Nan's Rose shows dull running lines but is wake-up candidate running for a tag for the first time.

Race 9: Top local rider Leon somehow lands on Turfway shipper 4-Majestic Ice, who is making first start for barn that has been idle recently but is high-percentage over the long term. Suspect this one will run much better than recent form indicates. 11-Dudes Lawyer drops a notch on the class ladder after good performance and figures to be forwardly placed for barn winning at 19 percent, $2.32 ROI at the meet.
No need, dude. I believe you weren't redboarding. Good luck with your picks. Respect.

Last edited by mountainman; 01-14-2022 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:32 PM   #18
mountainman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turfeyejoe View Post
As a gesture to show I wasn't merely redboarding, I will provide my pre-race analysis of Friday's late pick 4 with a focus on horses likely to offer value. No need to waste time extoling the virtues of the likely favorites.

Race 6: Ohio-bred 5-Shanghai Prince has been almost exclusively sprinting but tries a route here. Dangerous for barn that is 3 for 9 last 14 days and jockey-trainer combo that has produced 10 wins from 20 starters the past 60 days. Looking at 6-Justenufftuff, I'm unsure how 4k claimers at former Fairmount Park and 5K claimers at Hawthorne fit with first-level allowance types at MVR but this small barn does well with its few runners and Bris late pace figs indicate this one will benefit if there's a speed duel.

Race 7: 8-Miss Treated Stars drops from open company to Ohio-bred for barn that's 18 percent, $2.61 ROI the past 30 days. 3-My Belle Michelle owns 5 wins locally, is fresh and has only run twice at this bottom level. Has a chance at good price.

Race 8: 4-Chardon shows fairly recent sharp 4F work from gate and gets subtle rider shift from D. Smith, one of worst on the grounds, to the competent Aviles. 3-Nan's Rose shows dull running lines but is wake-up candidate running for a tag for the first time.

Race 9: Top local rider Leon somehow lands on Turfway shipper 4-Majestic Ice, who is making first start for barn that has been idle recently but is high-percentage over the long term. Suspect this one will run much better than recent form indicates. 11-Dudes Lawyer drops a notch on the class ladder after good performance and figures to be forwardly placed for barn winning at 19 percent, $2.32 ROI at the meet.
Fwiw...i think, for various reasons, that miss treated star has a huge chance...
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Old 01-15-2022, 01:10 PM   #19
mountainman
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Happy, but astonished ,that 2nd race stayed "as is."
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Old 01-24-2022, 11:54 PM   #20
mountainman
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Actspectation (14.20 race 5 today) great illustration of inherent value in keeping bias notes. Aside from the drop, presence of weak favorite, and distinct possibility of speeds backing up to him, the horse suffered murderous rail trips last pair on courses that strongly favored wide moves.

More than willing to share my bias notes upon request, guys.
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