numbers

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How can a variant be credited with doing a "decent job"...when it doesn't differentiate between the speeds of surfaces and fields?

Why would it need to? The speed in a race is either faster than, slower than, or equal to, the norm, whether it be due to surface speed, or overall speed of the field. I just want to know that the race was run faster or slower than the norm. I'll take it from there.

I use the variant as a further adjustment to the raw fractional and final times, in order to calculate the fractional and total velocities. However, I don't use the variant as it is published. A simple speed figure + variant calculation isn't sufficient, IMO. If it was that simple, I'd be using something else, because everyone would be doing that already and there would be no value in using the variant at all.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cj

You could say the same thing about throwing darts at a program while blindfolded.

CJ, most people don't have access to what you do, therefore, they have to use what they have to use.

Super accurate/differentiated variants, regarding surface speed and speed/class of the field, are not necessarily needed to achieve one's personal goals.

I certainly would never try to use any variant as you do, because I use them in a different context than you do. There is little doubt that your method of determining the daily variant is one of the best, but we all can't use yours so we find other ways to accomplish what we do.

[cj]

Originally Posted by raybo

CJ, most people don't have access to what you do, therefore, they have to use what they have to use.

Super accurate/differentiated variants, regarding surface speed and speed/class of the field, are not necessarily needed to achieve one's personal goals.

I certainly would never try to use any variant as you do, because I use them in a different context than you do. There is little doubt that your method of determining the daily variant is one of the best, but we all can't use yours so we find other ways to accomplish what we do.

I never said, or meant to imply, they were needed to achieve whatever goals somebody may have. I don't think I did imply that. What I was saying is that finding a few longshots that "nobody else has" will happen regardless of what method you use.

I also never said anyone has to do variants the way I do. As far as I know, everybody has access to the BRIS figures or the Beyer figure if they want them, and they are head and shoulders above DRF+TV. The fact DRF+TV lands on winners that others don't is more by pure chance than anything else. That was my point. As a very generic, was the track fast, slow, or average, it probably does ok at that.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

You could say the same thing about throwing darts at a program while blindfolded.

It has happen enough that I have taken notice. DRF might be outdated, but it is based on a reasonable premise. Therefore, it does get more than throwing darts.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It has happen enough that I have taken notice. DRF might be outdated, but it is based on a reasonable premise. Therefore, it does get more than throwing darts.

The argument wasn't whether it gets more than throwing darts. My argument was regardless of premise, ANY system will get a few others miss. I guess I'm more picky, but in a game with a rake of 20%, I have a hard time accepting that an inferior method is good enough.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

The argument wasn't whether it gets more than throwing darts. My argument was regardless of premise, ANY system will get a few others miss. I guess I'm more picky, but in a game with a rake of 20%, I have a hard time accepting that an inferior method is good enough.

How do we know that DRF speed ratings are inferior? Is it because the promoters of Beyer numbers tells us so? And DRF figs may have a hit ratio a few percentages less than Beyers or other more modern speed figs, but since the vast majority of players are using the modern figs will the modern figs be bet down? Could DRF hit less and return a greater ROI nowadays? The premise of DRF figs is valid. And both the modern figs and the old DRF guess when establishing a race variant. The modern speed figs also guess at track and race class variants while the DRF has theirs built into their premise. I wouldn't recite the gospel of speed figures according to Beyer. The question is do you know from research which has the best ROI?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

How do we know that DRF speed ratings are inferior? Is it because the promoters of Beyer numbers tells us so? And DRF figs may have a hit ratio a few percentages less than Beyers or other more modern speed figs, but since the vast majority of players are using the modern figs will the modern figs be bet down? Could DRF hit less and return a greater ROI nowadays? The premise of DRF figs is valid. And both the modern figs and the old DRF guess when establishing a race variant. The modern speed figs also guess at track and race class variants while the DRF has theirs built into their premise. I wouldn't recite the gospel of speed figures according to Beyer. The question is do you know from research which has the best ROI?

It is easily checked in a database, both ROI and Win% wise. I wouldn't post something was inferior if I didn't have the data to back it up.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cj

I never said, or meant to imply, they were needed to achieve whatever goals somebody may have. I don't think I did imply that. What I was saying is that finding a few longshots that "nobody else has" will happen regardless of what method you use.

I also never said anyone has to do variants the way I do. As far as I know, everybody has access to the BRIS figures or the Beyer figure if they want them, and they are head and shoulders above DRF+TV. The fact DRF+TV lands on winners that others don't is more by pure chance than anything else. That was my point. As a very generic, was the track fast, slow, or average, it probably does ok at that.

I wasn't alluding to that, at all, I simply meant that, because you limit your membership, most players cannot gain access to your figures, therefore, they must use other means of accomplishing whatever it is they accomplish, whether profitable or not.

I agree that DRF SR + DRF variant is an extremely weak approach, however, the DRF variant can be used, alone, pretty well, depending on how individual users apply it to their method.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by gm10

That's what I meant but you say it much better than I could!

Thanks, but it's a brain twisting topic for me.

1. The numbers can give you one view of reality.

2. Comparing the horses performances, trips, etc... on a visual and qualitative basis can give you another view.

When they are equal or very similar, it's smooth sailing. When they disagree you have a problem because it's sometimes hard to know which view is correct until after the fact. Further complicating the matter is that the two views are actually a function of each other. The numbers earned at one level are often not representative of what the horse can earn at another level or with a different trip.

So you have to wrap your brain around the possibility that your number could be wrong, your subjective analysis could be wrong, but that even if you are correct on both, a shift in class could mean an entirely different number.

Throw in less that clear biases and trips and you wind up in paralysis.

When you are at that stage, whether the horse earned a 100 or 97 Beyer feels meaningless. That's my world.

[lamboguy]

in today's 8th race at Ruidoso, the adw that i use did give the race a title. it was listed as a 2 other than. i called the track and it was a New Mexico Bred 2 other than race. the horse i liked was dropping from a $12,500 New Mexico non-conditioned claiming race into the 2x. the horse wound up paying $6.40 for the win, where i thought the horse was 2/5. the pools there can't handle big money, but i bet $150 win early and the horse win.

if you have a good eye and a lot of patience you can find opportunity's like this 4 or 5 times a week. i find them all the time in ASD, Northlands, and Hastings.

i don't think that anyone makes good numbers for all those places.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

It is easily checked in a database, both ROI and Win% wise. I wouldn't post something was inferior if I didn't have the data to back it up.

I don't have the database. What numbers do you get?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

in today's 8th race at Ruidoso, the adw that i use did give the race a title. it was listed as a 2 other than. i called the track and it was a New Mexico Bred 2 other than race. the horse i liked was dropping from a $12,500 New Mexico non-conditioned claiming race into the 2x. the horse wound up paying $6.40 for the win, where i thought the horse was 2/5. the pools there can't handle big money, but i bet $150 win early and the horse win.

if you have a good eye and a lot of patience you can find opportunity's like this 4 or 5 times a week. i find them all the time in ASD, Northlands, and Hastings.

i don't think that anyone makes good numbers for all those places.

On a scale of 1 to 10 for redboard inventiveness, this one gets a measly 3.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

On a scale of 1 to 10 for redboard inventiveness, this one gets a measly 3.

the more i think about it, i find it pretty funny that you chose to post about a redboard rating that i have posted and never say anything about the occasional winners that i have posted in the past. maybe i have never posted a winner here. or maybe i forgot to congratulate you on your big winner on turf last last year because you picked up on the observation of a turf foot right on television. congratulations on that great pick.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the more i think about it, i find it pretty funny that you chose to post about a redboard rating that i have posted and never say anything about the occasional winners that i have posted in the past. maybe i have never posted a winner here. or maybe i forgot to congratulate you on your big winner on turf last last year because you picked up on the observation of a turf foot right on television. congratulations on that great pick.

Awww man, I thought you had a better sense of humor than that...

And I don't recall the incident of the turf foot on television, but I'll take the credit nonetheless...

[cj]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i don't think that anyone makes good numbers for all those places.

I would disagree.