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05-29-2008, 09:54 AM
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#1
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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First Quarter GDP revised UPWARD, goons on life support....
Well, I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but here goes nuttin'.....
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...first quarter real GDP was revised upward to a 0.9% annual rate of growth from the previously reported 0.6% rate of growth.
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The downward revision to inventories leaves this category poised to add to GDP in the second quarter. It also completely takes away the argument that the first quarter was up solely due to inventories, as inventories now add only 0.2% to the total change (leaving final sales at +0.7%)
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Some recession we're having here....
http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/I...10HeadlineHits
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05-29-2008, 09:58 AM
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#2
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: United States of America
Posts: 5,871
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Does this data come from the same folks that told us gas prices went down last month ?
Just curious.
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05-29-2008, 10:36 AM
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#3
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Sunny Daytona Beach
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Daytona Beach
Posts: 2,302
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05-29-2008, 10:50 AM
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#4
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Sunny Daytona Beach
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Daytona Beach
Posts: 2,302
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Well Bossman
Like he said where do the numbers come from, not our misleading government I hope, but of course they do. And yes I don't trust those numbers any more than I trusted the numbers Eron either, or the Saving and Loans and there are plenty more to add to mis-numbered numbers, but go ahead and believe, that's ok.
By the way, in my heart I truly wish that we were not in this big mess we're in, God man I love this country and what it stands for and everyone in it, and those who sacrificed for us to have this country the way it is, they all have my thanks. But this country is in big trouble, and be blind if you wish to be, that is your right, but go to your local truckstop or yur local manufacturer's, go in and ask them how things are, ask these big trucking co.'s how there are doing, go to a wal-mart distribution center ask how slow everything has gotten, or a target/meijer/kroger any major chain's D/C and you will see 1st hand how things are, don't take my word for it, go see for yourself that way you can tell them about your numbers and let them know everything will be alright, can you do that, no of course you won't, you may find out I'm right.
Enough Quacking and Table pounding for now.
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05-29-2008, 10:56 AM
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#5
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intus habes, quem poscis
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Brooklyn NY
Posts: 9,776
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And I hate to sound like a broken record because I know PA means well, but that is still well below the rate needed to sustain job growth and below the rate of population growth, meaning on average an American is worse off than he was before. When we get back around 3% let me know and I'll start agreeing that things are ok.
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05-29-2008, 11:59 AM
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#6
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Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 1,718
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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Of course, this doesn't mean we're not in a recession now. We'll know in three months-- if we're not-- to six months at which point we will probably be out of it. 
__________________
London calling, yeah, I was there, too
An' you know what they said? Well, some of it was true!
(Strummer/Jones)
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05-29-2008, 03:38 PM
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#7
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OTM Al
....and I'll start agreeing that things are ok.
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Agreeing with who? Not me. I never said things are OK. I simply contend we are not in a recession.
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05-29-2008, 04:32 PM
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#8
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intus habes, quem poscis
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Brooklyn NY
Posts: 9,776
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The final arbiter is the NBER. They will have the data by about September or October to say what was what. They use a lot more data than just GDP by the way. So I guess we can stay tuned til then.
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05-29-2008, 06:20 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,002
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Agreeing with who? Not me. I never said things are OK. I simply contend we are not in a recession.
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Let the numbers shown a negative trend and you better stand back. Those figures will be used here in caps and just to justify a depression and all things bad.
__________________
The impossible just takes a little longer!
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05-30-2008, 12:44 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 46,884
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OTM Al
And I hate to sound like a broken record because I know PA means well, but that is still well below the rate needed to sustain job growth and below the rate of population growth, meaning on average an American is worse off than he was before. When we get back around 3% let me know and I'll start agreeing that things are ok.
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I don't seem to recall PA saying that "things are ok". I think his point all along was a lot more narrow, i.e we're not in a "recession" per the traditional definition of the term. Now, if you want to infer from this that everything is okay -- then so be it. Be my guest. But having said this, my wife's sales are still ahead of last year's -- granted not at the hefty rate of the last year's compared to '06's, but still ahead at a decent clip. And these sales really depend upon buyers having available discretionary funds!
Boxcar
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Consistent profits can only be made on the basis of analysis that is far from obvious to the majority. - anonymous guru
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05-30-2008, 11:20 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: New York
Posts: 2,117
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Auto loans, personal loans, mortgage loans and other segments of instalment debt are still contracting. Auto loans are especially vulnerable with defaults recently hitting a 10-year high of 3.4% in March. And more Americans are dropping the keys to their homes to their local lenders as housing values continue to plunge below the cost of their mortgages.
Consumer deflation has arrived at the absolute worst time as savings rate are barely positive. Soaring energy and food prices, declining home values, surging auto delinquency loans and gradually rising unemployment depict a growing liquidity crisis now underway for the consumer and most, if not all, instalment debt structured to finance domestic consumption. It’s not a pretty picture.
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We have been saddled with a government that pays lip service to the nation’s freedom principles while working overtime to shred the Constitution.
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05-31-2008, 01:55 AM
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#12
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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Nobody says it can't get worse. Of course, tossing the ol' RECESSION word around as if it's a cute stuffed animal might be enough to push us over the edge and into a real recession. Wouldn't that be cool?
SEVEN PLUS month of non-stop recession talk, and still, no recession. Haven't there been ACTUAL recessions that have lasted less than seven months? That's probably an exaggeration, but you get my point....
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05-31-2008, 12:15 PM
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#13
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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The way to prevent a recession is to stop worrying about it and quit watching TVnews, who have a dog in this hunt - they need sensational stories and a recession is just what THEY need. BS. They should be reporting the news, not trying to make it. Coonfidence in our economy instead of CNN is a no brainer.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-31-2008, 01:17 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 4,156
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I won't post the obvious rebuttal to Pa since it won't change anyones mind that posts here and that's fine and if it needs posting then it will be a flyover anyway.
But, in general two points...
I do not think we are in "big trouble" that we can't overcome
I do think recessions are a GOOD thing if needed.
I think we are in the beginning of a long shallow R with the possibility of a double dipper , with the double being a short shallow and I don't give a damn what any MSM outlet says about this stuff.
Some of us get paid to "worry" about it , so I guess I will continue to think and try to do my best.
You disagree PA?
Last edited by ddog; 05-31-2008 at 01:23 PM.
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05-31-2008, 01:26 PM
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#15
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
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The CORN Poan answer to it all
From old Merle (I wish that I didn't drink so much) Haggard
Are we rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell?
With no kind of chance for the flag or the liberty bell?
I wish a Ford or a Chevy would still last ten years like they should.
Is the best of the free life behind us now and are the good times really over for good?
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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