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View Poll Results: Omaha Beach or Roadster
Omaha Beach 124 65.96%
Roadster 64 34.04%
Voters: 188. This poll is closed

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Old 04-16-2019, 06:13 PM   #46
bob60566
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Mike Smith and Omaha Beach

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/47713-mi...y-per-mandella

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Old 04-16-2019, 06:16 PM   #47
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This will be an unpopular opinion but I think the value may be in tossing Roadster and OB... I'd much rather have the 2nd place finishers out of those races at comparable odds.

Nitpicking here but I do not like the fact that OB has raced 4 times already this year. Ark derby was obviously impressive but I want to make him prove it again on 3 weeks rest. Even if he runs back to that race, he's no better than 5-1 in here, imo. Bad value and decent chance he runs out
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Old 04-16-2019, 06:40 PM   #48
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And Florent Geroux on Roadster.


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Old 04-17-2019, 08:55 AM   #49
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This will be an unpopular opinion but I think the value may be in tossing Roadster and OB... I'd much rather have the 2nd place finishers out of those races at comparable odds.

Nitpicking here but I do not like the fact that OB has raced 4 times already this year. Ark derby was obviously impressive but I want to make him prove it again on 3 weeks rest. Even if he runs back to that race, he's no better than 5-1 in here, imo. Bad value and decent chance he runs out
Do you know that OB is F1? Yikes. Tossing him is like tossing let’s see Smarty jones. Roadster I can see not hitting the first three depending on traffic.
Omaha beach will hit in the top three.

Allan
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:34 AM   #50
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Do you know that OB is F1? Yikes. Tossing him is like tossing let’s see Smarty jones.
I agree but also agree the place horses in the Ark and SA are game. I'm just not so sure those will offer that much more in the way of value. There is some weird Baffert obsession out there to go with the solid form of those horses.

I'm guessing my primary exacta play pending the draw will be Omaha and Maximum wheeled with Game Winner and Improbable assuming the probables offer enough bang for the buck as they usually do in a 20 horse field. That's only $6 times how many times I want to play it. I'll probably reverse that play for a lesser amount. Same with the trifecta then it's just a matter of how deep on the bottom tier.

Since I already have Game Winner and Improbable over and under two-thirds the field courtesy of the All Others button in the future pools, I will add some form of hedging with a couple horses that I feel have the best chance to ruin those plays.
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Old 04-17-2019, 04:45 PM   #51
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Do you know that OB is F1? Yikes. Tossing him is like tossing let’s see Smarty jones. Roadster I can see not hitting the first three depending on traffic.
Omaha beach will hit in the top three.

Allan
What is an F1?
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Old 04-20-2019, 02:49 PM   #52
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my problem with roadster is that you don't know where he will be in the race.

it shouldn't surprise anyone he'll be in the second ten early on as well.

at least tacitus showed early foot in the wood, which offers some hope at a decent spot in the derby, but roadster might not be that fortunate.
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Old 04-20-2019, 03:05 PM   #53
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The more I look at the race the more I think the 2 best horses to date are Omaha beach and Game Winner. There are other horses that are close enough to be considered contenders, but I think they are going to have to improve more or get a better trip than the top 2 to beat them.

Of those, Roadster (who was considered Baffert's #1 horse before he had breathing issues), Tacitus, and Code of Honor may be the one most likely to jump up. Maximum Security is the "all or nothing" horse.
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Old 04-20-2019, 07:46 PM   #54
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Both of these horses ('x' and 'y') got favorable trips to win their final prep:

TFUS
X=117
Y = 113

BEYER
X =97
Y = 98

BRIS
X =102
Y =98

Right now the Las Vegas odds are about 30/1 for 'X' (By My Standards) and about 4/1 for 'Y' (Roadster)...



Yea, I'm aware that Roadster is trained by Baffert. He's an intriguing horse.

But the fact that Baffert mentioned him in that TMZ video, and the fact that he's trained by Baffert is very much accounted for by the public.
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:16 AM   #55
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https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...aha_Beach_123#


Omaha Beach dealing with a quarter crack... but to my understanding he had it since before the Rebel...
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:53 AM   #56
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Right now the Las Vegas odds are about 30/1 for 'X' (By My Standards) and about 4/1 for 'Y' (Roadster)...


Yea, I'm aware that Roadster is trained by Baffert. He's an intriguing horse.

But the fact that Baffert mentioned him in that TMZ video, and the fact that he's trained by Baffert is very much accounted for by the public.
That's one of the things that makes this Derby kind of interesting.

The gap between the 1st tier preps and 2nd tier preps is not very large in terms of Beyer figures this year. Owendale's Lexington (98) and even Cutting Humor's Sunland Derby (95) also fit in fairly well on Beyer.

Horses have been duplicating or exceeding their Beyers out of the Louisiana Derby (97). So that's at least encouraging.

But I can't help but think that if one of these 2nd tier prep horses wins the Derby and it's not trip related, that says more about the quality of the major preps than anything else. The 2nd tier winners haven't been crushing their fields and did not look like exceptional prospects going into them (other than maybe Spinoff). So how good can they be?
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Old 04-21-2019, 12:23 PM   #57
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That's one of the things that makes this Derby kind of interesting.

The gap between the 1st tier preps and 2nd tier preps is not very large in terms of Beyer figures this year. Owendale's Lexington (98) and even Cutting Humor's Sunland Derby (95) also fit in fairly well on Beyer.

Horses have been duplicating or exceeding their Beyers out of the Louisiana Derby (97). So that's at least encouraging.

But I can't help but think that if one of these 2nd tier prep horses wins the Derby and it's not trip related, that says more about the quality of the major preps than anything else. The 2nd tier winners haven't been crushing their fields and did not look like exceptional prospects going into them (other than maybe Spinoff). So how good can they be?
I agree.

This year, the TimeformUS figs are especially interesting, because they account for pace. Even just the blue vs. red pace color indicators is something of a help to separate from very evenly spread Beyer figures.

-On the Roadster vs. By My Standards stuff - Not 100% 'fair', because out of the 20 or 30 derby points PPs, I kind of (intentionally) hand-picked those two similarities. I'm not a BMS fan (although if somebody reading this is, don't let me talk you off @ 30/1 !), and I actually was really impressed by Roadster in a few ways (his turn-of-foot, his apparent love for 9f+, and now his recent work where he basically circled the track at a good clip). Roadster is raw, and while Justify was a certainty barring trouble, injury(which he actually sustained and still won, etc...) Roadster is a lot less certain and not much better price.

However, the post was made with your comments involved; the 'paper' form doesn't match the hype. Here are two contenders with similar paper form, but radically different pricing, and that Roadster comes with a bandwagon of fans, perhaps even an underlay.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:01 PM   #58
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I agree.

This year, the TimeformUS figs are especially interesting, because they account for pace. Even just the blue vs. red pace color indicators is something of a help to separate from very evenly spread Beyer figures.

-On the Roadster vs. By My Standards stuff - Not 100% 'fair', because out of the 20 or 30 derby points PPs, I kind of (intentionally) hand-picked those two similarities. I'm not a BMS fan (although if somebody reading this is, don't let me talk you off @ 30/1 !), and I actually was really impressed by Roadster in a few ways (his turn-of-foot, his apparent love for 9f+, and now his recent work where he basically circled the track at a good clip). Roadster is raw, and while Justify was a certainty barring trouble, injury(which he actually sustained and still won, etc...) Roadster is a lot less certain and not much better price.

However, the post was made with your comments involved; the 'paper' form doesn't match the hype. Here are two contenders with similar paper form, but radically different pricing, and that Roadster comes with a bandwagon of fans, perhaps even an underlay.
There is a reason for the huge difference in odds. Roadster WILL be a superstar where By My Standards will be lucky to be a G3 winner against older down the road. There is no comparing the two. The only question is will Roadster be ready at Derby time to prove his greatness.
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Old 04-21-2019, 07:24 PM   #59
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There is a reason for the huge difference in odds. Roadster WILL be a superstar where By My Standards will be lucky to be a G3 winner against older down the road. There is no comparing the two. The only question is will Roadster be ready at Derby time to prove his greatness.
My concern about this horse, in this race, is Smith said he has a amazing turf of foot and my experience is those horses may not do better stretching out.

I can see him winning but he feels like a horse that may be better suited to the races up to 9 furlongs. I wont be shocked if he wins but the price is pretty short for 4 career starts.
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:34 PM   #60
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https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...aha_Beach_123#


Omaha Beach dealing with a quarter crack... but to my understanding he had it since before the Rebel...

As long as he doesn't add a bar shoe he should be OK.
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