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03-14-2012, 02:43 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Ness/Midwest claimer sets track record at TAM today
Might have made my last bet on a race Jamie Ness is involved in. I'm from MN and have followed this guy since 2005 (after he left the information booth at CBY to become a trainer). He is doing things that defy all logical statistics.
Today, Lady of Greatness (a mare he claimed for 14k in October) won a 20k claiming race by 11 lengths in sub 1:03 for 5 1/2 and set the track record.
The guy is hovering around 50% win percentage with 125 starters are TAM.
A few honest questions:
1. Is there a sole alive that believes he is winning legitimately?
2. If the answer is NO, why is he allowed to train?
3. I know the tracks have a built in incentive to let guys like Ness on the grounds (adds more horses to races) but c'mon, you can't seriously believe his runners make their product better or more bettable.
4. Will there EVER be a serious charge brought against Ness (or guys like him)? If he is using PED's, he is committing a felony (tampering with a parimutuel event) and would do prison time if the Fed's took aim.
Overall---it's just disgusting to me and makes the game tough to get excited about.
Last edited by Valento; 03-14-2012 at 02:44 PM.
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03-14-2012, 04:19 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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Beat the track record by 4 lengths not just a whisker although in the 16k nw3L they just missed the track record at 6.5f by a length. You don't see horses win by 11 in a 5.5f race everyday also. The beat goes on at Tampa.
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03-14-2012, 04:30 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 770
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I am wondering if he was doing something so obviously wrong wouldnt or shouldnt the other trainers-owners complain to the point it would be stopped because after all he would be taking food off their table if it were true?
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03-14-2012, 04:46 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,764
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PETER BERUBE must be very proud of a $16,000 claimer breaking his track record for 5 1/2 furlongs. he also has to love the MIDWEST THOROUGHBRED CORPORATION scaring trainers away from that place and the handle dropping like a rock this year.
he has his wish
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03-14-2012, 05:31 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
PETER BERUBE must be very proud of a $16,000 claimer breaking his track record for 5 1/2 furlongs. he also has to love the MIDWEST THOROUGHBRED CORPORATION scaring trainers away from that place and the handle dropping like a rock this year.
he has his wish
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It's beyond ridiculous
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03-14-2012, 05:41 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valento
It's beyond ridiculous
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the MIDWEST THOROUGHBRED CORPORATION is winning at a 49% win rate at TAMPA. that means that 51% of the time that they have horses in the race other owners don't win races. there are lots of things that happen to horses during races, bad draw's, jockey falloffs, pinned on rails, wind blowing wrong direction. they still overcome the randomness that makes racing great.
these are not the only guys that win at crazy numbers all over our continent these days. the only thing that remains constant here is that racing handles have taken steep drops, while the rest of the world has big increases.
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03-14-2012, 05:47 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the MIDWEST THOROUGHBRED CORPORATION is winning at a 49% win rate at TAMPA. that means that 51% of the time that they have horses in the race other owners don't win races. ...
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Hmmm... not to nitpick, but after a little math Goooogling, I've come to the conclusion that if they are winning 49% of the time then that means that 49% of the time that they have horses in the race other owners don't win races.
__________________
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-Robert James Smith, 1989
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03-14-2012, 10:40 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valento
1. Is there a sole alive that believes he is winning legitimately?
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red cloak from the pen racing illuminati is the only one.
story used to be that jamie personally took copious notes on all the horses every morning. now that he's at multiple tracks, midwest is just playing the tax game better than other stables. who knows what it will be next.
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03-14-2012, 10:54 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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The ability to take great notes interesting? If the guy never had a violation then people at least would have less questions arise when his horses would perform like this, I remember when he shipped 2 horses in for the claiming crown in 2010 at canterbury and both tested positive for some illegal substance and they both placed in their races. Didn't he also send and race the wrong horse one time and he blamed it on one of his staff?
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03-15-2012, 01:06 AM
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#10
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Mamma Kimbo
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 435
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When
Andy Beyer writes in his Drf article about this fall at Tampa Bay and Ness's win % it tells you all you need to know. That track is hurting ...damn shame.
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03-15-2012, 07:23 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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ITTP..google it
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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03-15-2012, 08:39 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the MIDWEST THOROUGHBRED CORPORATION is winning at a 49% win rate at TAMPA. that means that 51% of the time that they have horses in the race other owners don't win races. .
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multinomial logit??
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03-15-2012, 08:55 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 630
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He is the TBred version of Lou Pena. Its a joke and is killing handle, plus makes a lot of races unbettable period.
But I have to admit to betting Lady of Greatness yesterday. Using DRF Formulater, I found that he was 50% + with the combo of factors that LoG had. Turf to dirt, sprinting, 2nd off layoff etc.
But I was on the other end too, had the 9-1 and 8-1 winners of the 7th and 8th singled to First off the Claim #3 for Ness in the finale only to have the horse miss the board. I was already counting my money.
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03-15-2012, 09:04 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 9
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Crazy game we love, isn't it?
New York gets sick of the Dutrow shenanigans, and look how many races he's winning waiting for his "ban" to kick in.
Sometimes I think (more like hope) that somebody who knows whats going on will blow one of these 40% + guys in. But then I think about Jose Canseco, and all the accusations he made when his book came out several years ago. He was vilified to no end because he ruined the image of the game to all the baseball purists. Of course, everything he said has proven to have been true; but I guess being the one who "rats" can put you in a lonely place.
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03-15-2012, 11:14 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shankapotamus
Crazy game we love, isn't it?
New York gets sick of the Dutrow shenanigans, and look how many races he's winning waiting for his "ban" to kick in.
Sometimes I think (more like hope) that somebody who knows whats going on will blow one of these 40% + guys in. But then I think about Jose Canseco, and all the accusations he made when his book came out several years ago. He was vilified to no end because he ruined the image of the game to all the baseball purists. Of course, everything he said has proven to have been true; but I guess being the one who "rats" can put you in a lonely place.
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Agreed with everything you said. It would really be awesome if they caight one of these guys and made a serious example of him.
On a side note, I always had a suspicion that Larry Jones retired because he felt the gov't was getting involved in the cleaning up of the sport (back around the 8 Belle's time period). Funny he's returned right after the gov't lost interest in doing anything. I'm sure I'm wrong on that hunch but unfortunately, everything I see and hear regarding racing has my skeptical.
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