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Old 11-20-2017, 04:30 PM   #1
Bennie
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early derby futures

First pool opens this week and was looking for a few opinions on the field selected. I know there are many who refuse to wager on these pools especially one this early, but looking for those who enjoy the challenge so please no negative nelly's need apply.
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Old 11-20-2017, 04:37 PM   #2
Fred Mertz
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I may put out a few bucks on our local trainer's horses, Dale Romans, and stick them under my fridge magnet so I don't lose them.

I've avoided the Sire Future Wager thus far. I'll be at CD on Thanksgiving for an over-priced meal. But hey, I don't have family here.

Folks call it a sucker bet; I cashed once when I took the field years ago for a minor score. I look at it as having some skin in the game, and it keeps my attention focused on the future.

A few 20 dollar bills may net you hundreds...or not.

Last edited by Fred Mertz; 11-20-2017 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 11-20-2017, 04:56 PM   #3
Bennie
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good luck with Romans horses as I believe he has yet to win a Derby despite being one of the top trainers on the Kentucky circuit. I am initially looking at Montauk and not eliminating Bolt d'oro yet as he had a less than ideal trip in the breeders cup race. I haven't seen any past performance sheets yet but try to look for e/p and p type runners with at least 16 dosage points and some closing ability. I can say that I am still playing on Giacomo futures monies as far as the futures wagers go. Not so much the rest of the time.
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Old 11-20-2017, 11:47 PM   #4
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https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ager-nov-23-26
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Old 11-20-2017, 11:56 PM   #5
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# Wagering Interest Morning
Line Odds
1 Avery Island 30-1
2 Bolt d’Oro 10-1
3 Copper Bullet 30-1
4 Dak Attack 30-1
5 Engage 20-1
6 Enticed 30-1
7 Firenze Fire 20-1
8 Free Drop Billy 20-1
9 Givemeaminit 50-1
10 Good Magic 8-1
11 Gotta Go 30-1
12 Lone Sailor 50-1
13 Mask 30-1
14 McKinzie 20-1
15 Mendelssohn 30-1
16 Montauk 20-1
17 Principe Guilherme 20-1
18 Quip 30-1
19 Solomini 15-1
20 Sporting Chance 20-1
21 Talent Scout 30-1
22 Tiz Mischief 50-1
23 Untamed Domain 20-1
24 Mutuel Field
(All Others) 7-5

Future Wager Pool 1 (SIRES)
# Wagering Interest Morning
Line Odds
1 Bernardini 20-1
2 Bodemeister 20-1
3 Candy Ride (ARG) 20-1
4 Curlin 8-1
5 Distorted Humor 20-1
6 Ghostzapper 20-1
7 Giant’s Causeway 30-1
8 Into Mischief 20-1
9 Malibu Moon 30-1
10 Medaglia d’Oro 12-1
11 More Than Ready 20-1
12 Overanalyze 30-1
13 Pioneerof the Nile 20-1
14 Quality Road 20-1
15 Scat Daddy 20-1
16 Speightstown 20-1
17 Street Sense 15-1
18 Tapit 10-1
19 Tiznow 20-1
20 Uncle Mo 20-1
21 Union Rags 30-1
22 Violence 30-1
23 War Front 15-1
24 Mutuel Field
(All Others) 4-1

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 11-21-2017 at 12:00 AM.
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Old 11-21-2017, 01:02 PM   #6
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Old 11-21-2017, 05:22 PM   #7
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Past Performances Pool 1

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...2017_FINAL.pdf
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Old 11-21-2017, 05:48 PM   #8
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Thanks for the past performances Vigors. Just printed them out and will do some "studying" later tonight or in the morning.
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Old 11-22-2017, 09:37 AM   #9
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I like the exactas here. Avery island, Bolt d'oro, Montauk, and the field.

Will be interesting to watch the sire pool as Medaglia d'Oro gives you Bolt d'Oro, Montauk, and Enticed...



Good info here: www.DerbyPowerRankings.com
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Old 11-22-2017, 11:30 PM   #10
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Scouting report

https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017...y-future-wager
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Old 11-24-2017, 11:40 AM   #11
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The sire bet seems more interesting to me than the individual horse play
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Old 11-24-2017, 11:50 AM   #12
Fred Mertz
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Got my Future Wager in Yesterday

#4, 8, 22 (Dak Attack, Free Drop Billy, Tiz Mischief)

$20, 20, 10

Dale Romans runners. I know I have two losers, but I'll keep an eye on them in the coming weeks and months.

I'll have a thousand dollars of fun for fifty. That's the way I look at it.

Got the parimutuel clerk to put them on one ticket and it's under one of my fridge magnets. I won't likely play anything else until Derby Day.

Last edited by Fred Mertz; 11-24-2017 at 11:53 AM.
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Old 11-24-2017, 12:12 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bennie View Post
First pool opens this week and was looking for a few opinions on the field selected. I know there are many who refuse to wager on these pools especially one this early, but looking for those who enjoy the challenge so please no negative nelly's need apply.
I only play the first future pool, unless my horse gets knocked out. Then I might play a horse in the second pool. After that, it's harder to find value, unless you think a contender tossed in a clunker with an excuse. But since that can translate to longer odds on Derby Day, you don't have to take on the risk of a future bet.

This year the horse I'll select (err, jinx) is Enticed.

Based on breeding and the PPs, I also think the could be part of the picture next May.
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Old 11-24-2017, 09:13 PM   #14
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Montauk is getting hammered.

What about Prince Guirhelme and Talent Scout. Any odds worth wagering upon?
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Old 11-25-2017, 12:41 AM   #15
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https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager

Pedigree Search Tool
http://www.pedigreequery.com/photos/wonder+beach

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 11-25-2017 at 12:44 AM.
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