Breeders Cup 2015-PA Version of the Legendary Trips and Traps

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And, if Tonalist COULDN'T beat AP while tracking him...EMD4ME would be back here telling us about how JV was under the impression that he was entered in a "quarter-horse race at Los Alamitos".

If you told me they would line up AP and Tonalist 2nd in a match race on a fair race track at 10F, I'd bet 10 years off my life that Tonalist would beat that phony AP's toushie mano a mano.

And if AP would win that match up, take the 10 years off my life and call me a Blanken Moron

AP has been one of the luckiest good horses that I have probably seen in my life. By far the most over rated horse that I have EVER seen.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Si2see

Emd4me, glad you are back I do have a question for you .... What are you going to do when tontalist retires Seriously you have put a lot of time and effort into this one horse kudos to you, hope he comes through for you and all of his other backers on here, I will add him on my tickets in case you are all correct, however I will go on record saying I have never been a big fan.

Fun fact for any of you who didn't know or didn't remember our very own Tom Schell's wife Lisa rode Ricks natural star in the breeders cup. It was pretty cool going through the scrapbook with them and seeing pictures and newspaper articles on how she couldn't even ride the horse in the mornings he was such a basket case...

Jason

I put this much time into a ten claimer, not just Tonalist. I love knowing as much as I can about each horse.

To answer your question, I'll be a bit sad as I like the horse but he's no Cigar in my heart.

However, his Belmont and the guts/determination he showed in that race, will forever stay with me. Reminded of me of Tiznow's determination in his 2nd BCC win.

[Si2see]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

This game is many times about nuggets. Finding nuggets that are not completely visible to everyone.

That is how I bet Princess of Sylmar in the Oaks at 38/1. Her beyer figures were too low (IN EVERY RACE) of her winter before the OAKS at AQU. She ran against biases, against flows and her numbers were erroneously low.

Was I kind of shocked in the OAKS? Yes...but not that she won but that she paid almost $80 bucks.

Tonalist might end up finishing a floundering 5th, doubt it. If Liam's Map was in the race, I'd put his true chances at 2/1. With Liam out, I'd say true odds of 4/1 to 5/1.

Nothing wrong with pounding out on a horse you think is 4/1 and will probably receive 7/1 on.

I've stated on here many times, don't bet with your heart. I don't do that. I'd bet against Cigar if there was value and I thought he could lose.

But to wrap this post up, what's better then horse players talking horses???

That's why I created this thread To agree, disagree but most importantly to talk horses.

I don't blame your theory or ideas at all. The breeders cup weekend I have always felt is the best weekend by far to load up on what you like, and you might only have to be correct once or twice. I had back to back classic winners when I was about as sure as you are that both Invasor and Curlin were the best horses in their own races by leaps and bounds ( I felt ) I wish you all the best and will be adding tontalist and honor code to a few saver tickets because of this thread , because there are a lot of smarter players than myself out there , but I'm not in love with either of them and until the day of the race this time I don't know if there is an Invasor or Curlin standout in my eyes

[cj]

Originally Posted by maclr11

ASD doesn't even run 2 claimers..... Gotta find something with smaller claiming prices if you want him to run for 2.

He actually ran in a mixed QH/TB race after the Breeder's Cup, a very cheap one at Los Al, and was up the track. He ran one more time at TuP, was claimed and retired for the good of the horse.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You can pass, but if enough people pass, he will be juicy odds and that's something I'll consider. Btw, if Tonalist was the horse pressing AP in the travers and had the exact same trip as Frosted, Tonalist would have beaten AP and he might have beaten him easily. Food for thought right there.

What do you base this on?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Si2see

I don't blame your theory or ideas at all. The breeders cup weekend I have always felt is the best weekend by far to load up on what you like, and you might only have to be correct once or twice. I had back to back classic winners when I was about as sure as you are that both Invasor and Curlin were the best horses in their own races by leaps and bounds ( I felt ) I wish you all the best and will be adding tontalist and honor code to a few saver tickets because of this thread , because there are a lot of smarter players than myself out there , but I'm not in love with either of them and until the day of the race this time I don't know if there is an Invasor or Curlin standout in my eyes

I miss Curlin....

Who do you like, why?

[Si2see]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I miss Curlin....

Who do you like, why?

I will let you know as it gets closer but at this point I Don't have my mind made up. I like watching as many workouts as they show, and really want to compare numbers. ( I use bris PPs not drf/beyer )

I had ap slammed in the Preakness , singled him in the Belmont on nice rolling doubles, I had keen ice in the travers but not positive either are coming into this race as well as they went in to those respective races, and a 3yo will have to run the race of their life and then some to win this race.

Any insight to , or does anyone want to talk about the other races ? I like this thread and it's always good to get as much insight as possible into big days like these.

Jason

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Si2see

I will let you know as it gets closer but at this point I Don't have my mind made up. I like watching as many workouts as they show, and really want to compare numbers. ( I use bris PPs not drf/beyer )

I had ap slammed in the Preakness , singled him in the Belmont on nice rolling doubles, I had keen ice in the travers but not positive either are coming into this race as well as they went in to those respective races, and a 3yo will have to run the race of their life and then some to win this race.

Any insight to , or does anyone want to talk about the other races ? I like this thread and it's always good to get as much insight as possible into big days like these.

Jason

Thanks Jason. Much appreciate the thoughts. How about you pick a race/horse to dissect?

[Si2see]

I would think the next logical race would be one of the more intriguing races without beholder. The distaff

This is a race I have always struggled with in the past. I remember missing the pick4 for over 8 grand when royal delta won one of her years. ( or I cost myself whatever royal delta paid for leaving her off the pick 4 ticket )

I normally would take the horses coming out of the keeneland prep, however I didn't love the spinster. The horse I was most impressed with in that race is how well yahillwa ran, however I would only use her as a log shot backup.

I think if the race was being run today I would probably take Curalina I'machatterbox or Wedding toast. I would typically not take a short price on a 3yo in a field like this either but I think chatterbox is peaking at the right time. Hopefully I can get around 9-2 to 10-1 on all 3 horses and I will probably wheel on top of trifecta and muti race wagers

Who does everyone like and why ?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

She had a tough time of it being that wide, but being on the rail that day was no bargain either.

Classhandicapper,

Do you have 10/4/15 at SA as a minus rail day/bad rail day/not pro rail day?

To what degree do you feel the rail was poor?

Thanks in advance,

EMD4ME

[maclr11]

Originally Posted by cj

He actually ran in a mixed QH/TB race after the Breeder's Cup, a very cheap one at Los Al, and was up the track. He ran one more time at TuP, was claimed and retired for the good of the horse.

I'm pretty sure I was like three years old when this happened. I don't really recall watching much racing before Tiznow lol.

But it sounds like they needed to take Rick to Rilito to try to find the winners circle.

[theotherside]

forget about endless discussions of what could of been if only he wasn't 3 wide and all of that,isn't this horse just basically slow.look at his past performances, where is it that he runs like a real grade 1 horse.if the race isn't weak he cant win, he really seems to be a grade 2 but probably grade 3 horse.

[Hoops McCann]

Tonalist outside of New York and Beholder outside of Cali - play against. simple as that. I think the winner comes from Honor Code or one of three 3 year olds - American Pharaoh, Frosted or Keen Ice.

[EMD4ME]

Go Tony GO!!!! Go Tony GO!!!

Run em down, MANO A MANO BABY!!!!

[EMD4ME]

He earned my respect today. I have no problem eating all the crow in the world.

Enjoy AP FANS