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Old 09-07-2006, 02:59 PM   #1
ValueBetting
Dave Johnson
 
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Thumbs up POSTSCRIPT - VALUE BETTING AT THE RACETRACK

To All:

As you know, I have a computer-generated odds line with "fair odds" from
1/1 through 7/1 on the win contenders in each race at most racetracks
in North America.

In reviewing your remarks on Parts I - III, together with Barry Meadow's
comments, you are OF COURSE correct that what I have documented is not
necessarily "profit" but "win" performance.

That is, for example, if you bet all The Valuline horses listed at 1/1, you
have a verified 50% chance to win (that is, cash your ticket).

You do NOT have a 50% chance to make a "profit," unless the mutuel
of the winners is MORE THAN 1/1.

(That is, you may "lose" ( if most winners are less than 1/1)
you may "win" ( if most winners are more than 1/1).

Sorry - I apparently didn't explain this clearly early on.

I must conclude there's some great white sharks among you.

Sincerely,
Dave

I do know that having an instantaneously available betting line is a great help to me in finding the best betting opportunites among many racetracks, even though some of you (obviously serious and expert handicappers) can perhaps match it for your "home" track, after much work.

Verification of the stats you want will expectedly come later. Adieu.
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Old 09-07-2006, 03:25 PM   #2
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I can make an odds line for every track running with the push of a button. You are not the only one using a computer.
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Old 09-07-2006, 03:31 PM   #3
JustMissed
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Could you explain where the "Value" comes from?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ValueBetting
To All:


I do know that having an instantaneously available betting line is a great help to me in finding the best betting opportunites among many racetracks, even though some of you (obviously serious and expert handicappers) can perhaps match it for your "home" track, after much work.

Verification of the stats you want will expectedly come later. Adieu.
Would you mind explaining where the value comes from? I am not sure that measuring the difference between self-calculated betting lines(or oddsline if you prefer) and the tote odds(or expected payoff as I prefer) really means anything.

After all, two guys could very well be standing next to each other by the rail and one guy makes the #2 horse to be 5-2. The guy standing next to him may make that same horse 3-1. If the #2 horse wins and pays $9, both guys make a $7 profit. How could there be more value for one player over the other.

I strongly suspect that "value betting" is just a gimmick some book writer came up with to sell another book and was quickly picked up by the software developers in order to ad another enhancement to their handicapping software.

It is possible that I am wrong and would gladly admit so if you would please show me an example of value betting and how it causes you to make more profit in the long or short term.

Thanks,

JM
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Old 09-07-2006, 03:39 PM   #4
sjk
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When you bet the horses which have odds greater than your odds line you are betting perceived value.

At the end of the year when you have a lot more money in the account than you started with you know that your perceived value is real value.
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Old 09-07-2006, 04:07 PM   #5
JustMissed
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Do You Have An Example?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
When you bet the horses which have odds greater than your odds line you are betting perceived value.

At the end of the year when you have a lot more money in the account than you started with you know that your perceived value is real value.
I understand that the perception exist that perceived value becomes real value if you strictly only bet horses that will pay more than they "should pay" based upon the player's assigned probability to win.

It sounds good in theory that you would make more money in the long run if when you cash a ticket it is for more than "you should be paid" and when you lose a bet you only lose the same amount as you do when betting an underlay.

The problem seems to be in the measurement. The track odds and expected payoffs are rock solid numbers. Your betting(odds)line is just a guestimate at best. How the heck can you quantify the comparison between a guess and a rock solid number?

JM
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Old 09-07-2006, 04:11 PM   #6
GameTheory
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustMissed
After all, two guys could very well be standing next to each other by the rail and one guy makes the #2 horse to be 5-2. The guy standing next to him may make that same horse 3-1. If the #2 horse wins and pays $9, both guys make a $7 profit. How could there be more value for one player over the other.

I strongly suspect that "value betting" is just a gimmick some book writer came up with to sell another book and was quickly picked up by the software developers in order to ad another enhancement to their handicapping software.
How times are you gonna bring this up? The payoff for a single race is obviously the same, but one guy may be able to find MORE PLAYS than the other over time, so he'll make more money. If the 5-2 guy is "right", that means he is "more right" than the 3-1 guy because he would bet the horse AT 3-1 and the other guy would not. If the horse had gone off at 3-1, one guy would have bet and cashed, and the other would not have bet at all.

Look at it this way -- your goal when making an oddlines is to give the eventual winner the lowest fair-odds you can, because the lower the fair odds, the greater the chance that the toteboard odds will exceed that and you'll get to bet on him.

Value betting is not a gimmick -- it is the fundamental mathematical principle of making a profit on any investment, horse-racing or otherwise, that involves anything less than a 100% chance of a guaranteed return of a certain amount. Same thing applies when you buy a stock, or start a business -- pretty much any investment, and all it means is that the potential return must justify the risk. That's it.

Last edited by GameTheory; 09-07-2006 at 04:17 PM.
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Old 09-07-2006, 04:36 PM   #7
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Valuline

And it should be duly noted that Dr. J's "Valuline," whether you accept it or not, is computer-calculated based on some 7,500 "equations" as part of its "comprehensive handicapping analysis" of any given race.

I dare say that's a much more in-depth analysis of the many race-affecting factors than 99% of us can do "by hand" no matter how well we read a DRF.
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Old 09-07-2006, 04:42 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoyTwoTC
And it should be duly noted that Dr. J's "Valuline," whether you accept it or not, is computer-calculated based on some 7,500 "equations" as part of its "comprehensive handicapping analysis" of any given race.

I dare say that's a much more in-depth analysis of the many race-affecting factors than 99% of us can do "by hand" no matter how well we read a DRF.
None of that has anything to do with whether it's worth anything, though. We all have computers. What if I told you my program had 7501 equations? Does that mean its better?
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Old 09-07-2006, 05:18 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustMissed
After all, two guys could very well be standing next to each other by the rail and one guy makes the #2 horse to be 5-2. The guy standing next to him may make that same horse 3-1. If the #2 horse wins and pays $9, both guys make a $7 profit. How could there be more value for one player over the other.JM
If you're comparing two oddslines, and only looking at cases where the tote odds are either lower than both of them, or higher than both of them, both are obviously going to give you the same bet decisions and same bet results. The differences are going to occur when the tote odds split the odds estimates set by the two lines. One will recommend "bet", the other will recommend "pass", and over time, one might prove to be correct more often than the other.
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Old 09-07-2006, 05:50 PM   #10
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Please, please show me an example!

Quote:
Originally Posted by GameTheory
Value betting is not a gimmick -- it is the fundamental mathematical principle of making a profit on any investment, horse-racing or otherwise, that involves anything less than a 100% chance of a guaranteed return of a certain amount. Same thing applies when you buy a stock, or start a business -- pretty much any investment, and all it means is that the potential return must justify the risk. That's it.
GT, Thanks for your reply.

If value betting is not a gimmick-please show me an example using "fundamental mathematical principles".

I am not sure what the correct term is, but I will use "urban myth" for lack of a better word. Isn't "value betting" somewhat an urban myth?

You guys read about it and it seemed to make sense and more importantly you believed it would help you make more money but in reality, there is no such thing.

Perhaps you are confusing value betting with calculating your edge.

Thanks,

JM
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Old 09-07-2006, 06:03 PM   #11
sjk
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You don't seem to believe that people are making lots of money by betting value.

They are whether you believe it or not.
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Old 09-07-2006, 06:40 PM   #12
GameTheory
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustMissed
If value betting is not a gimmick-please show me an example using "fundamental mathematical principles".
Didn't I just? Didn't some others too? Didn't they also last time you asked about it, and the time before that? You are being willfully dense, for what reason I don't know. You are really invested in making value-betting a "myth". Did a value better steal your wife or something?
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Old 09-07-2006, 06:47 PM   #13
ryesteve
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustMissed
Perhaps you are confusing value betting with calculating your edge.
Well, if you calculate your edge, and it's positive, you're engaged in value betting, no? I'm not sure what distinction you're attempting to make here...
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Old 09-07-2006, 06:52 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustMissed
After all, two guys could very well be standing next to each other by the rail and one guy makes the #2 horse to be 5-2. The guy standing next to him may make that same horse 3-1. If the #2 horse wins and pays $9, both guys make a $7 profit. How could there be more value for one player over the other.
One way could be if, instead of each betting the same amount, they were sizing their wagers based on the amount of overlay the horse offered according to their respective betting lines, so that the one who had the horse at lower odds in his line would make more. There could also be cases where a horse would be an overlay on one player's line, and an underlay on another's, in which case the net outcome would hinge on whether the horse won or lost, and how big an overlay it was on the one player's line. Of course, the final gauge of how accurate each player's line was would be the degree to which it corresponded to the actual winning percentage of horses at each of its odds levels (based on a 100% betting line) over a representatively large number of races. (Then there is also the issue that has already been mentioned of how accurate the odds line remains as the toteboard odds go up, and the effect of that on the overall net wagering result.)
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Old 09-08-2006, 01:24 AM   #15
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Better?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenhead
Does that mean its better?
Only if it predicts win probabilities better than Dr. J's program does over an extended sample of races (he used 300K).
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