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Old 11-21-2020, 03:23 PM   #91
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Princess Noor was hardly in a moderate field. She was in one of the stronger runnings of the BC Juvenile Fillies in years. She went into the race as the sixth fastest of seven and came out that way. I don't know of anyone I respect that considered her even a player. Most considered her as bad a favorite as you will see in a race.

As for Arrogate, the Travers field was deep, and there were plenty of accomplished horses in it, but none were even remotely fast at that point in their careers. Arrogate had around a 103 Beyer ( albeit in a three horse field ) at Del Mar, which pretty much qualified him as being as fast as anyone, if not faster. I didn't like him, and you could hardly predict he would explode the way he did, but he was far more competitive on paper than the laughably over her head Princess Noor. That filly of Mandella's that won last weekend at Del Mar will swat her away like a gnat if and when they meet.
Even with Arrogate's generous mutuals, the pre-race opinion that Princess Noor was a badly mispriced favorite, was a better, more valuable opinion, than knowing to include Arrogate in a 'spread' Travers.

In general, I had both horses valued as 'mid-range odds' type of contenders.
Both horses, mispriced by the Public...

Thanks for exposing the flaws in a perfectly good example.
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Old 11-21-2020, 04:14 PM   #92
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In general, I had both horses valued as 'mid-range odds' type of contenders. Both horses, mispriced by the Public...

Yes.

The idea is that a lightly raced Baffert horse (or any Cox horse these days for that matter - lol) is way more likely to jump up (possibly sharply) than for the average trainer. So part of your thinking should be based on what the horse has shown to date relative to the competition and part has to be based on the probability and extent of a possible forward move.

What I've been adding is that Baffert has a history of being correct when he raves about a horse and this one was obviously winning with something in reserve. So imo the probability for a big jump up was higher than usual even for him.

The value decision was different.

In this case she needed a big jump up just to contend. So as the favorite, you could play against her. However, imo she wasn't as easy a total toss as the figures suggested. imo she is also still a threat to develop and move forward towards the top of the class.

Look what he's done with a horse like Improbable over time.

Some people were tossing Authentic in the Ky Derby after the SA Derby loss and the rest tossed him after the Haskell as never getting 10F (I was in the latter group lol). One mediocre race is not a career. This is a very smart guy and great trainer.

I'm not even sure why my view seems controversial.
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Old 11-21-2020, 05:43 PM   #93
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No one thinks they are controversial. It’s amusing watching you cover every single base you can to come back to this thread and say “see I told you so” regardless of how she runs.

Just like you did after the Breeders Cup. No one could possibly read the post you made and think you scored out. But sure enough, the race wasn’t even official and you quoted yourself (leaving out the part that showed you covering all the bases) to say you crushed it.

It’s just funny.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:37 AM   #94
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Princess Noor had her first work back from the BC yesterday at Santa Anita. Worked by herself and got a 1/2 mile in :48 4/5 (XBTV posted :49 4/5), good for 15th of 38 working the distance. This was her slowest 1/2 mile ever on raw time and 2nd worst ranking amongst other workers.

Baffert also took the blinkers off. Horse worked through the stretch with her head cocked to the right while drifting in slightly.

Not sure if all the change ups were status quo for the first work back, experimentation, or utter desperation.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:58 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Princess Noor had her first work back from the BC yesterday at Santa Anita. Worked by herself and got a 1/2 mile in :48 4/5 (XBTV posted :49 4/5), good for 15th of 38 working the distance. This was her slowest 1/2 mile ever on raw time and 2nd worst ranking amongst other workers.

Baffert also took the blinkers off. Horse worked through the stretch with her head cocked to the right while drifting in slightly.

Not sure if all the change ups were status quo for the first work back, experimentation, or utter desperation.
I know where my money is.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:11 PM   #96
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No one thinks they are controversial. It’s amusing watching you cover every single base you can to come back to this thread and say “see I told you so” regardless of how she runs.

Just like you did after the Breeders Cup. No one could possibly read the post you made and think you scored out. But sure enough, the race wasn’t even official and you quoted yourself (leaving out the part that showed you covering all the bases) to say you crushed it.

It’s just funny.
I think my posts before the BC are pretty clear.

1. I thought "the wise guys" were underestimating Princess Noor's chances of jumping up a lot (she did not), but I was probably going to play against her anyway at the price because of the large figure gap.

2. The only horses I mentioned positively were Vekoma and Dayoutotheoffice with a preferences for Vekoma turning the tables. I explained why. I also said I didn't like Simply Ravishing as much and explained why.

Maybe my post after the race was in poor taste, but it was a kind of momentary expression of joy to people I've known here for a long time. From now on I'll just count the money privately.

This is the exact reason I don't post selections very often. I don't get paid to be a public handicapper and spell it all out and I don't want to deal with the nonsense.

I'm not trying to hedge anything. IMO, there are no right answers.

In the same way I thought the "wise guys" were underestimating the probability of PN jumping up a lot in the Juvenile (and I still do even though she did not), I think they are still underestimating her ability to get a lot better now. It's not a YES or NO answer. Even after the fact it's a probability problem that's part of deciding whether to make a bet.

I can't even tell you what the probability is. But when people that bet against her in BC are acting like it was a foregone conclusion that she had little chance going into the BC because she was slower, I disagree.

Those are the same people that whine whenever a slower Baffert or Cox horse jumps up to beat them at a decent price instead of building it into their odds line properly and maybe using some of them.

If PN loses her next start, Baffert makes up an excuse, and retires her, I will still disagree about the probabilities.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:41 PM   #97
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I may make a play in that race, but I'm not salivating to key against Princess Noor. The gap is just so huge I can take a stab.
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I think my posts before the BC are pretty clear.

1. I thought "the wise guys" were underestimating Princess Noor's chances of jumping up a lot (she did not), but I was probably going to play against her anyway at the price because of the large figure gap.

2. The only horses I mentioned positively were Vekoma and Dayoutotheoffice with a preferences for Vekoma turning the tables. I explained why. I also said I didn't like Simply Ravishing as much and explained why.

Maybe my post after the race was in poor taste, but it was a kind of momentary expression of joy to people I've known here for a long time. From now on I'll just count the money privately.

This is the exact reason I don't post selections very often. I don't get paid to be a public handicapper and spell it all out and I don't want to deal with the nonsense.

I'm not trying to hedge anything. IMO, there are no right answers.

In the same way I thought the "wise guys" were underestimating the probability of PN jumping up a lot in the Juvenile (and I still do even though she did not), I think they are still underestimating her ability to get a lot better now. It's not a YES or NO answer. Even after the fact it's a probability problem that's part of deciding whether to make a bet.

I can't even tell you what the probability is. But when people that bet against her in BC are acting like it was a foregone conclusion that she had little chance going into the BC because she was slower, I disagree.

Those are the same people that whine whenever a slower Baffert or Cox horse jumps up to beat them at a decent price instead of building it into their odds line properly and maybe using some of them.

If PN loses her next start, Baffert makes up an excuse, and retires her, I will still disagree about the probabilities.
Yeah it was crystal clear.

I think you don’t have strong opinions and like to cover all bases because you don’t like being wrong and have a hard time admitting when you are. You’re basically saying, regardless of how Princess Noor’s career shakes out, you are right.

Again, I just find it all funny. You were vague before, you picked and chose what parts of your post you’d highlight to show you “crushed it” and now you’re being vague after. You’ve moved on to probabilities, while saying you can’t even tell what the probability is. It’s a lot of words, without actually having to have an opinion. Whatever.
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Old 11-22-2020, 12:48 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think my posts before the BC are pretty clear.

1. I thought "the wise guys" were underestimating Princess Noor's chances of jumping up a lot (she did not), but I was going to play against her anyway at the price because of the large figure gap.
In other words, other people who played against Princess Noor were wrong in their reasoning (the large figure gap) but you were right in playing against Princess Noor (because of the large figure gap).

That's a contrarian who's come full circle.

Quote:
In the same way I thought the "wise guys" were underestimating the probability of PN jumping up a lot in the Juvenile (and I still do even though she did not), I think they are still underestimating her ability to get a lot better now. It's not a YES or NO answer. It's a probability problem that's part of deciding whether to make a bet.

I can't even tell you what the probability is. But when people that bet against her in BC are acting like it was a foregone conclusion that she had little chance going into the BC because she was slower, I disagree.

Those are the same people that whine whenever a slower Baffert or Cox horse jumps up to beat them at a decent price instead of building it into their odds line properly and maybe using some of them.
Again, you are cutting things too fine and yet your own assertions are built on a rickety foundation.

Just because other people dismissed Princess Noor definitively before the race doesn't mean they did not consider it a "probability" problem. What if in their view her probability to improve A LOT was 1 out of 1000? Really the difference between the "wise guys" and your own analysis is that the former were able to make a concrete decision whereas you remained indecisive.

So if you're estimate of the probability of Princess Noor jumping up 15-20 points in a single start in her toughest assignment to date was higher than everyone else's, what was the evidence to back it up?

You mentioned that being trained by Bob Baffert or Brad Cox and/or being gushed about by Bob Baffert somehow supports the rather fantastic notion she would improve several lengths. Who are these mythical creatures that have made such jumps in major races? And how do you discern which horses Baffert is really gushing about if he talks up every single horse (as most trainers would)? Cherry-picking a Triple Crown winner and a temporary superhorse using hindsight doesn't cut it.

In the end, you don't believe any of that stuff yourself because you didn't back her in the race.

Vekoma was scratched by the way.

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If PN loses her next start, Baffert makes up an excuse, and retires her, I will still disagree about the probabilities.
This thread reminds me of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia:

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Old 11-22-2020, 01:12 PM   #99
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Not sure if all the change ups were status quo for the first work back, experimentation, or utter desperation.
Why would he be desperate?

She's already a multiple stakes winner and has her Grade 1.

I'm sure he'd way prefer she move forward and earn a lot of money, but there should be a few soft spots in CA. If she loses or he doesn't like how she's doing I think they can call it a day and probably still do fine overall despite the steep purchase price.
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Old 11-22-2020, 01:54 PM   #100
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In other words, other people who played against Princess Noor were wrong in their reasoning (the large figure gap) but you were right in playing against Princess Noor (because of the large figure gap).
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Vekoma was scratched by the way.
(I meant Vequist).

It was the degree of dismissal I thought was a good conversation.

A lot of people on my twitter feed and elsewhere seemed to be salivating to bet against her because she was so much slower. Obviously, I was not, said so, and gave my reasoning.

Truth be told, I didn't make up my mind to make a good bet until Joy's Rocket wired the 2nd race that day and I was more convinced of the quality of the Dayoutoftheoffice/Vequist race.

I also cut back my win bet on Vequist and used Dayoutoftheoffice more than I expected to when I posted my original thoughts a week before the race. I expected the gap in odds on Vequist and Dayoutoftheoffice to be a little wider.

Just expressing that truth is a problem.

Quite frankly, this thread has convinced me once and for all I should never post tentative opinions on horses before races or publicly celebrate any wins when I have good day. Unless you are playing horses with me in real time, you won't know how my thinking is changing as I see races develop and see the odds etc.. And since I'm not getting paid to do it in real time and no one is going to believe me anyway, what the fvck is the point?

My attempts to add to the conversation are a negative for me.

I'll keep my thoughts private, count my winnings, tear up my tickets, and calculate the year end ROI in private and hope it's a +.
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:12 PM   #101
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Why would he be desperate?
Not sure, but I know if he was not desperate, he wouldn't be trying new things with a horse that heretofore was the embodiment of equine perfection.

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She's already a multiple stakes winner and has her Grade 1.
If that's his mentality (which sucks by the way) then maybe he's not desperate but rather just throwing sh!t against the wall and hoping it sticks.

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I'm sure he'd way prefer she move forward and earn a lot of money, but there should be a few soft spots in CA. If she loses or he doesn't like how she's doing I think they can call it a day and probably still do fine overall despite the steep purchase price.
I was never worried about the financial implications for the uber-wealthy businessman that owns this horse.

I'm more interested in her getting an opportunity to run at both 3 and 4 so we can get a true gauge of her talent.

Wheeling back in the Starlet even if she can win IMO puts her at risk for the negative scenario you spelled out above. If it comes to pass, it would be a cop out; and would leave some fooled by the "probability" that she was better than she showed.
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:35 PM   #102
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Just expressing that truth is a problem.

Quite frankly, this thread has convinced me once and for all I should never post tentative opinions on horses before races or publicly celebrate any wins when I have good day. Unless you are playing horses with me in real time, you won't know how my thinking is changing as I see races develop and see the odds etc.. And since I'm not getting paid to do it in real time and no one is going to believe me anyway, what the fvck is the point?

My attempts to add to the conversation are a negative for me.

I'll keep my thoughts private, count my winnings, tear up my tickets, and calculate the year end ROI in private and hope it's a +.
Oh stop with the victim stuff. It was a good conversation before the race and still is.

You’re trying to have it both ways and are upset you were called on it. That’s it.
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Old 11-22-2020, 02:41 PM   #103
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I'm not trying to hedge anything. IMO, there are no right answers.
I enjoy you commentary.

Not here trying to grade you.

We talked about the races.

and they were valid points. the 'jump up' threat in a big barn is a real thing, and we saw a few performances BC Weekend illustrate that.

That's a significant model.

add to that, the fact that she looked solid in the workouts... , and if you go back, albeit in soft races, she has always been heavily backed, and maybe you occasionally correlate hype and trainer-speak a bit in the mix as well...

all of these happen to be minor models moving in that direction.

So you have a 'tradeoff' and it gets complicated, and you can split hairs...

back to the simple, most significant stuff = the price

at favorite and around 2/1 the odds were a strong enough model, along with the speed and class models, that there was enough margin for error and for calculating less significant models and possibilities.

If she had been 10/1, the whole argument gets flipped, and you have sharps saying "you want to include her in any spreads"...
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Old 11-22-2020, 03:10 PM   #104
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Oh stop with the victim stuff. It was a good conversation before the race and still is.

You’re trying to have it both ways and are upset you were called on it. That’s it.
Besides the hilarity of his victim act, it's pretty amusing that he recently trashed me for actually having pre-race opinions.

I just consider the source:-)
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Old 11-22-2020, 03:11 PM   #105
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If she had been 10/1, the whole argument gets flipped, and you have sharps saying "you want to include her in any spreads"...
I think you’re missing the point.

Before the race Princess Noor has a big reputation based on a hefty price tag, workout reports and trainer speak. She had also looked good visually in her races, while running slow doing it. Sharps were salivating to bet against her because she was facing the best field by far she was going to face and she was lengths slower than them in her races. The cherry on top was she figured to be the favorite.

She was going to have to beat by far and away the best field she had faced, while also running much faster than she had shown she can. Sharps looked at the possibility she could do that as being very slim and we’re rewarded handsomely for it.

IMO when you get rid of the background noise of what Baffert says about her and who she was beating in workouts you have a pretty clear cut example of a slow horse who will be at worst 2nd choice facing faster horses.

She was never going to be 10-1. The water is muddy enough in here. Why throw more dirt in?
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