Lobo/Reflect Time trainer/surface change

[WinterTriangle]

I put Paulo Lobo in my trainer stable in April, when he announced he'd move to NY from CA. Lobo pulls some real stunners and has always been one of my most *potent* longshot trainers, even when he was in CALI. But I think he genuinely appreciates dirt and as a 3rd generation trainer, horses are in his blood.

Today he did it with Reflect Times. (win $45.60)

I carefully scrutinize his horses, so I review Reflect Times' history. 9-3-0-1. John Sheriff's had him running in CA on synth at Delmar, HOL, SA. I looked at his pedigree. French Deputy (sire) and Seeking the Gold (broodmare sire) definitely not synth horses.

I watched him in the Sham and the Robert B. Lewis, he can't seem to rally on synth. Makes sense. The horse isn't a synth horse.

So, this was a race where you look for a horse "doing something different" and try to figure the outcome of that change, good or bad.

Paulo Lobo claims him, takes him out of CA, puts him on dirt, (he seems to always want to do this, what he did with Gayego ) looks like he gives him a race to see what's-what at a mile......now 2nd race on dirt he puts Reflect Times in a little longer---- and he wins.

All the pedigree stats bore this out, dirt horse. Seeking the Gold towered over other horses for dirt wins, and on sire side, French Deputy horse moving to dirt (from turf) towered over others as well.

I won't say if I played him.

Anyway, I really like Lobo.

[tribecaagent]

Andy Serling liked this horse.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

I put Paulo Lobo in my trainer stable in April, when he announced he'd move to NY from CA. Lobo pulls some real stunners and has always been one of my most *potent* longshot trainers, even when he was in CALI. But I think he genuinely appreciates dirt and as a 3rd generation trainer, horses are in his blood.

Today he did it with Reflect Times. (win $45.60)

I carefully scrutinize his horses, so I review Reflect Times' history. 9-3-0-1. John Sheriff's had him running in CA on synth at Delmar, HOL, SA. I looked at his pedigree. French Deputy (sire) and Seeking the Gold (broodmare sire) definitely not synth horses.

I watched him in the Sham and the Robert B. Lewis, he can't seem to rally on synth. Makes sense. The horse isn't a synth horse.

So, this was a race where you look for a horse "doing something different" and try to figure the outcome of that change, good or bad.

Paulo Lobo claims him, takes him out of CA, puts him on dirt, (he seems to always want to do this, what he did with Gayego ) looks like he gives him a race to see what's-what at a mile......now 2nd race on dirt he puts Reflect Times in a little longer---- and he wins.

All the pedigree stats bore this out, dirt horse. Seeking the Gold towered over other horses for dirt wins, and on sire side, French Deputy horse moving to dirt (from turf) towered over others as well.

I won't say if I played him.

Anyway, I really like Lobo.

NICE Redboard. You are getting so good at this game.

[bisket]

i certainly hope you cashed on this angle after putting in the ground work. its nice to see you still running with your breeders cup bank. one thing i always do when the betting account gets full of winnings. cash them in. leaving lots change in the account can lead to laziness in your handicapping. sharp handicapping always leads to winners. as i'm sure you are aware of.

[Fingal]

Looking at the result chart, I see an A. Bisono as the jock. Alex Bisono that couldn't make it in S. Cal & went up to Golden Gate ?

[feelup1963]

IF I RECALLED ALEX BISONO WAS IN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY 90'S.I THINK 93-95?

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by Murph

NICE Redboard. You are getting so good at this game.

In case you missed it, I didn't say I played the horse.

I said I had Paulo Lobo in my stable and gave the reasons I think he's a brilliant horseman.

The post was to give credit to PAULO LOBO for bringing in this, and other horses to dirt, and to win. What a 3rd generation trainer can do, changing up surface on a horse. He has brought in a lot of longshots in his career, and I'm really happy to see him in NY.

[toussaud]

this is a classic class play

reflect times was a very very very good 2YO at del mar on the west coast that came down with an injury, and shipped to the east when lobo moved east.

it's taken him some time to get back in form but the fact that lobo kept running him in AOC racess hould have told you he believed in the horse.

I doubt it's the surfact change, he was a very hot 2YO at del mar on all weather and was 3rd to crown of thorns in the robert lewis on all weather. the horse always had class.

he just fall out of form and is getting back into form.


also he always has been a pace dependant horse.

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by Murph

NICE Redboard. You are getting so good at this game.

REDBOARD!....Probably the worst term ever created!

What difference does it make if the horse was played or not if the tidbit of info is worthwhile? How many players will pay $29. for some expert's book that is a complete Redboard essay? I think plenty.
Why not just file away the nugget for future consideration?

[only11]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

I put Paulo Lobo in my trainer stable in April, when he announced he'd move to NY from CA. Lobo pulls some real stunners and has always been one of my most *potent* longshot trainers, even when he was in CALI. But I think he genuinely appreciates dirt and as a 3rd generation trainer, horses are in his blood.

Today he did it with Reflect Times. (win $45.60)

I carefully scrutinize his horses, so I review Reflect Times' history. 9-3-0-1. John Sheriff's had him running in CA on synth at Delmar, HOL, SA. I looked at his pedigree. French Deputy (sire) and Seeking the Gold (broodmare sire) definitely not synth horses.

I watched him in the Sham and the Robert B. Lewis, he can't seem to rally on synth. Makes sense. The horse isn't a synth horse.

So, this was a race where you look for a horse "doing something different" and try to figure the outcome of that change, good or bad.

Paulo Lobo claims him, takes him out of CA, puts him on dirt, (he seems to always want to do this, what he did with Gayego ) looks like he gives him a race to see what's-what at a mile......now 2nd race on dirt he puts Reflect Times in a little longer---- and he wins.

All the pedigree stats bore this out, dirt horse. Seeking the Gold towered over other horses for dirt wins, and on sire side, French Deputy horse moving to dirt (from turf) towered over others as well.

I won't say if I played him.

Anyway, I really like Lobo.

This horse is going to repeat next time.

[rrbauer]

Originally Posted by feelup1963

IF I RECALLED ALEX BISONO WAS IN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY 90'S.I THINK 93-95?

Is he that old? I thought he started in the Bay area about 5-6 years ago.

[Bochall]

Lobo pulled off some nice wins at Bel this spring but i dont recall any wins at Sar. Two were Brazilian breds. His horses ran well with Castellano up...only one win with him but a few good in the money finishes. I keep a NY trainer file(a la Dave Litfin) and that one was his biggest payoff.

[Rise Over Run]

Originally Posted by feelup1963

IF I RECALLED ALEX BISONO WAS IN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY 90'S.I THINK 93-95?

It was CEASAR Bisono in NY in the early 90's.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

REDBOARD!....Probably the worst term ever created!

What difference does it make if the horse was played or not if the tidbit of info is worthwhile? How many players will pay $29. for some expert's book that is a complete Redboard essay? I think plenty.
Why not just file away the nugget for future consideration?

I can put it on the list, but I'll never see that one comming. Until, like most, after the big play is in the winners circle celebrating. Show us a great trainer move before the race, then we might call it handicapping. Otherwise, the post is better placed in general racing discussion. IMHO - of course.

PM, you know how useful this information is after the race in question.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

I put Paulo Lobo in my trainer stable in April, when he announced he'd move to NY from CA. Lobo pulls some real stunners and has always been one of my most *potent* longshot trainers, even when he was in CALI. But I think he genuinely appreciates dirt and as a 3rd generation trainer, horses are in his blood.

Today he did it with Reflect Times. (win $45.60)

I carefully scrutinize his horses, so I review Reflect Times' history. 9-3-0-1. John Sheriff's had him running in CA on synth at Delmar, HOL, SA. I looked at his pedigree. French Deputy (sire) and Seeking the Gold (broodmare sire) definitely not synth horses.

I watched him in the Sham and the Robert B. Lewis, he can't seem to rally on synth. Makes sense. The horse isn't a synth horse.

So, this was a race where you look for a horse "doing something different" and try to figure the outcome of that change, good or bad.

Paulo Lobo claims him, takes him out of CA, puts him on dirt, (he seems to always want to do this, what he did with Gayego ) looks like he gives him a race to see what's-what at a mile......now 2nd race on dirt he puts Reflect Times in a little longer---- and he wins.

All the pedigree stats bore this out, dirt horse. Seeking the Gold towered over other horses for dirt wins, and on sire side, French Deputy horse moving to dirt (from turf) towered over others as well.

I won't say if I played him.

Anyway, I really like Lobo.

An excellent post with a superb horse analysis; you should be commended on both your rationale and commonsense approach for selecting a contender. With that kind of patience and analytics you should do well in this game