Who makes the morning line odds and what info do they use?

[castaway01]

Some people find the morning line a helpful guide as to whether a race is playable. That is why it's still around. That and tradition. If racetracks thought dropping the morning line would raise handle they'd have done so 50 years ago.

However, for all the people saying it's inaccurate and meaningless---if your gambling competition is using something inaccurate and meaningless to influence their wagers, why in the world would you want to get rid of it? I've yet to see a logical counterargument to that, in this thread or anywhere else.

[v j stauffer]

IMO the morning line and deviations from it could be the single most important handicapping factor of all. A sure fire way to point to very reliable betting opportunities. An accurate morning line could be the single most powerful road to riches.

However, that line MUST be produced by only one person. YOU.

If you have a circuit you feel comfortable enough to accurately predict, and are consistently correct about what prices horses should honestly be. If that accuracy stands the test of time. On the rare occasions you're way off. THOSE are true under or overlays. The real McCoy not something perceived because one guy phoned it in because he had many others things to do. Or just doesn't know what he's doing.

Don't try it at multiple tracks. Nobody is that smart or tuned in to the degree that's needed.

But if you have one track you are totally in sync with. Put in the work. Make your line and wait. The opportunities will jump off the page.

[toddbowker]

I have served as both a morning line oddsmaker and as a program handicapper. If you're doing it right, it's two different mindsets.

A good oddsmaker will adjust for things like trainers and jockeys who are typically overbet, and in the case of races like the BC Turf, Dubai World Cup etc, where the horses are from makes a difference.

In my case, I was a much better program handicapper than morning line oddsmaker ...

Main reason for the morning line still stands. In most cases, the track doesn't want wild early odds swings, so the morning line will stay up until a certain amount of money hits the win pool. Especially needed at smaller tracks where even $100 bet to win on a horse in the first couple of flashes could move the odds significantly.

The formula for the morning line should be 100+takeout %, and yes, most morning line oddsmakers will compress the highs and lows so as to either more easily make the line balance, or not to embarrass anyone (especially if you are doing it while working in the racing office and hustled that should be 99-1 shot into the race).

I actually kept a chart with 5-6 pre-defined lines that balanced for each number of starters. One of them usually worked, but there were still plenty of races where they had to be tweaked.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

I have served as both a morning line oddsmaker and as a program handicapper. If you're doing it right, it's two different mindsets.

A good oddsmaker will adjust for things like trainers and jockeys who are typically overbet, and in the case of races like the BC Turf, Dubai World Cup etc, where the horses are from makes a difference.

In my case, I was a much better program handicapper than morning line oddsmaker ...

Main reason for the morning line still stands. In most cases, the track doesn't want wild early odds swings, so the morning line will stay up until a certain amount of money hits the win pool. Especially needed at smaller tracks where even $100 bet to win on a horse in the first couple of flashes could move the odds significantly.

The formula for the morning line should be 100+takeout %, and yes, most morning line oddsmakers will compress the highs and lows so as to either more easily make the line balance, or not to embarrass anyone (especially if you are doing it while working in the racing office and hustled that should be 99-1 shot into the race).

I actually kept a chart with 5-6 pre-defined lines that balanced for each number of starters. One of them usually worked, but there were still plenty of races where they had to be tweaked.

Your contributions to this forum are terrific. PA brethren you'd be well advised to take close heed to whatever this man shares.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

IMO the morning line and deviations from it could be the single most important handicapping factor of all. A sure fire way to point to very reliable betting opportunities. An accurate morning line could be the single most powerful road to riches.

However, that line MUST be produced by only one person. YOU.

If you have a circuit you feel comfortable enough to accurately predict, and are consistently correct about what prices horses should honestly be. If that accuracy stands the test of time. On the rare occasions you're way off. THOSE are true under or overlays. The real McCoy not something perceived because one guy phoned it in because he had many others things to do. Or just doesn't know what he's doing.

Don't try it at multiple tracks. Nobody is that smart or tuned in to the degree that's needed.

But if you have one track you are totally in sync with. Put in the work. Make your line and wait. The opportunities will jump off the page.

Vic, I think what you are describing here is a BETTING line, rather than a "morning line". When a handicapper crafts an oddsline to use for the identification of the overlays and the underlays...that's called a "betting line", or a "value line". "The morning line" is some weird concoction whereby the line-maker tries to predict the final betting opinion of the betting public as a whole...and usually does a horrible job of it.

As a serious horseplayer, my main preoccupation is to form my OWN opinion about the horses that I handicap...and then compare my opinion to that of the odds-board. I ask myself: "what should the price of these horses BE?"...and I couldn't care less about what the PUBLIC AT LARGE thinks the price should be. Having said that...I don't want the morning line to be discontinued. If even ONE person out there finds it useful...then, IMO, that's a good enough reason to still keep it around.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

I have served as both a morning line oddsmaker and as a program handicapper. If you're doing it right, it's two different mindsets.

A good oddsmaker will adjust for things like trainers and jockeys who are typically overbet, and in the case of races like the BC Turf, Dubai World Cup etc, where the horses are from makes a difference.

In my case, I was a much better program handicapper than morning line oddsmaker ...

Main reason for the morning line still stands. In most cases, the track doesn't want wild early odds swings, so the morning line will stay up until a certain amount of money hits the win pool. Especially needed at smaller tracks where even $100 bet to win on a horse in the first couple of flashes could move the odds significantly.

The formula for the morning line should be 100+takeout %, and yes, most morning line oddsmakers will compress the highs and lows so as to either more easily make the line balance, or not to embarrass anyone (especially if you are doing it while working in the racing office and hustled that should be 99-1 shot into the race).

I actually kept a chart with 5-6 pre-defined lines that balanced for each number of starters. One of them usually worked, but there were still plenty of races where they had to be tweaked.

Thank you for the input here...great to get info from those who actually do the ML...was wondering if you could expand on the bold portion above...why doesn’t the track want wild early odds swings..?

oh, and yes, i’ve often thought that pre-arranged ML’s based on number of starters are commonly employed by ML makers...I can’t imagine them going through the thinking process of “what the public will wager on” for most of the races...maybe the feature and big events, but for the mundane 6-7 horse fields, how can anyone consistently and reasonably expect to know what the public will do...?

And beside, doesn’t the public employ handicapping for their selections, generally, so that what the public is thinking is generally what most handicappers are thinking anyway, including the ML maker’s own handicapping...they often jive, no..?

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Vic, I think what you are describing here is a BETTING line, rather than a "morning line". When a handicapper crafts an oddsline to use for the identification of the overlays and the underlays...that's called a "betting line", or a "value line". "The morning line" is some weird concoction whereby the line-maker tries to predict the final betting opinion of the betting public as a whole...and usually does a horrible job of it.

As a serious horseplayer, my main preoccupation is to form my OWN opinion about the horses that I handicap...and then compare my opinion to that of the odds-board. I ask myself: "what should the price of these horses BE?"...and I couldn't care less about what the PUBLIC thinks the price should be. Having said that...I don't want the morning line to be discontinued. If even ONE person out there finds it useful...then, IMO, that's a good enough reason to still keep it around.

Sounds good.

[Nitro]

First of all, when talking about the Morning Line you have to consider the level of player that might have an interest in this aspect of the game. Not everyone is sophisticated enough or has the desire to build their own line for any particular type of race. The Morning Line is basically a simple reference tool and as others have already pointed out; only as good as the person who develops it. Things to also consider which affect its accuracy at any given time are scratches and track conditions.

I agree with much of Whosonfirst’s viewpoint mentioned (above) particularly about the variety of timing of bets being made by those on the inside. I personally feel that anyone who has knowledge of a potentially live horse is NOT going to wait until the last minute to bet it. I mean why risk getting shut out?

I would not however jump to any immediate conclusions about entries that have a 20/1 M/L and open up at much lower odds. I’ve found that at the smaller tracks in particular (where the betting pools are much smaller) that very often these are simply decoys to lure unknowing players into thinking that these are “live” entries.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Some people find the morning line a helpful guide as to whether a race is playable. That is why it's still around. That and tradition. If racetracks thought dropping the morning line would raise handle they'd have done so 50 years ago.

However, for all the people saying it's inaccurate and meaningless---if your gambling competition is using something inaccurate and meaningless to influence their wagers, why in the world would you want to get rid of it? I've yet to see a logical counterargument to that, in this thread or anywhere else.

I’m making the opposite argument: The ML is accurate (for contenders, mainly) and meaningful. That is why I don’t want my competitors to have it...KNOWLEDGE IS POWER...let every come to their own conclusions...don’t give them any help...I want more value on my contender, please don’t point out my horse to all the nuckleheads...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

And yet it is true. It is a very potent handicapping factor.

Pushes lots of winners to the top.

I recall Jim Cramer saying to me once that he wished he could find a pedigree factor that would get more winners in the top spot than Morning Line.


Of course, I am not advocating it because it correlates most highly with the tote board. But, guess what? So does BRIS Prime Power, PSR, etc.

IMO, it all depends on the morning-line MAKER. There are some morning lines out there that are BEYOND laughable...and they are obviously doing more harm that any "good" that they are intended for. But, as Castaway01 has so astutely observed, gambling is a competitive matketplace...and, let the bettor beware.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Some people find the morning line a helpful guide as to whether a race is playable. That is why it's still around. That and tradition. If racetracks thought dropping the morning line would raise handle they'd have done so 50 years ago.

However, for all the people saying it's inaccurate and meaningless---if your gambling competition is using something inaccurate and meaningless to influence their wagers, why in the world would you want to get rid of it? I've yet to see a logical counterargument to that, in this thread or anywhere else.

The fish are long gone Casty, and they're not coming back. As for the miniscule $ that are swayed by the M/L in today's game, it makes little to no difference what horses TRULY are in play, via medium to large betting sharp rebate players/bots.....M/L has been long obsolete, to think otherwise is foolishness....But let the archaic traditions continue, if they must.

[ReplayRandall]

Morning line a factor in today's game?....You've got to be joking, pure madness...

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[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

The only time I look at the " old speed ratings/ variant is when they hit 100 and above 100

... so you mean it's just coincidence that you spot them??


(nice try)

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

I actually kept a chart with 5-6 pre-defined lines that balanced for each number of starters. One of them usually worked, but there were still plenty of races where they had to be tweaked.

Can you share these 5-6 stock issue starting lines minus the tweaks?

[Augenj]

Here's what the morning-line odds maker at Arlington Park says about his job.

https://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222