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Old 03-22-2018, 12:22 PM   #46
shout1966
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More drama just watched the replay of the race as the are going into the gate the 7 is 7-1. Someone confirm this.
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Old 03-22-2018, 12:22 PM   #47
Robert Fischer
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action packed, I'll take a look

This is interesting.

My 'bright idea' was that this horse was in a racing partnership. I looked up the race, and I see a single owner with no obvious indication of partnership money. Partnership money does not seem to apply here.

Gulfstream has had some interesting pool behavior this meet. I mean that sincerely, not negatively. Lots of good healthy pool 'action'. Lots of behavior-based action. I've seen partnerships in general, and a few specific partnerships consistently bet themselves into an underlay (meaning the partnerships are having fun and betting on their own horse). I've seen first-time-starters hyped into heavy favoritism despite no real stakes ability. I've seen bad morning lines where the public commits to betting an overlayed 2nd or 3rd choice when they sink their teeth into the form, -and by the time the race rolls around a day or two later, that horse is now the 'wise guy' and is a heavy enough favorite that we'd be better off betting the 'ml favorite' who is now a reasonable 2nd or 3rd choice.

That isn't to say there hasn't been head-scratchers.
I've seen some horses, even some by super-trainers who on the paper form pretty much 'ruined' the chances of a good betting race open up ice cold on the early money. No public info would cause this. No reasonable amount of public consensus would say "hey, let's all randomly toss Navarro's freaky Beyer sprinter in the 5th!" public crowd consensus. So you have to scratch away the growing bald spot and allow for a possibility that there is negative inside info. For this meet at least, I'd put more stock in the odds-behavior when a horse is ice-cold than when a horse is red-hot.

You also hear the rail birds squawking when a jock falls off a favorite, or when a sure-to-graduate favorite breaks poorly and finds trouble, and then is claimed. I honestly don't know if any of that is more than random bad luck, but if they are a better price 1st time back in the new barn, I try to find a way to use them. There's a lot of interesting stuff between the inside info, the crowd's behavior, the claiming game, the rainbow 6...


Haven't watched the race. Will download the PPs and watch the race this evening and see if anything jumps out...
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Old 03-22-2018, 12:23 PM   #48
shout1966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
All I did was look at his last race...still can't believe the BS.

The field yesterday towered over what he faced in his last.

Sometimes the answer is the simplest one.

Last edited by shout1966; 03-22-2018 at 12:28 PM.
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Old 03-23-2018, 12:36 AM   #49
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Everyone must be using BRIS then...because both Beyer and TFUS didn't see it that way...
BRIS is using automation to make figures. I'd be surprised if they didn't just luck into one here. I'd bet money they don't take all the different rail settings and run ups into account when making the figures.
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Old 03-23-2018, 11:15 AM   #50
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Or the times.....didn't they publish pace figures for, I think it was Mahoning Valley, when the splits were not being taken at all?
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