May as well use this thread to discuss issues we have dealt with on this board in the past.
There was a thread some time ago that discussed what really is the best scenario for a late running sprinter. Traditional thinking is the hotter up front, the better for the late runners as the heat up front will send the early runners wilting to the finish line and allow the late runners to sweep on by. Another viewpoint was a more moderate pace, allowing the late runners to stay closer to the early pace and ultimately grind down the front runners in the stretch.
I like the latter scenario better whenever possible as I feel it's always dangerous, regardless of the intensity of the pace, for a runner to get too far back early. I prefer, even for my late runners, to face a more moderate pace, allowing them to stay closer to the leaders and outrun them to the finish in the stretch.
We have a race at Del Mar today, Thursday Dec. 1, 2016, that will test the moderate pace, late runner scenario as if a script were written to discuss this issue.
5th @ Del Mar
May get the lead by default. With no committed engine, yet plenty of forward runners, Pedroza should hit the gas from the rail with this one. However, she's never proven she has the speed to put pressure on a field, and therefore should have company throughout. Turning for home, she's never proven that "pop" that is so important when attempting to wire a field, yet she does run on to the finish.
--SCRATCH--. She wasn't particularly important to this exercise as she was going to be one of the 2nd flight, or late runners, and she has shown she would prefer a mid race meltdown to allow her to gain position before the top of the stretch. She would have had to fight her way into position in this field, and I believe she would have come up wanting in the far turn.
Off 8 months, and she was being groomed earlier in her career to run 2 turns on the turf. However, her maiden win did come off a 6 month layoff going 6 1/2f. A race in which she was left alone after a half mile in a very moderate, if not slow, early pace. That won't be the scenario here. The pace will be moderate, but fairer than she won at. The pace will also be attended, if not crowded, which by the way, is the one of the two aspects of this race that really makes it favorable to the late runners in here.
Another that was able to gain a very favorable position in a moderately run early pace, and was allowed to slip away. The absolute last thing a late runner wants to see in a race like this, a moderately run pace that is well attended, is one of those early runners allowed to slip away. Neither this one, or any of the others in this race, have proven they can run and hide at the 3/16 pole from an attended pace. Just about every runner in this race broke maiden from a lightly attended pace run in a moderate, if not slow, manner. This race is not going to be run in 46.2 with only 2 runners in front at the 1/4 pole. The 1/4 pole should be very crowded, which is favorable for a late runner that wants to sweep by the field. That's much easier than picking off one runner at a time, trying to reel them all in before hitting the wire.
1Oct16-3SA 46 for the half, 58.3 for 5f, and this one builds a 3 1/2 length lead and runs away. Not happening here. This race could very well be run with those splits, and if so, will be pretty crowded at the 1/8th pole. This one's last race looks sneaky good at this very level, but the only horse that ran in that race that would even be competitive in this field was the very impressive winner. That field was awful for a StAl-N2L and this filly was able to take advantage of that and get a nice placing to a very nice looking winner. TRAP.
The lethal Puype/Elliott team has a filly you want here. She fires in the lane everytime she's not running against Songbird types, and she will be comfortable running right behind the crowded, moderate, pace. None of them in front of her is quick enough turning for home to shake her, and I look for her to shake free at the 1/16th, and win this by open lengths to a crowded finish line for the minor prizes.
She's been involved in both the fast-early, fall apart-late, and the moderate paced, grind them down late, and as a late runner, she was able to break maiden in the more traditional first scenario. She hasn't proven she has a sweep by them kind of move, and it looks to me like she'll be one of the crowd late at the line for the minor placings. She definitely could be on a winning exacta ticket, but so could about 4 others in here.
Here is a grinder that I think the connections should start considering more ground for, and she is in the longest race of her life today. Good move. She has some early speed, and has shown a sneaky ability to fire. She may be the biggest danger to the pick, and definitely should show up on the board somewhere. She could be the one that puts the dagger in the heart of the early runners that don't assert themselves at the top of the stretch.
is the bet.
After this race, I'll address another issue we've discussed on this board many times over the years, the issue of win vs. win/place.
Belle Sierra
