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Old 01-17-2018, 01:07 PM   #91
Redboard
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think Saratoga (and the Derby/BC) are more attractive because the largest sophisticated betters are not raising their own bets enough to offset the huge influx of tourist and casual money. However, that does mean it will remain that way indefinitely.

Field size correlates to price, but that doesn't necessarily mean there are more overlays. My data suggests it's a little easier to find value in larger fields because hopeless longshots still tend to be overbet a little. The more of them the merrier. But I'd still way rather compete with the folks that bet 5 mule races at Fernadale.
Don't want to sound like a geezer but I think things have changed in the past 10 years at the SPA - whether it's computers or just smarter bettors. Seems like 12-1s used to be 20-1s, and 5-1s used to be 8-1s. Then there's the issue of the super trainers that stir the pot and add to the confusion.

Where has all the stupid money gone?
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Old 01-17-2018, 01:10 PM   #92
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The title of this thread thread implies whales are unable to get money into Oaklawn's pools.

Here's a link to an article that appeared at The Paulick Report back in 2013...

I, Robot: The Future of Horse Race Wagering?:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...race-wagering/

Quote:
"Flesh and Blood"
Not every track is comfortable allowing CRW teams into their pools. Oaklawn Park has shunned computer-assisted bettors for years, arguing that they win often enough to discourage other gamblers.
If I recall correctly, at the time the article was written, Oaklawn was blocking its signal (or refusing to accept wagers) from two of the better known rebate houses: RGS and Elite.

However, Oaklawn does give its signal out to (and accepts wagers from) many other ADWs that have rebate programs. Twinspires, Xpressbet, and Premier Turf Club come to mind.

That means if I am a whale who makes batch wagers using CRW and I have an account at (say) Elite and I wanted to get money into Oaklawn's pools, even though it might be a pain in the ass or mean I have to jump through hoops:

I could open an account (in my name or the name of a beard) at a rebate house that does have a contract with Oaklawn --

And instead of CRW -- I could create my own custom wagering interface and use text file upload.

By the way, if you create your own custom wagering interface, text file upload is probably the closest thing to CRW -- and it is available to EVERYONE -- even the $2.00 bettor.

Playing by text file upload, I might have to hit the submit button a few seconds earlier than I would if I were playing by CRW. But other than that the net effect would be about the same.

I would be a whale getting decent rebates and betting all the money I want into Oaklawn's pools.

I submit to you the idea that if you think Oaklawn's pools are somehow protected -- think again.


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Old 01-17-2018, 01:14 PM   #93
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....So our owners are spending about $2.5 billion per year, and getting back in purses about $1.1 billion, leaving them with a net loss of $1.4 billion per year.
Seems like a real rational financial move.
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Old 01-17-2018, 01:16 PM   #94
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I'm frugal. I'd 100% be my own agent if I were a rider, or any kind of paid athlete for that matter
If you were a popular jock. How would you determine which horse to ride?
when our horse was ready to win we would just call Mark Guidry's agent. and he would tell us yay or nay whether Mark was available for the ride.

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Old 01-17-2018, 01:17 PM   #95
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Seems like a real rational financial move.
Yet people spend millions upon millions to get a good horse in the barn.

Allan
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Old 01-17-2018, 01:30 PM   #96
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Seems like a real rational financial move.
It's not. The excitement and thrill is much of what they're paying for. And if they want to be anywhere close to the black, they have to buy decent enough peds and physicals to get big chunks back as breeding prospects.

Ultimately we have to be glad that these are businesses where the losses pass through to the owners' personal taxes.
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Old 01-17-2018, 01:50 PM   #97
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It's not. The excitement and thrill is much of what they're paying for. And if they want to be anywhere close to the black, they have to buy decent enough peds and physicals to get big chunks back as breeding prospects.

Ultimately we have to be glad that these are businesses where the losses pass through to the owners' personal taxes.
Ultimately you have to meet the requirements that you are, in fact, in a business and not a hobby. With the stats you presented it would be hard to justify going into the horse ownership business.
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:00 PM   #98
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Ultimately you have to meet the requirements that you are, in fact, in a business and not a hobby. With the stats you presented it would be hard to justify going into the horse ownership business.
The horse-owners get their "thrills"...and their operating losses are tax-deductible. The horseplayers, on the other hand, pay a lot more for the "thrills" that they seek...because their gambling losses go unrecognized by the IRS. Consequently...it is even HARDER to justify becoming a serious horseplayer.
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:06 PM   #99
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Ultimately you have to meet the requirements that you are, in fact, in a business and not a hobby. With the stats you presented it would be hard to justify going into the horse ownership business.
That requires selling of horses every X years. It doesn't require that you make a profit, only that you try to make a profit. Since some people do, at least in individual years, it has to be seen as viable. Again, though, it's from selling, not from purses that one would normally show a profit.
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:08 PM   #100
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The horse-owners get their "thrills"...and their operating losses are tax-deductible. The horseplayers, on the other hand, pay a lot more for the "thrills" that they seek...because their gambling losses go unrecognized by the IRS. Consequently...it is even HARDER to justify becoming a serious horseplayer.
I may wrong, but I thought hobby expenses were only tax deductible up to hobby income, much like gambling. The only difference may be the ability to carry forward losses.
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:09 PM   #101
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The title of this thread thread implies whales are unable to get money into Oaklawn's pools.

Here's a link to an article that appeared at The Paulick Report back in 2013...

I, Robot: The Future of Horse Race Wagering?:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...race-wagering/


If I recall correctly, at the time the article was written, Oaklawn was blocking its signal (or refusing to accept wagers) from two of the better known rebate houses: RGS and Elite.

However, Oaklawn does give its signal out to (and accepts wagers from) many other ADWs that have rebate programs. Twinspires, Xpressbet, and Premier Turf Club come to mind.

That means if I am a whale who makes batch wagers using CRW and I have an account at (say) Elite and I wanted to get money into Oaklawn's pools, even though it might be a pain in the ass or mean I have to jump through hoops:

I could open an account (in my name or the name of a beard) at a rebate house that does have a contract with Oaklawn --

And instead of CRW -- I could create my own custom wagering interface and use text file upload.

By the way, if you create your own custom wagering interface, text file upload is probably the closest thing to CRW -- and it is available to EVERYONE -- even the $2.00 bettor.

Playing by text file upload, I might have to hit the submit button a few seconds earlier than I would if I were playing by CRW. But other than that the net effect would be about the same.

I would be a whale getting decent rebates and betting all the money I want into Oaklawn's pools.

I submit to you the idea that if you think Oaklawn's pools are somehow protected -- think again.


-jp

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Jeff, I think we need keep knowledge and facts and reason out of this thread.
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:17 PM   #102
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Jeff, I think we need keep knowledge and facts and reason out of this thread.
I find it confusing. Do we know that OP does indeed sell their signal to any rebate shop?
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:22 PM   #103
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I find it confusing. Do we know that OP does indeed sell their signal to any rebate shop?
You're kidding, right?


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Old 01-17-2018, 02:40 PM   #104
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You're kidding, right?


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No? I'd assumed that most/all sell to rebate shops, but if OP has been brought forward as one who is known as not selling to two of the bigger rebate shops, why shouldn't I think it's possible that they don't sell to any rebate shop?
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Old 01-17-2018, 02:55 PM   #105
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IDK. Maybe they've led you to think they don't sell to rebate shops?

Ok. But if you really didn't know...

I mentioned Twinspires, Xpressbet, and Premier in my previous post.

Each has an in house rebate program...

Oaklawn sells their signal to them (as well as others.)

The truth is Oaklawn does sell their signal to rebate shops. (Just not all rebate shops.)

It's like I said in my previous post.

Provided he/she is willing to jump through a few hoops:

The whale who wants rebates while betting into Oaklawn's pools is able to do so.



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Last edited by Jeff P; 01-17-2018 at 03:02 PM.
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