BC Distaff

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

All this talk of Songbird being too slow on speed figures...has anyone checked the pace figures?
She holds a DECIDED early advantage over everyone in this field except Beholder, and I think the latter would be committing suicide if she duels Songbird.
Beholder has lost the last two times she got the early lead...she may duel but I think it will cost them both.

Yes, there are a few that are a few lengths faster than Songbird on final time, but what do you think happens if a classy gal like her gets loose again???

I take nothing away from Beholder, a Hall Of Fame true blue race mare if there ever was one, but this race unfolded exactly as I thought it would. To completely dismiss Songbird because she's a few points slower on speed figs, while TOTALLY ignoring her huge pace advantage is silly, and I've read a lot of copy from respected folks in this industry who did just that those of you who did just got very lucky
Yep - she came up a nose short, but she was far from the "toss" that many many folks deemed her to be.

[jahura2]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I take nothing away from Beholder, a Hall Of Fame true blue race mare if there ever was one, but this race unfolded exactly as I thought it would. To completely dismiss Songbird because she's a few points slower on speed figs, while TOTALLY ignoring her huge pace advantage is silly, and I've read a lot of copy from respected folks in this industry who did just that those of you who did just got very lucky
Yep - she came up a nose short, but she was far from the "toss" that many many folks deemed her to be.

I will admit to being way wrong on dismissing Songbird as a toss. tremendous heart as she refused to lose. I cashed a P3 on Beholder but feel very fortunate. Would really have liked to have seen a truer outcome if Stellar Wind doesn't miss her break.

[AltonKelsey]

Look if someone wants to embarrass themselves calling Songbird a toss then that's their privilege.

I'm not even sure 1-1 was the wrong price. The early betting at 3/5 was never going to hold and was mostly souvenir tickets . Was much higher in all the other pools.

Super race.

Anyone have an opinion on the rail , and how it was playing?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I take nothing away from Beholder, a Hall Of Fame true blue race mare if there ever was one, but this race unfolded exactly as I thought it would. To completely dismiss Songbird because she's a few points slower on speed figs, while TOTALLY ignoring her huge pace advantage is silly, and I've read a lot of copy from respected folks in this industry who did just that those of you who did just got very lucky
Yep - she came up a nose short, but she was far from the "toss" that many many folks deemed her to be.

These are decisions we have to make as bettors. You are taking this way too personally POT. As fans we love Songbird and wow did she wow us! But as a player having both Dortmund and Songbird lose was a player's dream come true. Isn't always like that on BC Friday. Today was a good day. Songbird ran her hell of a race and she lost. We got paid for it. That is what this game is all about.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Omg. You're really hell bent on dissing Songbird it seems. Maybe it's because you took such a big stand against her, calling her a total toss.

You can't just move horses like blocks based on feet ran. There are too many other variables to consider. Both ran a great race and Beholder wasn't so wide for it to have been significant. Beholder was in the garden spot that her trainer wanted her in, because he understands they're not blocks. For all intents and purposes, both had perfect trips and they were separated by a nose.

You haven't really read my posts have you? I have nothing against Songbird. I even started a thread on her about how moved I was that she was named in honor of the late Eva Cassidy. I even said that she was better than the colts.

I never said she was a toss. What I did say that it was wrong to think that she would win easily. Sorry, but a narrow loss is not an easy win.

If you don't think that having to have run 5 lengths more is not a significant disadvantage you are sadly mistaken. The numbers are what they are.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by nearco

According to trakus, she ran 40ft more than Songbird.
At the standard 8ft/length, that's 5 lengths.

Thanks for the info. Do you know what the ground loss was for Stellar Wind? She was very wide on the far turn.
How do I get Trakus data for Santa Anita?

[burnsy]

I play the odds in most of these races. Both horses are great. If the board is going to give me $8.60 on one, that's the one I'm betting. Great race, but if the competition seems to be evenly matched, I bet the longer one almost every time. Lost the first 3.......then the are paying that on this horse and that exacta. Love it.

Harvey Pack rule 6. Hardly a man is now alive who paid a mortgage at 2-5.

[classhandicapper]

105 Beyer for Songbird and Beholder

Songbird with a lifetime top. Just got beat by an older champion.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

You haven't really read my posts have you? I have nothing against Songbird. I even started a thread on her about how moved I was that she was named in honor of the late Eva Cassidy. I even said that she was better than the colts.

I never said she was a toss. What I did say that it was wrong to think that she would win easily. Sorry, but a narrow loss is not an easy win.

If you don't think that having to have run 5 lengths more is not a significant disadvantage you are sadly mistaken. The numbers are what they are.

That's the trip they wanted with Beholder. When she saved ground on the lead she kept getting beat.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Anyone have an opinion on the rail , and how it was playing?

I need to watch the races again, but this was my impression watching the card.

The rail looked fine, but if I had my choice I'd rather be outside and a bit off the pace as long as I wasn't losing a ton of ground. It's possible the track became a little more tiring as the day went on, but impossible for me to know. Most people would call this track honest because anything that was going on was pretty subtle.

[nearco]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Thanks for the info. Do you know what the ground loss was for Stellar Wind? She was very wide on the far turn.
How do I get Trakus data for Santa Anita?

http://www.santaanita.com/horse-raci...active/trakus/

Use the pull down menu and pick 'finish' and you get the race cumulative totals.

[Fleur-de-lis]

Any one have the will pays?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

That's the trip they wanted with Beholder. When she saved ground on the lead she kept getting beat.

That's one of those subtle trip issues.

If you are a literal ground loss handicapper, all you care about is the paths. But it seems like a lot of horses prefer running outside as long as they don't lose a lot of ground. I think you have to watch the races develop on a specific day to see if there are any advantages.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

You haven't really read my posts have you? I have nothing against Songbird. I even started a thread on her about how moved I was that she was named in honor of the late Eva Cassidy. I even said that she was better than the colts.

I never said she was a toss. What I did say that it was wrong to think that she would win easily. Sorry, but a narrow loss is not an easy win.

If you don't think that having to have run 5 lengths more is not a significant disadvantage you are sadly mistaken. The numbers are what they are.

Being moved by how she was named isn't exactly a comment on her racing talent.

The numbers don't mean what you think they do. Every time a trainer chooses to have their horse not be the pacesetter, they're choosing to take the wider trip. If that means a loss of ground that is a huge disadvantage, then they wouldnt choose it, would they? They know that ground loss isn't always important. It can be a disadvantage, or it can be an advantage. For Beholder, it was to her advantage. It was exactly where her trainer wanted her to be to be able to run her best.

[Secondbest]

I was wrong about Songbird. She may have got nosed but this is one tough cookie