Why has technology left handicapping in the dust?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

But, hey, if you can out think the whales, even one race a day, you can still claim it's a beatable game.

Making horizontal bets, specifically pick 4-5's, is how you avoid the whales, they can't see what the public is betting.

Go where the whales have no edge.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Making horizontal bets, specifically pick 4-5's, is how you avoid the whales, they can't see what the public is betting.

Go where the whales have no edge.

The whales have deeper pockets than most people. They can spread wide when they deem it appropriate. Most people are seriously disadvantaged in P4, P5 and P6 wagering. And very disadvantaged in the rainbow P6 type wagers. The whales generally don't need to see the odds... they make the odds what they are.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

The whales have deeper pockets than most people. They can spread wide when they deem it appropriate. Most people are seriously disadvantaged in P4, P5 and P6 wagering. And very disadvantaged in the rainbow P6 type wagers. The whales generally don't need to see the odds... they make the odds what they are.

Not true whatsoever.....But, your experience may vary...I wonder why?..

[Poindexter]

There are no absolutes on this topic. The thread on the previous page

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=174477


is pretty obvious evidence that the whales can do a ton of damage on mandatory pay out days, a situation that provides a huge motivation for them to get involved. The question is how much of their energy is put into a random pick 4 or pick 5. My guess is they have better fish to fry crushing the wps exacta and double pools as well as trifectas, where they are dealing with higher probability wagers and more assured profit. Also if you are a player like RR, who focuses on obscure value horses (I am assuming from his posts that is his focus) I do believe you get a lot more value in the pick 4 and pick 5 pools than you do in the other pools. That has just been my perception from what I have seen and I have played a lot of pick 4's and pick 5's in recent years (mostly in harness before 2020-it is much easier to bet horses when you work for yourself than when work for someone else). While the whales may find these horses (at least some), the public won't. Throw in some other value situations like some other random price horse and you can get some nice scores.

While many horseplayers are too undercapitalized to properly attack pick 5's and pick 6's the ones that aren't can still very well complete. The game the whales play and the game the rest of us plays are just different. Sure when it is bombs away we are in trouble, but there is a new pick 5 coming up soon. The thing I really like about pick 5's and pick 6's is you can use creativity to give yourself a bigger edge aside from handicapping. I started playing harness racing again back when Balmoral (maybe the last 2 or 3 years-I miss the racing there) was racing and I played a pretty steady diet of it until 2020 (once Balmoral closed I started playing woodbine & mohawk which is now ust one track). There have been 2 bets that I have done well with, pick 4's and pick 5's(neither track offered pick 6's). Everything else has been minus for me. I don't think that is an accident. I think the pick 4's and pick 5's when played properly are indeed the best bet in horse racing for me.

When I go back to playing (pretty soon I think) they will be the primary focus of my play.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Not true whatsoever.....But, your experience may vary...I wonder why?..

There seems to be this perception that "whales" either have infallibly zeroed in on a race, or else no other player could have logically identified a tasty overlay.

There were three double-digit overlay winners in Gulfstream's early pick 5, according to my estimated probabilities, and the third horse rounding out Oaklawn's opening trifecta, who almost won.

Aren't the whales moving money around in search of overlays, and perhaps creating opportunities for others? I think the fundamental issue is that most players don't have variables that differ from other players, and assume this dominance by the data mining blocs.

[Bustin Stones]

That any one pick is under or over lay is all speculation. And should that horse win or not means nothing because it represents a tiny sample size.
We're trying to stay ahead in the long run with good opinions. And to ignore that large bettors have far more resources at their disposal to form an intelligent opinion is to choose blinders. Whales don't care if they get a pick wrong. As long as they get the other 99 right, they succeed. Those of us on the other end of things need to find that one they got wrong, but it's a needle in a haystack. If you don't enjoy the searching, choose another poison.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

There were three double-digit overlay winners in Gulfstream's early pick 5, according to my estimated probabilities

I'll agree with you, specifically Rave On-$29.40, but those were "win pool" overlays.

Was the Pick 5 an overlay? Based on what, the win prices after the sequence has run? That's my point, no one knows what a pick 5 will pay before and during the sequence, not even the whales...You can't hit it hard when you can't even see it.

Pick 4-5's are the best bet for any decent handicapper/bettor, no matter the size of your bankroll, IMHO.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

That any one pick is under or over lay is all speculation. And should that horse win or not means nothing because it represents a tiny sample size.
We're trying to stay ahead in the long run with good opinions. And to ignore that large bettors have far more resources at their disposal to form an intelligent opinion is to choose blinders. Whales don't care if they get a pick wrong. As long as they get the other 99 right, they succeed. Those of us on the other end of things need to find that one they got wrong, but it's a needle in a haystack. If you don't enjoy the searching, choose another poison.

Of course it's a small sample. The point is that three of them existed at all, on a promising day at Gulfstream, unless the whales went to the beach, or the haystack players don't have variables that whales either aren't even aware of, or end up minimizing in today's race due to generalized trends or patterns.

[MJC922]

I suspect with the avg pick 5 sequence at least two or three of the horses are underlays. That's due to takeout and is unavoidable because every leg is required to cash the ticket. So then I'm thinking you better have some solid overlays in those other legs to come out ahead when playing that kind of game.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Not true whatsoever.....But, your experience may vary...I wonder why?..

My experience "varies" because i seldom play the long horizontals... in part because I understand the advantage whales have. Your assumption that the whales depend on seeing what grandma and grandpa are playing in the win pool is hilarious.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

My experience "varies" because i seldom play the long horizontals... in part because I understand the advantage whales have. Your assumption that the whales depend on seeing what grandma and grandpa are playing in the win pool is hilarious.

You don't have the experience needed to have an educated opinion on this topic...Thanks for playing...

[thaskalos]

I don't think we can definitively say that a particular wager type is best for "everybody". Everyone doesn't have the temperament for the long horizontals. I know I don't.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

You don't have the experience needed to have an educated opinion on this topic...Thanks for playing...

I make it a point to learn from people who do know. Your toys are not as big as their's.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't think we can definitively say that a particular wager type is best for "everybody". Everyone doesn't have the temperament for the long horizontals. I know I don't.

"Best" as in value for what you're up against....

[TopTrotter]

I'm brand new to this forum, though not racing -nor forums...


Being on a few years, I am reminded of the billions of $ spent on the commercially promoted cures for stomach ulcers. For decades all the usual 'science' and knowledge base had the acidic causation nailed down and so there was a plethora of solutions that sort of worked. Then some genius discovered that ulcers are caused by bacteria, NOT what was known by the science. Anti-bacterial remedies became available and more effective.

So even the best science and data gets it wrong at times, and introduces other probabilities. This is as true for the breeding side as for racing. Those factors we now call intuitive may at some point be nailed down to 'scientific' but til then we rely on other means than our data models, which have many flaws.

I do wish though that the data were readily available at low cost (race and breeding) to do some other kinds of possibility thinking to find something like the ulcer solution in this game.