Saratoga Plays

[PhantomOnTour]

July 22 - Race 8
The Mercante stalked a fast pace last time while wide, put in a nice move, led, & battled hard in a good overall effort. Prior to that he closed very nicely at Aqu.
Hoping he works out a trip and is there late. ML odds are nice at 10-1

$2 ex: 1-2-3-5 w 8
$8 win: 8

($16 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

July 22 - Race 8
The Mercante stalked a fast pace last time while wide, put in a nice move, led, & battled hard in a good overall effort. Prior to that he closed very nicely at Aqu.
Hoping he works out a trip and is there late. ML odds are nice at 10-1

$2 ex: 1-2-3-5 w 8
$8 win: 8

($16 bet)

good luck

Stalked a fast pace last time with Jose up and falls back to last behind a tepid pace with Alvarado up yesterday
Came a runnin' but way too late. Ran 3rd at a very generous 20-1 as the Brown entry was hammered down to 1-2.

Wagered: $139.00
Returned: $260.90
Total: + $121.90
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July 23 - Race 8
The Tass is my guy for Saez/Antonacci.
Sports a pretty good record routing on the turf with lasix/not vs GrStks foes of 3 for her last 6 and a good overall turf record (but is 5:0-0-0 at Sar).
Big jock upgrade to Saez, who is subbing for the injured Jose Ortiz, and I expect him to have her near the pace, just behind the sure to gun early #2.
Gets the jump on the 8-10-11 and hopefully hangs on.

$3 ex: 10-11 w 4
$14 win: 4
($20 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Stalked a fast pace last time with Jose up and falls back to last behind a tepid pace with Alvarado up yesterday
Came a runnin' but way too late. Ran 3rd at a very generous 20-1 as the Brown entry was hammered down to 1-2.

Wagered: $139.00
Returned: $260.90
Total: + $121.90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 23 - Race 8
The Tass is my guy for Saez/Antonacci.
Sports a pretty good record routing on the turf with lasix/not vs GrStks foes of 3 for her last 6 and a good overall turf record (but is 5:0-0-0 at Sar).
Big jock upgrade to Saez, who is subbing for the injured Jose Ortiz, and I expect him to have her near the pace, just behind the sure to gun early #2.
Gets the jump on the 8-10-11 and hopefully hangs on.

$3 ex: 10-11 w 4
$14 win: 4
($20 bet)

good luck

Going to amend the above play to include the lone E #2 who may get an easy lead & walk away with it

$2 ex: 2-4
$3 ex: 10-11 w 4
$12 win: 4
($20 bet)

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Stalked a fast pace last time with Jose up and falls back to last behind a tepid pace with Alvarado up yesterday
Came a runnin' but way too late. Ran 3rd at a very generous 20-1 as the Brown entry was hammered down to 1-2.

Wagered: $139.00
Returned: $260.90
Total: + $121.90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 23 - Race 8
The Tass is my guy for Saez/Antonacci.
Sports a pretty good record routing on the turf with lasix/not vs GrStks foes of 3 for her last 6 and a good overall turf record (but is 5:0-0-0 at Sar).
Big jock upgrade to Saez, who is subbing for the injured Jose Ortiz, and I expect him to have her near the pace, just behind the sure to gun early #2.
Gets the jump on the 8-10-11 and hopefully hangs on.

$3 ex: 10-11 w 4
$14 win: 4
($20 bet)

good luck

Made the lead in the lane as I had hoped but not much of a finisher. Got run down and finished 3rd.

Wagered: $159.00
Returned: $260.90
Total: + $101.90

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Made the lead in the lane as I had hoped but not much of a finisher. Got run down and finished 3rd.

Wagered: $159.00
Returned: $260.90
Total: + $101.90

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July 26 - Race 9
Not my strongest feeling, but I'll give it a go with the Such Sounds who, despite her pedigree, I think will like the 1m3/8 distance.
Grinder/one paced type was moving to the lead up the rail last time at this distance when she got stopped cold. That race has produced a few next out winners.
Previous race he showed a sustained grinding run to win at Kee.
I'm never right about Leparoux, but hoping he gets a good stalking trip in a rather paceless race and plugs away for an exacta finish. He does do well when riding for Bauer, who had a great Sar meet last year.
6-1 ML may actually go up by post time.

$2 ex: 1-3-4-10 w 6
$10 win: 6
($18 bet)

***also like the Weaver runner Outlaw Kid in R7 but he's in with a very tough group. Could get a good outside stalking trip and be there late.

Good Luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 26 - Race 9
Not my strongest feeling, but I'll give it a go with the Such Sounds who, despite her pedigree, I think will like the 1m3/8 distance.
Grinder/one paced type was moving to the lead up the rail last time at this distance when she got stopped cold. That race has produced a few next out winners.
Previous race he showed a sustained grinding run to win at Kee.
I'm never right about Leparoux, but hoping he gets a good stalking trip in a rather paceless race and plugs away for an exacta finish. He does do well when riding for Bauer, who had a great Sar meet last year.
6-1 ML may actually go up by post time.

$2 ex: 1-3-4-10 w 6
$10 win: 6
($18 bet)

***also like the Weaver runner Outlaw Kid in R7 but he's in with a very tough group. Could get a good outside stalking trip and be there late.

Good Luck

Lovely pick...midpack early and increased her deficit every call after that, ran 2nd to last. The Bauer of 2023 in no way resembles the Bauer of 2022.

Wagered: $179.00
Returned: $260.90
Toatl: + $81.90

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 27 - have a few plays today

Race 6
This may be the first time I've ever played a horse coming off a 29 Beyer fig.
The #2 Dreamery really put in a nice stretch run and big gallop out in her debut. Bullet work since so maybe she's involved earlier this time & gets a piece at a good price ?? I'll take a small shot (a very small shot).

$1 ex: 1-3-5-6-7 w 2
$4 win: 2
($9 bet)

Race 4
The #7 Reigning Chick has won the last three times going route to sprint & dropping in class. Should run them over late. Hope the 6-1 ML holds.

$8 win: 7
($8 bet)

Race 10
The #8 Famous Gent should get a good pace set up cutting back to 5.5f and can be there late. Two back he was 3w on a day when the inside was best and last time I think they employed the wrong tactics going 7f. He was up on the pace and was a bit empty late. A note of concern is that he switched to his wrong lead late in that race...maybe he was tired going further than he usually goes. Pace will be honest and he should be in the mix at the end. Juicy ML of 12-1

$2 ex: 1-3-9 w 8
$10 win: 8
($16 bet)

Total Bet today: $33.00

Nice card today - good luck

[Nitro]

SAR -Thurs 7/27 Tote Analysis

Race #10-----3-8 w/ 1-9-7 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

SAR -Thurs 7/27 Tote Analysis

Race #10-----3-8 w/ 1-9-7 @ 3 mins to post

Results:

Race #10 = 1-7-2-5 = Nothing in that one – both keys failed to get a piece of the money

POS	#	Horse	        Win	Place	Show
1st:	1	Sosua Summer	$9.30	$4.40	$3.20
2nd:	7	Souper Quest		$4.60	$4.00
3rd:	2	Richy			       $6.90
4th:	5	Mackillop			
•	. 

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Lovely pick...midpack early and increased her deficit every call after that, ran 2nd to last. The Bauer of 2023 in no way resembles the Bauer of 2022.

Wagered: $179.00
Returned: $260.90
Toatl: + $81.90

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 27 - have a few plays today

Race 6
This may be the first time I've ever played a horse coming off a 29 Beyer fig.
The #2 Dreamery really put in a nice stretch run and big gallop out in her debut. Bullet work since so maybe she's involved earlier this time & gets a piece at a good price ?? I'll take a small shot (a very small shot).

$1 ex: 1-3-5-6-7 w 2
$4 win: 2
($9 bet)

Race 4
The #7 Reigning Chick has won the last three times going route to sprint & dropping in class. Should run them over late. Hope the 6-1 ML holds.

$8 win: 7 paid $32.40
($8 bet)

Race 10
The #8 Famous Gent should get a good pace set up cutting back to 5.5f and can be there late. Two back he was 3w on a day when the inside was best and last time I think they employed the wrong tactics going 7f. He was up on the pace and was a bit empty late. A note of concern is that he switched to his wrong lead late in that race...maybe he was tired going further than he usually goes. Pace will be honest and he should be in the mix at the end. Juicy ML of 12-1

$2 ex: 1-3-9 w 8
$10 win: 8
($16 bet)

Total Bet today: $33.00

Nice card today - good luck

Two duds and one stud resulted in a loss of 60 cents

Wagered: $212.00
Returned: $293.30
Total: + $81.30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 28 - Race 6
The #1 Swore has been on my watch list and I think he graduates today. Had early trouble and then traveled wide on the far turn at Del before really kicking in down the lane. Last time he rallied nicely through a fast closing quarter and galloped out strongly. Motion won with a MidAtlantic import yesterday with Miss San Gabriel so I'm guessing he knows they fit here. Hoping Gaffalione has him closer to the pace today as this heat lacks any real speed.
Tough race loaded with some nice pedigrees (see #9) - get him home Tyler!

$2 ex: 3-9-10 w 1
$12 win: 1
($20 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Two duds and one stud resulted in a loss of 60 cents

Wagered: $212.00
Returned: $293.30
Total: + $81.30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 28 - Race 6
The #1 Swore has been on my watch list and I think he graduates today. Had early trouble and then traveled wide on the far turn at Del before really kicking in down the lane. Last time he rallied nicely through a fast closing quarter and galloped out strongly. Motion won with a MidAtlantic import yesterday with Miss San Gabriel so I'm guessing he knows they fit here. Hoping Gaffalione has him closer to the pace today as this heat lacks any real speed.
Tough race loaded with some nice pedigrees (see #9) - get him home Tyler!

$2 ex: 3-9-10 w 1
$12 win: 1
($20 bet)

good luck

I'll update the betting totals later, but may I whine for a minute please?
Yes, as far as the above play is concerned, I did better with the exacta than the win bet would have paid (the #1 got bet to 2-1 favoritism)...BUTS, in real life (where it really counts) I needed the #1 badly. Singled on my Pick 5 ticket with a big spread (5x4) in the last two legs. As it stands now, the exacta basically got me a refund plus a few bucks on the cost of my P5 ticket. I'm hoping for a longshot in one of the next two legs to make me feel better LOL

Maybe the #9 was going better and would have nosed the #1 out, but it seemed to me that the #1 was going to win if the #2 hadn't come out and slammed into him.

it's a tough game

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I'll update the betting totals later, but may I whine for a minute please?
Yes, as far as the above play is concerned, I did better with the exacta than the win bet would have paid (the #1 got bet to 2-1 favoritism)...BUTS, in real life (where it really counts) I needed the #1 badly. Singled on my Pick 5 ticket with a big spread (5x4) in the last two legs. As it stands now, the exacta basically got me a refund plus a few bucks on the cost of my P5 ticket. I'm hoping for a longshot in one of the next two legs to make me feel better LOL

Maybe the #9 was going better and would have nosed the #1 out, but it seemed to me that the #1 was going to win if the #2 hadn't come out and slammed into him.

it's a tough game

I wondered if it had cost you a single on horizontal wagers, because it cost me. So frustrating. At first glance, I thought the was best, but the was loaded as well behind horses. Heads up ride by Castellano to get up.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Two duds and one stud resulted in a loss of 60 cents

Wagered: $212.00
Returned: $293.30
Total: + $81.30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 28 - Race 6
The #1 Swore has been on my watch list and I think he graduates today. Had early trouble and then traveled wide on the far turn at Del before really kicking in down the lane. Last time he rallied nicely through a fast closing quarter and galloped out strongly. Motion won with a MidAtlantic import yesterday with Miss San Gabriel so I'm guessing he knows they fit here. Hoping Gaffalione has him closer to the pace today as this heat lacks any real speed.
Tough race loaded with some nice pedigrees (see #9) - get him home Tyler!

$2 ex: 3-9-10 w 1
$12 win: 1
($20 bet)

good luck

$2 ex 9-1 pays $64.50

Wagered: $232.00
Returned: $357.80
Toatl: + $125.80

very challenging card tomorrow with some great races

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

$2 ex 9-1 pays $64.50

Wagered: $232.00
Returned: $357.80
Toatl: + $125.80

very challenging card tomorrow with some great races

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Best card of the meeting today - quality top to bottom with some full & challenging fields. Hope you did your homework.

July 29 - Race 12
#9 Fizzy is on my watch list after her debut, which looked like a 'get fit' outing for the stretch to 1m3/8 today. That race produced one return winner yesterday and No Show Sammy Jo runs earlier on the card today (and i think she has a chance to repeat).
She checked slightly early and then was ridden like she was just out for the exercise, not truly beginning to run until about the 1/8 pole, when she kicked in and then galloped out like a beast (hopefully with today in mind).
Switch to Prat today and he will likely have her in a stalking position in a race that should produce an honest pace.
Think the ML of 5-1 will hold (despite a few respected handicappers picking her) or even go up.

$2 ex: 6-7 (#6 is 0-11 but was wide early on a very fast pace and held well)
$3 ex: 3-7 w 9
$12 win: 9
($20 bet)

good luck today

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Best card of the meeting today - quality top to bottom with some full & challenging fields. Hope you did your homework.

July 29 - Race 12
#9 Fizzy is on my watch list after her debut, which looked like a 'get fit' outing for the stretch to 1m3/8 today. That race produced one return winner yesterday and No Show Sammy Jo runs earlier on the card today (and i think she has a chance to repeat).
She checked slightly early and then was ridden like she was just out for the exercise, not truly beginning to run until about the 1/8 pole, when she kicked in and then galloped out like a beast (hopefully with today in mind).
Switch to Prat today and he will likely have her in a stalking position in a race that should produce an honest pace.
Think the ML of 5-1 will hold (despite a few respected handicappers picking her) or even go up.

$2 ex: 6-7 (#6 is 0-11 but was wide early on a very fast pace and held well)
$3 ex: 3-7 w 9
$12 win: 9
($20 bet)

good luck today

As we feared, the rains have come and washed the rest of the card off the turf, so this bet is a no go.

I'll make a minor play on #4 Saudi Crown in the Jim Dandy, R10 at odds of 7-2 or better.

R10:
$10 win: 4 (min odds 7-2)

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

As we feared, the rains have come and washed the rest of the card off the turf, so this bet is a no go.

I'll make a minor play on #4 Saudi Crown in the Jim Dandy, R10 at odds of 7-2 or better.

R10:
$10 win: 4 (min odds 7-2)

As fate would have it, Saudi Crown went off at exactly 7-2.
I won't comment on the race itself.
Have I ever mentioned that this is a tough game?

Wagered: $242.00
Returned: $357.80
Total: + $115.80
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 30 - Race 7
Really like the #9 Easter here, despite two speed runners scratching out.
This guy has a very strong late kick and has performed well on less than firm turf, which we will have today.
He got off to a very slow start last out, came 3w4w on the far turn vs a tepid pace and finished up very very nicely (last 1/2m in under 47 secs and his last 1/8 under 11 secs) to win going away.
Still ample speed in the 6-11-12 to set him up today and I expect him to come charging home as he usually does.
Prat gone to ride for Brown, but Tyler can get it done. Figure he and Motion are due to get even with Brown for the tough defeat of Swore the other day. Things always even out in this game, don't they?


$3 ex: 2-9
$2 ex: 4-11 w 9
$1 ex: 5-9
$14 win: 9
($22 bet)

good luck