Picking the right closers key to hitting the Superfecta

[PowerUpPaynter]

In the past 10 years Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, closers/deep closers accounted for 25 of the slots, or 60%.

At least two closer/deep closers hit the superfecta in nine of the past 10 editions (90%) of the Kentucky Derby. Four of 10 races (40%) featured three or more closer types hitting the top four positions.

Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 70% of the 20 available slots taken up by them.

75% of the 20-1+ board hitters were closers/deep closers.



So who are your top closers?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

So who are your top closers?

There are very few true Brisnet S types in this renwal. Haikal, WWW, and Country House fit the bill. Wouldn't be shocked to see any of them hit the super nor would I be surprised if its a merry go round given much of the field has shown decent LP figures.

[Curln22]

Me thinks you will see WWW closer to the pace with the Jock change.
I’m saying he is at the back of the first pack
GL

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Me thinks you will see WWW closer to the pace with the Jock change.
I’m saying he is at the back of the first pack
GL

if he can break like a normal damn horse... he breaks like a real jerk off... just saying

[Robert Fischer]

If the price is big enough, and Shug/JohnnyV patiently stay the course, then you have a decent value long shot gamble.

But the pressure is going to be there, to 'adjust' and be closer to the pace. He had that dream-trip in the FOY where he was sitting fairly close. Then that 'helpless' pace-dependent feeling in the Florida Derby.

There's a real danger that he will adjust tactics, and mess up the angle.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If the price is big enough, and Shug/JohnnyV patiently stay the course, then you have a decent value long shot gamble.

But the pressure is going to be there, to 'adjust' and be closer to the pace. He had that dream-trip in the FOY where he was sitting fairly close. Then that 'helpless' pace-dependent feeling in the Florida Derby.

There's a real danger that he will adjust tactics, and mess up the angle.

My key in all the plays Robert!!!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jocko699

My key in all the plays Robert!!!

Good luck.

He's a tough read. Seems like a solid horse.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Good luck.

He's a tough read. Seems like a solid horse.

Agree, thought the FD was better than it looked for him. We will see!!!!

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 70% of the 20 available slots taken up by them.

Except for Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos, and Fu Peg.


....and late types like Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Super Saver.

I certainly find it "interesting" that closers and deep closers are always relegated to bottom of superfecta, while so many cappers are picking horses like Goldencents instead and keep saying how late runnners don't ever win .

Seems like being stuck in a hangover from the "steroid age" where horses ran huge figs and that was all that mattered. Either that, or they just like chalk. Sure, you could have put anybody aboard justify or american pharoah, probably even somebody from the crowd, and they would have won. But the E7 meme is getting too much play IMHO.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I certainly find it "interesting" that closers and deep closers are always relegated to bottom of superfecta, while so many cappers are picking horses like Goldencents instead and keep saying how late runnners don't ever win.

Depends on the horses. I hated Goldencents. I played Exaggerator and Orb. I used others like Audible underneath that hit the money. Tacitus is a decent horse if you want to define him as a closer otherwise I don't see much in this renewal resembling the quality of the three I mentioned.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If the price is big enough, and Shug/JohnnyV patiently stay the course, then you have a decent value long shot gamble.

I am surprised CoH is considered a long shot here.

In the Top 10 Derby Contenders topic, I was only member on Page 1 to list him in my top 10......then one person on page 2 liked him. 3 pages of posts and he was mentioned by exactly 2 people here in their top 10 and one being me.

Maybe somebody can explain the why of this.

Cuz, honestly, I haven't seen the lack of love for him elsewhere.

So hit me with your "why he isn't on anybody's top 10" yet.

I fully realize that once the talking heads get going, all sorts of previously unmentioned horses will get named, but I like you guys who participate in the early topics, before all that happens, cuz I respect those having an opinion that doesn't involve buying it or getting it from someone else, if you know what I mean.

(honestly, once all that garbage comes out, I pretty much ignore all the horse names 2-3 days out....)

[PowerUpPaynter]

COH might be a 1 turn type... A horse like Country House might be a better gamble at even higher odds and you dont have to worry about the distance... (obviously talking about underneath) just gotta worry about if he is fast enough.... there's always a caveat

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

In the past 10 years Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, closers/deep closers accounted for 25 of the slots, or 60%.

At least two closer/deep closers hit the superfecta in nine of the past 10 editions (90%) of the Kentucky Derby. Four of 10 races (40%) featured three or more closer types hitting the top four positions.

Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 70% of the 20 available slots taken up by them.

75% of the 20-1+ board hitters were closers/deep closers.



So who are your top closers?

How do you define deep closers? 10+ lengths back at the 1/2th? Quirin?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

COH might be a 1 turn type.

Really? With a sire who has Danehill as BMS? Danehill, who sired Dylan Thomas? I think he can get 11F++.

The fact that he was able to win at Gulfstream (and his m/l was 20-1) despite not being one of the high speed horses is just a testimony to how good he is. Mucho macho stakes was a blessing for the odds......a mile was much too short a distance for him and he also got bumped all over the place, like in the champagne, where he also stumbled. 1 mile is a joke for him......Gulfstream aint his track. I'm thinking you would not have liked Carry Back.
CoH just drips class to me...beautiful classy Farish homebred.

I want to see him do well, we need to get some o' that Sadler's Wells and Danehill blood over here more with American breeders. They will do just fine on dirt despite those knees that go back a bit. that can all be bred out (but we missed the boat on this I think).

[clicknow]

However, I'm with ya on country house but he is more of a belmont horse. They both may be.
gotta see how track comes up. Not feeling either of them on mud.