Maker at Saratoga

[Brass Hat]

This is probably not a unique view, but it looks as if Michael Maker is using the races at Saratoga to set up his horses for the Kentucky Downs meet. Has an unusually poor winning percentage for this early in the meet, and his runners are not really contending either, many first or second off layoff. Wonder if the big purses at KD are affecting trainers' intents in some of the Saratoga turf races.

[the little guy]

Wait, you think Maker doesn't want to win here? Seriously?

[wisconsin]

Having a very tough meet at Ellis, 0-for-23

[Brass Hat]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Wait, you think Maker doesn't want to win here? Seriously?

I am not saying he doesn't want to win at Saratoga. In previous years he did well at the beginning of the Saratoga meets; this year is poor so far. His horses are not being bet and they are not hitting the board. I like to play him because his horses are usually underbet but this meet I feel foolish when I do bet one that runs up the track, because few people are putting money on it.

He had a record setting meet at Kentucky Downs last year where the purses are high. His horses that I've looked at so far are in the midst of a form cycle, usually first or second off the layoff, and a race would seem to set them up well to hit their peak at KD where the purses are higher.

Does every trainer enter a horse in a race thinking he will win? Walsh was quoted in the Saratoga Special as entering a horse in a race that would set him up for the Allen Jerkens, and I was told by a trainer last year before a race that he needed to get a horse a race although it wasn't the best situation either for timing or distance (the horse won).

Why is his barn off to a poor start? Is it like Rudy Rodriguez last year? I am looking at this as a bettor and part of wagering is interpreting trainer's intent for a horse.

[metro]

Last year Steve Asmussen used a prep at Saratoga for a race at Kentucky Downs a month later. Red Route One for owner Ron Winchell....who also happens to own KD. Non threatening 5th at Sar, going away winner at KD.

It happens.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by Brass Hat

This is probably not a unique view, but it looks as if Michael Maker is using the races at Saratoga to set up his horses for the Kentucky Downs meet. Has an unusually poor winning percentage for this early in the meet, and his runners are not really contending either, many first or second off layoff. Wonder if the big purses at KD are affecting trainers' intents in some of the Saratoga turf races.

You happen to be corrsct and Makers is bot the only one as someone else mentioned Steve Asmussen and there is also Wesley Ward.


Don't worry Metro. Just make sure you bet Maker at KD and point out to the naysayers it will come true.


THAT IS WHERE THERE OWNERS AND BREEDERS CAN SEE THEM ON THEIR OWN TURF...PUN INTENDED.



Only a few weeks away. Don't forget to take your own advice and great observation.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Boomer

You happen to be corrsct and Makers is bot the only one as someone else mentioned Steve Asmussen and there is also Wesley Ward.


Don't worry Metro. Just make sure you bet Maker at KD and point out to the naysayers it will come true.


THAT IS WHERE THERE OWNERS AND BREEDERS CAN SEE THEM ON THEIR OWN TURF...PUN INTENDED.



Only a few weeks away. Don't forget to take your own advice and great observation.

Yes, noted turf trainer Steve Asmussen is using Saratoga to prep for Kentucky Downs. Makes perfect sense.

[metro]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Yes, noted turf trainer Steve Asmussen is using Saratoga to prep for Kentucky Downs. Makes perfect sense.

If Kentucky Downs was an all dirt racing facility maybe you would have gotten the point.

[MJC922]

I know I'm in the minority with this view but I suspect if you take a hundred 20% 'trainers' and run them through a monte carlo simulation you're going to get a small subset of 0'for 20s or 1 for 30s here and there. While there may be an actual reason behind this particular one I would wager most often it's random variance. I mean the fact that it's a 'trainer' does not somehow negate the very reality of statistical variation. These stats make great talking points but honestly the cases where there's anything actually behind it (particularly ROI) are rare IMO. With that being said clearly some trainers do point for specific meets. I have no knowledge of Maker and where he makes his plans of attack but opening month spring meet where I played it was usually the same handful of trainers who would have them cranked up right away. That was definitely not random. One in particular would lead the meet for the first months of spring and then barely be able to win any sort of race in the fall.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I know I'm in the minority with this view but I suspect if you take a hundred 20% 'trainers' and run them through a monte carlo simulation you're going to get a small subset of 0'for 20s or 1 for 30s here and there. While there may be an actual reason behind this particular one I would wager most often it's random variance. I mean the fact that it's a 'trainer' does not somehow negate the very reality of statistical variation. These stats make great talking points but honestly the cases where there's anything actually behind it (particularly ROI) are rare IMO. With that being said clearly some trainers do point for specific meets. I have no knowledge of Maker and where he makes his plans of attack but opening month spring meet where I played it was usually the same handful of trainers who would have them cranked up right away. That was definitely not random. One in particular would lead the meet for the first months of spring and then barely be able to win any sort of race in the fall.

I agree with this.

We face the same issue when it comes to "trainer patterns". Handicappers will sometimes attribute random distributions of success or failure to strengths and weaknesses and adjust their betting, but most often it's often just statistical noise. It's tough to know even with decent sized samples.

If the sample is large enough to actually be statistically significant, then pretty much everyone else knows about it also. So even though it should impact your thinking, there's probably not much if any betting value left in the knowledge.

I think there was WAY more value in trainer patterns before the database and Formulator era even though the trainer factor seems to have a bigger impact on the outcomes now.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by Brass Hat

This is probably not a unique view, but it looks as if Michael Maker is using the races at Saratoga to set up his horses for the Kentucky Downs meet. Has an unusually poor winning percentage for this early in the meet, and his runners are not really contending either, many first or second off layoff. Wonder if the big purses at KD are affecting trainers' intents in some of the Saratoga turf races.

Maker will have a gig meet at Kentucky Downs. Won race 1 with a firster easily.


I am particularly interested in how the does in race 6. 20-1 ML doubt you will see that.


and the in race 7