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Originally Posted by MJC922
You can say nevermind fixed odds, that's fine but you still have a boatload of problems on your hands if you want to bring new people in. Not knowing what things will pay is just one of several problems when you're trying to sell this to someone as something worthy of spending hours of their day on. The fact that you got rid of rebates and CAW and made every field 10 horses, you think that'll do it? I haven't heard anything that I think would make it compelling to someone looking in from the outside.
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You left out number one on the list. Fix the pricing and preferably eliminate rebates.To put if very simply, this is 2024. Your successful gambling markets are all in the single digits takeout. Moreover, the caw/rebates issue just means that this game isn't being dealt from a fair deck. Business people love to say that it is common business practice to give volume discounts to good customers. Not analogous here. If you want to buy a million covid masks at 45% off the supplier can do that for you and not affect the pricing on any of his other customers. Not the case in the parimutuel markets. The racing industry is welcome to live in the delusion that they can sustain the market by giving proper pricing to few and gouging the rest of the betting population. But all data and facts indicates that the model has been a complete failure. Common sense indicates that is a model that cannot work. I have preached it for years and years now. People like to gamble. They do not like to be ripped off. People expect to lose and tolerate losing, but they do not want to lose their shoes and shirt.
For the record I have never said to get rid of caw. I have said to get rid of rebates. The last second access to the pools by the caw however is over the top. If they want to pretend to be dealing from a fair deck they need to cut caw access to all pools at 2 minutes (to be honest they should be out of the computer period-they can batch bet all they want but letting them into the computer is begging for them to take advantage) But honestly if they fixed the pricing issue, the market could probably live with the last second access to the pools.
Racing is a form of advantage gambling. It's main appeal is to those who like to use their skill set to make an income in a past time that in my book, is and certainly could be quite enjoyable. These are the people racing needs to attract. There are zillions of them out there, but they either see the takeout and say no thanks or they try it for a while and realize how much tougher it is than their 5 percent takeout games. The rest of the betting public is people out spending a day watching beautiful horses run their hearts out and will gamble just for the sake of gambling. These people are very tolerant of losing but once again 20-35 percent takeout for the typical non rebated bettor is off the charts. Thus these people bet very small and will always bet very small.
If the game would not be compelling if priced properly and dealt from a fair deck, why woud it suddenly be complelling because Fanduel is throwing up +160 fixed odd on a favorite. Nobody starts off loving this game. You go to the races and you get intrigued about the possibility of using your mind to beat the game. The more you learn the game, the more interesting it becomes and the more driven you are to reach the promised land. But in it's current state 1 in 100 or 1 in 200 might be able to approach profitability sans rebate. IMO fixed odds wagering likely will not change these numbers much if at all. Thus investing all their energy into futile activities (like offering fixed odds) without fixing the broken model will lead to more of the same. As I have said before all these new things are gravy. But if you don't fix the broken model, ridiculously high pricing and dealing from a loaded deck, the song remains the same.
Meanwhile it is Tuesday so I have very few betting opportunities today. Let's see. Parx 17% wps, 15% pick 5 and 20 to 25% takeout on every other pool. Will Rogers, 18% wps, 21 to 25% takeout on every other pool. Turf Paradise, 20 to 25.8% takeout on every pool. I may as well just give my money to the homeless guy on the sidewalk. To their credit these three tracks are offering fairly full fields today. But these takeouts are beyond ridiculous and moreove the higher the takeout the higher the rebates for the caw putting me at an even bigger disadvantage. Sounds like a winning model to me.
