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Old 10-17-2017, 08:50 AM   #1
Teach
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Belmont: Wednesday, October 18

Race One:

TIZ SUPER, a 3 year-old Super Saver-bred bay filly, got the charter’s first call in her last race, an MSW sprint at Parx about a month ago. That race, at least for the first three panels, was run in quarter-horse fashion (that first panel stopped the teletimer at :21.4). Well, this filly, after five unsuccessful MSW maiden-breaking trips, now takes a precipitous class-drop to a 20k MC (suspicious?). That fact alone catches my attention. Yet, in addition, this filly’s trainer, Tony Dutrow, the Hagerstown, MD native and the son of the well-known Maryland trainer, Dick Dutrow, is adding blinkers; something Dutrow does extremely well with. I might add that Dutrow is having an excellent Belmont meet, albeit with a limited number of entrants (13 6-3-2). I’m quite certain that the up-and-coming bug jockey, Luis Reyes (remember when he booted home Perplexed up at “The Spa” at 115-1; the tote only goes to 99-1) should have this filly out and going when the gates open. It’ll be up to Reyes to then ration out this filly’s speed. A speed duel would certainly compromise any chance this filly had of breaking her maiden. In this filly’s most recent morning-work, over two weeks ago, she “bulleted” four panels in a quick :47.4, breezing from the gate. Others: , ,

Race Two:

BURN CONTROL ships up from “The Free State” (Maryland got that nickname when it abolished slavery within its borders in its 1864 Constitution) after finishing last in an OC at Laurel in mid-September. That was this bay mare’s first start for her current trainer, David Jacobson. Jacobson, by the way, does very well with horses making their second start off a claim. He also does well with second start off a layoff. Frankly, this Bernstein-bred looks, at least on paper, as better suited for the grass; yet, she has a much better record on the dirt. I should cite that this Storm Cat-bred 6 year-old has faced better throughout her racing career. She has two wins in three starts at the 6 and ½ panels distance. In fact, a little less than one year ago, this mare was ambitiously entered in Aqueduct’s Grade III Go For Wand (she finished last in that one, 18-lengths off the winner). Yet, against this field, at this level… Well, I for one believe she has a solid chance of gracing the winner’s circle. The ever-improving Dylan Davis is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Three:

MILAYA, a Dave Cannizzo trainee, gets me tepid nod in 12.5k claiming route. This Eskendereya-bred, 5 year-old mare won her last at Belmont two weeks ago against slightly better (The mare is now stretching out here by one and a-half furlongs off her last wire-to-wire win; yet she should be able to handle the added distance). In the process, this Giant’s Causeway-bred moved up the class ladder by winning out her lifetime conditions. I should cite that in the past this Unbridled’s Song-bred has faced much better; that includes two non-graded stakes, one at Delaware Park; the other at Saratoga. I should also mention that in each of those races, she failed to hit the tote. Yet, against this lower-level claiming company, I believe she has a strong chance of getting her picture taken. The aforementioned Cannizzo (He’s from Auburn, NY, west of Syracuse) does very well with claim repeaters; yet it also should be noted that his sprint-to-route numbers are low. Nonetheless… In the irons, “El Dominicano,” Joel Rosario, reprises the ride. Others: 1, 2, 8.

Race Four:

I’ve landed on LEMONDROP LOLLIPOP in this 40k MC turf route. In her last, in this company, at a slightly shorter one mile distance, this Lemon Drop Kid-bred 5 year-old mare finished a fast-closing 2nd as an 18-1 shot (I’d be surprised if you got anywhere near those odds, today). The mare’s trainer, David Donk (frankly, he’s having a very unlike-David Donk Belmont meet) must be respected for his record when entering horses in turf races. I should add that Donk does reasonably well with horses entered in maiden-claimers. The “caliente como un petardo,” Manny Franco -- he had two winners on Sunday’s card – is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Five:

In this allowance, 2 year-olds state-bred turf sprint, I’m picking the Patricia Generazio entrant, SARATOGA TREASURE. This bred-for-the-turf 2 year-old bay-filly broke her maiden at first asking up at “The Spa” in late-August. In today’s allowance company, this Galileo-bred stretches out a half-panel off her winning effort over a month and one-half ago. I believe that the added half-panel off her last win only enhances this filly’s chances of garnering her second-straight win. The New Jersey-based Jim Ryerson trains this Treasure Beach-bred. Jose Lezcano, “Lez(cano) on the Ces(ped),” is this Sky Mesa-bred’s pilot. Others: , ,

Race Six:

ROCKIN JOE is my pick in this 7-panels, state-bred MSW. This 2 year-old Paynter-bred colt took MSW state-bred company into mid-stretch before fading to 2nd in a turf race at Belmont about one month ago. This Awesome Again-bred filly now cuts back one panel off her last race. I believe that enhances her chances of gracing the winner’s circle. “The Louisiana Kid,” the reputed “king of Philadelphia,” Kendrick “Zydeco” Carmouche, reprises the ride for trainer Dom Schettino. Schettino does very well with horses who have been racing: sprint-route-sprints, albeit with a limited sampling. Oh, a recent 4-panels :48.3 work, breezing, bolsters confidence. Others: AE, ,

Race Seven:

In this one mile and one-sixteenth state-bred allowance, n1X, turf route, I’m picking: LA MONEDA (Show me the currency). This Freud-bred 4 year-old bay filly won her first race, her second pari-mutuel start, at Belmont about three weeks ago at a similar turf-route distance. This Storm Cat-bred, previously conditioned by Brendan Walsh, now resides in a Tom Morley barn. It should be noted that this Jade Palace-bred now moves up to face winners. The meet’s second-leading rider, Javier Castellano, reprises the ride. I should also cite that this filly turned in a recent 4-panels :48.3, breezing, morning-work. Others: , ,

Race Eight:

In this 7-panels state-bred sprint, I’m giving my tepid nod to the Here Comes Ben-bred bay gelding who, when it comes to these state-bred sprints, has had, quite candidly, a chronic case of “second-itis”. Well, I’m talking about a gelding that I believe will be a medium-longshot: BENEVOLENCE. This Street Cry-bred bay gelding did finish up the track in his last at Belmont about one month ago. Yet it was a race in which this 4 year-old was caught 5-wide in the stretch. A smoother, less troubled trip would put this gelding in the thick of things. Eric Cancel – he showed promise as an apprentice, yet has, quite frankly, failed to demonstrate that early promise over the last several months – is in the irons for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. McLaughlin has done very well with horses entered both in allowance races and sprints. Others: , ,

Race Nine:

In the finale, an MSW state-bred turf-route, I’m picking: FIVEINTHE MORNING. This Morning Line-bred 2 year-old filly is stretching out over two panels off her last two 6-panels turf sprints. I believe the added distance may very well do the trick. This Tiznow-bred was closing in her last at Belmont about one month ago, despite the fact that she lunged at the start of that most recent race. I believe that the added couple of furlongs will give this filly both the time and real estate to overcome any possible gate issues. This Unbridled Cyclone-bred (the dam had 6 winners and 3 turf winners from 8 starters) has the turf lineage to “get” the distance. Irad Ortiz, Jr., the meet’s leading rider, reprises the ride for trainer Jorge Abreu. Others: AE, , ,
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Old 10-17-2017, 10:13 AM   #2
FakeNameChanged
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Nice analysis Teach. Has a Mark Twain as a handicapper feel to it.
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