The Modern Bomb

[mountainman]

Yesterday's derby winner not only lightened our pockets, but blew up the way we handicap. Long odds aside, there is nothing random about a winner that peaks and crushes like Mine That Bird did at the most opportune time.
Be it drugs, faulty speed figs, our glaring inability to interpret synthetic-form, or just the near-mystical impact that a red-hot rider can make, there were clearly factors at work yesterday that we don't fully understand.

Mine That Bird strikes me as a longshot winner with far-reaching repercussions. I don't care HOW the animal was transported, or HOW unsophisticated his trainer, this wasn't some maiden from Ruidosa, but instead a THREE-time stakes winner with a graded score on his resume. And none of us saw it coming.

There are two tangible lessons to take from this derby. First off, books and ballyhoo about conquering the new-frontier aside, we have learned little about interpreting form from all-weather surfaces. And second, the Beyer figs can't protect us when the monsters come. We need new, more innovative weapons with which to fight back.

[Tom]

Or we just say to hell with 3yo stakes races and screw the triple crown.
the last two have been ridiculous races. I have no intention of waiting my time on the preakness and I long ago stopped looking at the Belmont as anything worth handicapping. So many supposedly good horses just fail to pick up a foot in theses races. I expect that kind of pathetic perfomrances at minor tracks. If I want crap racing, I want it from tracks that know how to present it ().

Frankly I prefer the races you wrote about in HP Mag recently. Great article, btw, and I will take a 7500 nw1,6 at Pha over anything Belmont of CD has to offer.

So whoever goes or whatever happens at Pim in two weeks, count me out. I'll read about it here. After it's over. The old joke is more true than not. What is the different between a stakes winner and a 1500 claimer? About 2 weeks.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Tom

Frankly I prefer the races you wrote about in HP Mag recently. Great article, btw, and I will take a 7500 nw1,6 at Pha over anything Belmont of CD has to offer.

Thanks Tom. It's probably the best of my articles. They let me pick the topic, so it was right in my wheel-house.

[DeanT]

I like that post Mark.

We have a desire as handicappers to explain things. It's the way we are. But this game (and it is what keeps me coming back) is unexplainable many times. Just look what happened that allowed this horse, in some part, to get across the line first:

1. Chalk was scratched at 9AM
2. Second chalk ripped half his hoof off in the gate
3. Third choice almost fell on his face.
4. Mine That Bird was keyed up and wanted to go. He gets sandwiched at the start and Borel has no choice but to try and settle him instead of contesting the pace, which would have been suicidal - he didnt choose that trip, happenstance chose it for him.
5. A bunch of horses race poorly in the soup.
6. Contested half.
7. A dream trip on the best part of the track.
8. A decent horse with ability taking advantage of the above.

Explainable? Maybe. Predictable? Definitely not.

Great stuff and a great mind game that puts other gambling games to shame? Youbetcha.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by mountainman

We need new, more innovative weapons with which to fight back.

Innovative weapon 1.
The 4 th place finisher in the Sunland Derby has to be considered ahead of winners from the Wood, the SA Derby, The La Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes....

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Innovative weapon 1.
The 4 th place finisher in the Sunland Derby has to be considered ahead of winners from the Wood, the SA Derby, The La Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes....

Two of the preps that you mention were contested on synthetic tracks, and the other is not distinguished in producing derby talent. Your post refutes itself. Do dig the sarcasm though.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Two of the preps that you mention were contested on synthetic tracks, and the other is not distinguished in producing derby talent. Your post refutes itself. Do dig the sarcasm though.

top beyer 81...last 3/8's of his sunland run 40.2...enough said!

[Irish Boy]

It is possible to learn too much from a race.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by fmolf

top beyer 81.....enough said!

So the omnipotent Beyers come out of this unscathed? What's next? 'Silence puny humans!! The all-knowing Beyers work in strange and mysterious ways!!!!!' ? Or how about, 'This is simply the exception that proves the rule'?

[DanG]

As Dean was saying; this gets filed under “outlier data” as the statisticians like to say. This is the worst possible race to draw conclusions from and that applies well beyond the 2009 result.

It always fascinated me how much more research is done on our most random occurrences. Around 6 times a year we run 10f races for 3yo colts in North America and 3 of those are on grass.

This is obviously by far our marquee event; there isn’t even a close second, but in terms of applying lessons from this race to our day in day out gambling…it’s like comparing Mint Juleps and Shirley Temples.

BTW: That is taking nothing away from the winner who obviously was ridden / rank (or directed to be ridden) incorrectly at Sunland. His energy distribution at Woodbine had no resemblance to his two races under this new trainer. I really wonder what their intention was with a clean break and I have little doubt his stretch punch would have been severely altered <2L from the pace like his Sunland efforts.

[NoDayJob]

[Bubba X]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Yesterday's derby winner not only lightened our pockets, but blew up the way we handicap. Long odds aside, there is nothing random about a winner that peaks and crushes like Mine That Bird did at the most opportune time.
Be it drugs, faulty speed figs, our glaring inability to interpret synthetic-form, or just the near-mystical impact that a red-hot rider can make, there were clearly factors at work yesterday that we don't fully understand.

Mine That Bird strikes me as a longshot winner with far-reaching repercussions. I don't care HOW the animal was transported, or HOW unsophisticated his trainer, this wasn't some maiden from Ruidosa, but instead a THREE-time stakes winner with a graded score on his resume. And none of us saw it coming.

There are two tangible lessons to take from this derby. First off, books and ballyhoo about conquering the new-frontier aside, we have learned little about interpreting form from all-weather surfaces. And second, the Beyer figs can't protect us when the monsters come. We need new, more innovative weapons with which to fight back.

Nice post and I also liked your article. What I take away from this race and those of the last few years is a bit different and I'm not sure what new weapons would help.

Not long ago at all, the only relevant preps were the Wood, Blue Grass, SA Derby and Ark Derby. No one successfully went from Gulfstream straight to Churchill. Same for the Louisiana race which gave us this year's favorite despite 7 weeks off and no race as far as 9F. Horses are now prepping very successfully in Tampa, Illinois and New Mexico while the Keeneland and SA horses races are now of far less predictive value.

I suppose if IWR didn't scratch, the batch of horses that all went off at 50-1 would have gone 60-1 but I'm not sure what new weapon can explain how some of those were not 100-1.

The lessons to me are pretty simple:

- You can prep anywhere
- Speed figs are of limited value
- We should expect, rather than be surprised, when the hype horses fail due to trip/distance/track condition/injury.
- It has been, is still and will always be about who gets the distance
- The graded earnings eligibility is valid and every horse belongs.

The big puzzle to me has been the lack of huge, 100-1+ type longshots, especially in years like Bellamy Road and Big Brown. The answer that has come to me is that every horse is indeed worthy of consideration. I'm just slow to figure it out.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by DanG

As Dean was saying; this gets filed under “outlier data” as the statisticians like to say. This is the worst possible race to draw conclusions from and that applies well beyond the 2009 result.

It always fascinated me how much more research is done on our most random occurrences. Around 6 times a year we run 10f races for 3yo colts in North America and 3 of those are on grass.

This is obviously by far our marquee event; there isn’t even a close second, but in terms of applying lessons from this race to our day in day out gambling…it’s like comparing Mint Juleps and Shirley Temples.

BTW: That is taking nothing away from the winner who obviously was ridden / rank (or directed to be ridden) incorrectly at Sunland. His energy distribution at Woodbine had no resemblance to his two races under this new trainer. I really wonder what their intention was with a clean break and I have little doubt his stretch punch would have been severely altered <2L from the pace like his Sunland efforts.

I agree. I think the barn instructions were to go and get a spot close. JMO, of course, but it sure looked like it to me.

It is amazing how differently I handicap the Derby. I always bet on outlier, or 10-1+shot. Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. However, it is a different mindset. 99 out of 100 races this year I will try and find the fastest horse, because on dirt, in sprints, the fastest horse tends to win the race. At the Derby, the fastest horse does not tend to win the race many years. A lot of it is happenstance.

I never learn much from the Derby. I have always been of the opinion that it is a race to take a shot, expect to lose but hope to get some value; and that the all button (esp with $1 min supers) can be your best friend. It is a race I look for a score. This year does nothing to change that mindset for me.

[DanG]

I think that’s it Dean.

This race is so ego oriented and to make the elusive score you have to willing to be wrong…very wrong most of the time.

For a capper its one of 50,000 races a year and to base ones competence / or lack of on this event is nonsense.

But it sure is fun to win and if you run into that fortunate river card…there are few better feelings next to being connected to the winning animal.

[Niko]

Originally Posted by DeanT

I like that post Mark.

We have a desire as handicappers to explain things. It's the way we are. But this game (and it is what keeps me coming back) is unexplainable many times. Just look what happened that allowed this horse, in some part, to get across the line first:

1. Chalk was scratched at 9AM
2. Second chalk ripped half his hoof off in the gate
3. Third choice almost fell on his face.
4. Mine That Bird was keyed up and wanted to go. He gets sandwiched at the start and Borel has no choice but to try and settle him instead of contesting the pace, which would have been suicidal - he didnt choose that trip, happenstance chose it for him.
5. A bunch of horses race poorly in the soup.
6. Contested half.
7. A dream trip on the best part of the track.
8. A decent horse with ability taking advantage of the above.

Explainable? Maybe. Predictable? Definitely not.

Great stuff and a great mind game that puts other gambling games to shame? Youbetcha.

Nice Analysis. At first I was upset with his win (and my loss) but it's great for horse racing and I'm very happy for Borel and the connections-congrats!

In looking at the trips in the Derby it's amazing how much has to go right for a horse to win it a lot of years. This was the strangest handicapping year I can remember for the Derby...late scratches, poly, mud, foreign figures etc.. I still can't believe the margin of the win, though. I saw the early fractions in the mud and knew my 2 and 19 were in trouble. And when I saw Desert Party on the track (after I placed my bet) he didn't look very good with his head down and all.