 |
|
10-02-2015, 08:17 AM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
|
RUNHAPPY at Keeneland
Runhappy runs today in the GR3 Phoenix in the 8th at Keeneland. For those of you who didn't see it, Runhappy won the King's Bishop at Saratoga in 1:20.2, and ran it in spectacular fashion earning a Beyer of 111, a Bris of 113, and a Timeform of 131 (same number that American Pharaoh ran that day).
Runhappy looked awesome and ran almost the identical race that Seattle Slew did when he broke the track record for 7 furlongs at Hialeah in his 3yo debut.
However, I thought the fractions and time were suspiciously fast, considering that Saratoga is not a fast surface. Some people have said that the track was heavily watered after the Gr1 Ballerina stakes produced slow fractions of :23 and :46 in the race before the King's Bishop.
Is Runhappy as fast a sprinter as Seattle Slew, or was his pace and final time numbers influenced by the track surface?
We'll know more in a few hours.
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 09:03 AM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,764
|
i remember the Hialeah race and have to say that SEATTLE SLEW was more impressive to me.
interesting that you quote 3 different types of numbers. i think that Timeform is the most accurate out of those.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 09:10 AM
|
#3
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
|
The fact that Runhappy shipped in off a win over a speed favoring minor track, Ellis Park, and ran this strong of a race over the Saratoga strip was surprising to me. Not that he won, but the way he won. :22.2, :44.2, 1:08, 1:20.2. In his prior start at Ellis he was drifting out and shortening stride. In the Kings Bishop he kicked away powerfully.
If the Saratoga strip wasn't heavily watered prior to the race, as some have said, and the fractions/time are legit, then this horse should be a lock in the Breeders Cup sprint. But, I'm skeptical.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 09:14 AM
|
#4
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
|
The first few major horses out of the race have kind of disappointed, but I think you can also make a good argument that the race solid. It was a good field and some pretty good horses got beaten up.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 09:35 AM
|
#5
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 239
|
Pandy--Runhappy looks like the horse to beat. I think I'll hook him up with #8 Alsvid and #9 Fast Anna, both 15-1 ML--and keep my fingers crossed.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 10:06 AM
|
#6
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
|
I think he faces a better and deeper field today than he faced in the King's Bishop. There are also more horses in here that will contend with him on the front end in my opinion.
Lets also not forget he is facing the defending BC Sprint champion today coming in off a monster win.  Work All Week is 13 for 18 lifetime and 17 out of 18 in the Exacta.
I'm looking for a wicked hot pace in here with something coming from a bit out of it to come out on top.  Barbados,  Holy Boss, and  Alsvid have my attention in this one.
Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 10-02-2015 at 10:08 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 10:26 AM
|
#7
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,950
|
what if it rains?
calls for showers in Lexington. Slop Racing all weekend boys. Any 4 horse field slop experts here?
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 10:43 AM
|
#8
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
I think he faces a better and deeper field today than he faced in the King's Bishop. There are also more horses in here that will contend with him on the front end in my opinion.
Lets also not forget he is facing the defending BC Sprint champion today coming in off a monster win. Work All Week is 13 for 18 lifetime and 17 out of 18 in the Exacta.
I'm looking for a wicked hot pace in here with something coming from a bit out of it to come out on top. Barbados, Holy Boss, and Alsvid have my attention in this one. |
It's certainly doesn't look like an easy spot. That horse, Work All Week is a remarkable animal. Holy Boss and Alsvid are both solid sprinters. The James Bond horse, Waco, has improved sharply in his two starts as a 4 year old. I think his speed figures may be a bit too low. My Diamond System ranks him higher.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 11:42 AM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
|
http://tessera13.intellicast.com/201.../314/layer.png
Radar for Northern Kentucky.....Yikes...
Just checked.....
Main : Muddy
Turf: Soft..Rail 10 feet
There are a surprisingly low number of scratches....
Hey NYRA management...Ya gettin this?.....Maybe you guys should think about fining trainers for scratching their horses just because the guy driving the harrow tractor farts.
Last edited by thespaah; 10-02-2015 at 11:48 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 02:22 PM
|
#10
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
|
I'd be concerned with taking a short price from post 1 on this track with no LASIx and a trainer nobody has heard of and a non elite rider. Tricky call. Loads of talent and can win, but at what price?
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 02:26 PM
|
#11
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
|
The track is a mess right now.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 02:46 PM
|
#12
|
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
|
For kicks, here is my RS/POS worksheet, using BRIS E1 and LP numbers.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 04:52 PM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
|
Even though the track is sloppy/sealed, Keeneland is favoring closers all day so far and the rail seems dull. Tough spot for Runhappy but a good test for him. I boxed 4-8-11 exactas.
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 04:58 PM
|
#14
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,053
|
 Runhappy. is this the same horse that ran at Saratoga? Looks like it lost some weight
|
|
|
|
|
10-02-2015, 05:00 PM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
|
Rain/sloppy..
1 min to post. Runhappy has one third the win pool.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
