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Old 10-30-2020, 11:50 AM   #1
classhandicapper
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BC Juvenile Fillies

This may be one of the most interesting races of the 2020 BC.

Princess Noor has been extremely dominant and impressive winning with plenty of energy in reserve in her 3 starts, but the races have been slow and her competitors were not particularly distinguished going into those races and haven't been particularly impressive coming out of them.

Baffert is on record recently addressing the times of her races and what he thinks of her. He still thinks she's a very special filly.

I don't doubt she's got a lot more in the tank and is capable of running faster (especially because she's working great and it looks like he has her cranked now), but there are some other very promising fillies in the race that have already run a lot faster she's going have to beat.

It makes for an interesting handicapping puzzle and betting situation.
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Old 10-30-2020, 01:46 PM   #2
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This may be one of the most interesting races of the 2020 BC.

Princess Noor has been extremely dominant and impressive winning with plenty of energy in reserve in her 3 starts, but the races have been slow and her competitors were not particularly distinguished going into those races and haven't been particularly impressive coming out of them.

Baffert is on record recently addressing the times of her races and what he thinks of her. He still thinks she's a very special filly.

I don't doubt she's got a lot more in the tank and is capable of running faster (especially because she's working great and it looks like he has her cranked now), but there are some other very promising fillies in the race that have already run a lot faster she's going have to beat.

It makes for an interesting handicapping puzzle and betting situation.
#1 bet against

#2 will be gamine

be bad day for baffert, wont be able to cheat either.
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Old 10-30-2020, 03:36 PM   #3
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#1 bet against

#2 will be gamine

be bad day for baffert, wont be able to cheat either.
Has Baffert stopped cheating? Or for those defending him against outright cheating, has he ever stopped skirting the limits with overages? IMO the answer is no to both and I see no difference this time. Baffert has an air of invincibility to him it seems.
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Old 10-30-2020, 05:30 PM   #4
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All I can say about Baffert coming into the BC is that several of his horses are working better now than they have all year. He may or may not win any races, but he's turning the screws on a few of them.
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Old 10-30-2020, 08:15 PM   #5
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Princess Noor is going to blow the doors off of that DayOuttaTheOffice horse imo. Not a Baffert fan but those figs on PNís races can be tossed in the trash. She passes the eye test for me.
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Old 10-31-2020, 12:43 PM   #6
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Princess Noor is going to blow the doors off of that DayOuttaTheOffice horse imo. Not a Baffert fan but those figs on PNís races can be tossed in the trash. She passes the eye test for me.
As of today, I cautiously agree.

I think it's an interesting handicapping puzzle.

Horse passes the eye test, and even if these figs had been earned in MSW and allowance, rather than wherever she's actually happened to race (msw, weak stakes? i haven't followed?), she'd be one I'd like to take the arrogate price on to step up in class and speed. She does pass the eye test for me as well.

However, I have yet to really study her. Her last race or two, I briefly saw her as a strong likely winner, and passed the race w/out capping her, or watching her race or replay. I have some quick looks at her in memory, and a strong recent 5f work vs. a sparring-partner.

Worth a look, if the speed figs are lower. Interesting discussion.
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Old 10-31-2020, 03:50 PM   #7
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To me these are the "enigma" horses.

Most horses that win big and get eased through the stretch are cheaper horses that just happened to run into a soft field, get an easy trip, a favorable track bias etc... It's the soft trip that allowed them to win so easily. When they move up in class or face a much tougher trip next out they run slower.

However, there's a subgroup of horse like this that are actually very good horses with substantial reserves of stamina. If pushed harder earlier to a faster pace they will carry that speed and stamina to an even faster final time (until they reach their own breaking point).

The things is, it's sometimes hard to know what you are dealing with when it comes to very lightly horses that haven't been tested or exposed yet. It's even tough when they've strung a lot of wins.

My guess is that people that are taking Princess Noor's figures at face value are almost certainly underestimating her. This was a 1.35 million dollar purchase, pounded in the betting first out, from a sire that is doing quite well, and for an all time great trainer that works his horses in company and is saying she's special. It's very likely there's more in the tank we haven't see yet.

The thing is, in Beyer terms she's a 78/79, but there are horses in race that have already gotten into the 90s or a hair below it. So this isn't the typical debate where there's a few points difference and you can say "she's got more in the tank and deserves favoritism even though she's a hair slower so far". She'll have to have a LOT more in the tank. That's what makes it so interesting.
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Old 10-31-2020, 04:16 PM   #8
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To me these are the "enigma" horses.
Betting against is the long term answer. Everyone remembers the ones that win, but if you go against the ones that get bet heavily you'll come out way ahead over time.
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Old 10-31-2020, 05:49 PM   #9
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Betting against is the long term answer. Everyone remembers the ones that win, but if you go against the ones that get bet heavily you'll come out way ahead over time.
I'm sure you are correct that if you bet them "all" they aren't profitable.

On the flip side a lot of people are so literal about speed figures they sometimes make bad plays against some of these horses.

There have been a LOT of instances where all the wise guys hated a horse I thought was better than the figures indicated. I sat on the sidelines because I thought the race was bet correctly. The wise guys ripped up their tickets when the favorite beat them and ran a new top that was very predictable.

I may make a play in that race, but I'm not salivating to key against Princess Noor. The gap is just so huge I can take a stab.
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Old 10-31-2020, 08:04 PM   #10
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Since Songbird won in 2015, the BC Juvenile Fillies has been a terrible barometer of the 2yo filly crop. I think there's been a couple of Grade 3 wins between the last 4 winners.

In addition, since Songbird won, 3 other CA fillies (Moonshine Memories, Bellafina, Bast) have won both the DM Debutante and Oak Leaf and all failed miserably in the BC. Two were favored. Bast went off as an overlay, ran the best of the 3 and actually won a couple more races before retiring with injury. The other 2 were major disappointments, Bellafina mercifully retiring a couple of days ago.

On the plus side, I believe there was somewhat similar chatter about Songbird's figures being too low for the BC (definitely was the case for the male counterpart Nyquist).

That said, its hard to apply strict form using well beaten also-rans but NY and CA exchanged horses for their most recent 2yo filly events with Make Mischief (a distant 2nd to Thoughtfully in the Adirondack) getting buried in the Chandelier and Get On The Bus (no factor in the DM Debutante) left waiting for the bus in the Frizette.

Probably more significant is Thoughtfully switching from NY to KY and finding no extra on the stretch out in the Alcibiades.

So I look to Kentucky. At this early stage looks like Girl Daddy over Simply Ravishing. If Thoughtfully is simply held off the pace instead of the curious grand tour trip her jock gave her in the Alcibiades she can rally late and tag Dayoutoftheoffice for 3rd.
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Old 11-01-2020, 09:35 AM   #11
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My experience is that more than a fair share of these BC Juvenile races have some combination of a lot of speed, a big field, and horses either not suited to or not ready to run a route of ground yet. So the races sometimes collapse and earn a slow speed figure. You even see it sometimes when the early 5.5F and 6F winners try 7F for the first time. The stretch outs set a fast pace and the last furlong is a stagger fest.
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Old 11-01-2020, 10:36 AM   #12
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for this specific race - have a different fade - actually slightly against ? Dayoutoftheoffice.
I think she's a nice filly, but I don't like her to win here, and I don't love her to complete an exacta or tri (if she happens to take significant enough money in win/exa/etc.., to make this a significant opinion).

Have the Bris figs in front of me. I prefer the Beyers, but can see that the Frizette may have been one of the races with higher Beyers than the G2 Chandelier S. ??(Princess Noor), and just as important; I handicapped and watched the Frizette and have the opinion that while Dayoutoftheoffice is a nice big filly with some baseline talent and very good fundamentals, that she hasn't shown me any brilliance. I'd have to think Dayoutoftheoffice would need a good trip, and for others to fail to get this distance (possible, but not at a short price).
Haven't seen the morning lines or the sportsbook or pre-odds yet, so maybe this isn't a top-3 public choice.

Generally, yea, the lower speed figs is who you want to try to beat.
Princess Noor has a couple of tradeoffs. She's trained by a top trainer, who has shown the ability to skip class levels, as well as train up to races. Also she has taken a ton of money from her first start.
The models are in a 'tradeoff' of opposing directions(-lowFigs vs. +trainer +$), and I hate tradeoffs.

Boils down to whether you want to take the low-figs at face value, or whether you also have an additional negative opinion/model to tip the scales, or whether her short price is enough to warrant a small gamble against, in hopes of a big return.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:05 AM   #13
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I have found over the years that the figures do not lie. Slow horses do not beat faster horses without extenuating circumstances (easy leads, pace collapses. conditioning issues).

That being said with two year olds you can have massive improvements in figures that may make it seem like the figures lie. Its a fine line on judging two year olds.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:03 PM   #14
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I handicapped and watched the Frizette and have the opinion that while Dayoutoftheoffice is a nice big filly with some baseline talent and very good fundamentals, that she hasn't shown me any brilliance. I'd have to think Dayoutoftheoffice would need a good trip, and for others to fail to get this distance (possible, but not at a short price).
I would say Dayoutoftheoffice is plenty brilliant. As you said, for a young filly she has very good fundamentals, breaking sharply and settling fairly well just off the frontrunners. She took command in her last 2 with the push of a button, switch leads on cue, and cleared the field in a matter of strides. Vequist is a filly of some quality and she may have made Dayoutoftheoffice work a little late in the Frizette but it was probably a dozen lengths back to the 3rd place finisher. She comes from a strong female family of stakes horses most of whom were limited to no more than 8.5f (Here Comes Ben, Racethewildwind, Albertus Maximus, Daredevil) and the Into Mischief brigade is pretty much in the same boat. I think the slight added distance and unfamiliarity with a 2-turn configuration will be her undoing in the BC...this time.

Meanwhile, Princess Noor is a complete x-factor. She has basically won 3 straight maiden special weights.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:56 PM   #15
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Vequist is a filly of some quality and she may have made Dayoutoftheoffice work a little late in the Frizette but it was probably a dozen lengths back to the 3rd place finisher.
At this stage I'm mildly interested in Vequest, but I need to look at some others better. Vequest was ahead of Dayoutoftheoffice early, then dropped back inside and allowed the latter to get position ahead of her. She was waiting in the pocket near the inside when Dayoutoftheoffice made her move and got the jump. It was a day there wasn't a lot of movement in the flow of most races and when some riders seemed to be avoiding the inside (though I called the day as most likely honest).

I've been wondering if she can turn the tables????

If you trust the figures for that race, they would both seem to at least be logical contenders.

I'm also not a giant fan of Simply Ravishing given last out one of the other speeds didn't break and another wasn't used. As impressive as she was, she wound up getting loose and going slow early by default.

If you are willing to take a stab against Princess Noor, Dayoutofthoffice, and Simply Ravishing you'll probably have a good first day if you are right, but it may be a lot to ask to beat all three unless you think someone is very likely to jump up.
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