Are harness bettors idiots?

[Stillriledup]

Seems like theyre far worse than Thoroughbred bettors. No offense, i'm sure that if you are one of the ones who are holds your own, i'm not talking about you, but i watch some of these races from YR and M1 and other tracks and it just seems like there are so many horses who are bet off the board who can't pace at all.

Couple examples come to mind.

Tonight at M1 in the 5th race, the 2 and 2A entry was 3-5 and both horses were total stinkers. The 2A got a dream trip right in behind the battling leaders, appeared to have horse turning for home and just came unglued and looked like she was worth about 25 cents.

Tonight at Yonkers in the 11th, Rockin Amadeus was 1-5 from post 1, he was handed the race, nobody tried to beat him, he was lone speed, unpressured and he stopped on a dime, barely hanging on for 3rd.



Why are these horses getting so heavily bet when they're no good?

I don't put in immense amounts of work on harness racing so i don't know who's good and who is not, but geez, who's betting these slugs down to 1-5 and 3-5?

I don't see too many 1-5s in thoro racing that get perfect trips and stop on dimes.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Tonight at M1 in the 5th race, the 2 and 2A entry was 3-5 and both horses were total stinkers. The 2A got a dream trip right in behind the battling leaders, appeared to have horse turning for home and just came unglued and looked like she was worth about 25 cents.

Do you ever analyse the race fractions before commenting?

The fractions were 28-58.1-1:27:2-154.4. Pierce put the rest of the field on a treadmill when he got away with murderously slow fractions on the front end. There was nothing Sears could do about it but watch. He did well to finish 2nd by only 1/2 a length. I consider an even pace slow. This was a full 2 seconds slower than average.

Don't count out Designed To Be yet.

[Stillriledup]

My mistake, it was Race 4 not Race 5.

[Ray2000]

This is just MHO on the heavy bet 'Odds-on' favorites in Harness.

There are more and more board-watching, auto-betting programs hitting the standardbred market, probably from frustrated T-Bred players/programmers.
Due to the relatively small pool sizes, the last second queued up flood of wagers is causing many of these Overbets/Underlays.

here's 2

The Schumaker Northfield robot
http://robschumaker.com/publication... ss%20Races.pdf

The Parnham
http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/r.../hru040112.pdf

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Seems like theyre far worse than Thoroughbred bettors. No offense, i'm sure that if you are one of the ones who are holds your own, i'm not talking about you, but i watch some of these races from YR and M1 and other tracks and it just seems like there are so many horses who are bet off the board who can't pace at all.

Couple examples come to mind.

Tonight at M1 in the 5th race, the 2 and 2A entry was 3-5 and both horses were total stinkers. The 2A got a dream trip right in behind the battling leaders, appeared to have horse turning for home and just came unglued and looked like she was worth about 25 cents.

Tonight at Yonkers in the 11th, Rockin Amadeus was 1-5 from post 1, he was handed the race, nobody tried to beat him, he was lone speed, unpressured and he stopped on a dime, barely hanging on for 3rd.



Why are these horses getting so heavily bet when they're no good?

I don't put in immense amounts of work on harness racing so i don't know who's good and who is not, but geez, who's betting these slugs down to 1-5 and 3-5?

I don't see too many 1-5s in thoro racing that get perfect trips and stop on dimes.

It was a ****ed up race......if it was the race where the 7 won the whole field was coming back for the final next week.....think that purse was 40k the final prob goes for 450k

**** harness racing I'm done with it

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

My mistake, it was Race 4 not Race 5.

The race fractions in the 4th race were 27.1-27.3-27.4-26.4.

The difference between the 3rd qtr and the 4th qtr was a full 1 second. Drop the ball who had the lead going into the stretch had the tactical advantage over the field.

Don't know about The Meadowlands but at Mohawk favorites win at the rate of 36.9%. So the public is wrong just about 63% of the time.

The notion that the favorite is the best horse in the race is erroneous too.

[mrroyboy]

I had the winner in the 4th but bet the entry in the fifth. So win one, lose one. But I agree. There seems to be some weird stuff going on. I'm not saying anyone is cheating. Don't know why.

[Poindexter]

Isn't this a good thing? The only thing I like more than trying to beat an over bet 3/5 favorite is an over bet 2/5 shot.......You motivated me.After looking at Saturdays Past Perfomances, Meadowlands here I come.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

This is just MHO on the heavy bet 'Odds-on' favorites in Harness.

There are more and more board-watching, auto-betting programs hitting the standardbred market, probably from frustrated T-Bred players/programmers.
Due to the relatively small pool sizes, the last second queued up flood of wagers is causing many of these Overbets/Underlays.

here's 2

The Schumaker Northfield robot
http://robschumaker.com/publication... ss%20Races.pdf

The Parnham
http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/r.../hru040112.pdf

Anyone intent on having a positive ROI/breaking even/coming close to breaking even while having lots of fun would do well to learn all he or she can about automated wagering apps. Regardless of what anyone thinks of them, regardless of the (almost universal) complaints that they are "immoral, illegal, or fattening" the bottom line is that they are rapidly assuming dominance of the mutuel pools. That is NOT a trend that will go away.

Despite the many current complaints, today's racing will be looked back on with fondness in the not-too-distant future as "the good old days, when making money was easy." Bettors have a lot in common with armies. Both need to rapidly adjust to changes in the external environment, and to rapidly adopt tactics that neutralize the enemies advantage(s). Or perish.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I have been in many contests over the years. Some were flat racing and others harness racing. Not until last year did I venture into the world of greyhound contests. Let me tell you, pound for pound the best handicappers in contest week in and week out are the puppy players.

Most contest I have entered have been 300 on up to a high of 700 players. This contest gives you credit for win and place money based on a two dollar play but limits the win price to $32 and place to $12 so the most one could receive is $44 on the longshot. No matter the week, when the dust cleared the field would be roughly 50/50 with half of the field with a positive ROI and the other half with a negative. To win these contests one needs to get about 2.50 ROI or there a bouts. Would be a lot easier to get that ROI without a limit of payouts.

Let us say I was humbled by the competition. The best I ever did in about 30 contests was 6th out of 500 contestants. Most times I was around 100th or a little lower.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Isn't this a good thing? The only thing I like more than trying to beat an over bet 3/5 favorite is an over bet 2/5 shot.......You motivated me.After looking at Saturdays Past Perfomances, Meadowlands here I come.

yes, its a good thing, go get em!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by RaceTrackDaddy

I have been in many contests over the years. Some were flat racing and others harness racing. Not until last year did I venture into the world of greyhound contests. Let me tell you, pound for pound the best handicappers in contest week in and week out are the puppy players.

Most contest I have entered have been 300 on up to a high of 700 players. This contest gives you credit for win and place money based on a two dollar play but limits the win price to $32 and place to $12 so the most one could receive is $44 on the longshot. No matter the week, when the dust cleared the field would be roughly 50/50 with half of the field with a positive ROI and the other half with a negative. To win these contests one needs to get about 2.50 ROI or there a bouts. Would be a lot easier to get that ROI without a limit of payouts.

Let us say I was humbled by the competition. The best I ever did in about 30 contests was 6th out of 500 contestants. Most times I was around 100th or a little lower.

What do you use for greyhounds?

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Originally Posted by traynor

What do you use for greyhounds?

My ADW is Betamerica and the contest (free) is run at http://www.bigjackpotbetting.com/contesthome.jsp. For pp's (free) at http://www.trackinfo.com/trakdocs/

If you were asking how to handicap greyhounds, I would use trip handicapping combined with speed handicapping. The most profitable angles is genetics. I have come to follow litters from strong dams.

Hope that answers your question..

[traynor]

Originally Posted by RaceTrackDaddy

My ADW is Betamerica and the contest (free) is run at http://www.bigjackpotbetting.com/contesthome.jsp. For pp's (free) at http://www.trackinfo.com/trakdocs/

If you were asking how to handicap greyhounds, I would use trip handicapping combined with speed handicapping. The most profitable angles is genetics. I have come to follow litters from strong dams.

Hope that answers your question..

Interesting. I used to use a (considerably expanded) version of Homberger's DRIS that I wrote in VB. Speed, class, consistency, early speed, break style, on and on. Difficult to code, easy to use. Oddly, (although I did it full time for several years, with decent return) I have never even considered genetics. Just about everything else, but not that. One can learn something new every day. Thanks!

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Seems like theyre far worse than Thoroughbred bettors. No offense, i'm sure that if you are one of the ones who are holds your own, i'm not talking about you, but i watch some of these races from YR and M1 and other tracks and it just seems like there are so many horses who are bet off the board who can't pace at all.

Couple examples come to mind.

Tonight at M1 in the 5th race, the 2 and 2A entry was 3-5 and both horses were total stinkers. The 2A got a dream trip right in behind the battling leaders, appeared to have horse turning for home and just came unglued and looked like she was worth about 25 cents.

Tonight at Yonkers in the 11th, Rockin Amadeus was 1-5 from post 1, he was handed the race, nobody tried to beat him, he was lone speed, unpressured and he stopped on a dime, barely hanging on for 3rd.



Why are these horses getting so heavily bet when they're no good?

I don't put in immense amounts of work on harness racing so i don't know who's good and who is not, but geez, who's betting these slugs down to 1-5 and 3-5?

I don't see too many 1-5s in thoro racing that get perfect trips and stop on dimes.

Apparently there are enough people with money betting these horses down who have no conception of value.