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Old 02-10-2019, 09:11 AM   #1
Immortal6
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Let's cap a couple of races...FG 6 and OP 8

The 6th at Fairgrounds caught my eye as it is a mile and 9/16 affair with a full field. But if an odd distance. Would like to hear others thoughts on a marathon turf event like this.

The 8th at oaklawn ran at a mile on dirt sees 9 entries shipping in from all over the place.

I'll be back with my take on the races later after lunch. GL all.
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Old 02-10-2019, 10:03 AM   #2
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The 6th at Fairgrounds caught my eye as it is a mile and 9/16 affair with a full field. But if an odd distance. Would like to hear others thoughts on a marathon turf event like this.
Did you look at the PP's? How many Jumpers? lmk
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Old 02-10-2019, 10:29 AM   #3
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easy peasy

4-6-10-11
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Old 02-10-2019, 11:46 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6 View Post
The 6th at Fairgrounds
too tough for me...

random chronological thoughts...

- Good barn, claimed for 17.5 1yr/ago, apparent issues, found a niche as a closer with some recency, exits a series of slow paces, hoping today to get more pace or have distance equalize

- Odds aren't good, obvious, logical

- interestingly took more $$ than the #8 in their jan/3 matchup, recent work, wants to close and like the #2, also hopes for more pace, somewhat interesting if Broberg's is a much shorter price

- gut feeling is uneasy about this one, but you have to respect the trainer and 2nd off the layoff. Could simply be starting 2019 with this one and looking for an easy spot.


?


Good luck. I'll need some perceived value to throw a couple bucks at this one...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6 View Post

The 8th at oaklawn

Some nice ones in here... High North and Colonel's Dark Temper ring a bell, but I like the pace figs on the long shot Limitation 15/1 as far as any kind of fancy selection

GL to all
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-10-2019 at 11:55 AM.
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Old 02-10-2019, 11:59 AM   #5
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I understand the Fairgrounds 6th isn't an appetizing race to handicap. More than anything I'm curious how others approach marathon turf events like this. Do you look primarily at breeding? Do you favor horses with good late pace numbers or those that can sit on the front end?

The two that stuck out most to me are the and

looks bred to run all day and has shown some closing ability. Think the stretch out helps him.

is likely to be the post time favorite. Hard to bet in a race like this.

interests me a little. Ran 3 times on turf with two of them being decent races. Seems to me he's ran against classier turf horses than most of these in here.
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Old 02-10-2019, 12:41 PM   #6
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Would check it out but I don't have access to the live feeds of either track nor the replays from Fairgrounds. 2 tracks I just dont bother with.
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Old 02-10-2019, 12:44 PM   #7
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I was looking at FG R6 last night and thought I'd probably talk myself into a play on Plug Catcher if he's as big a price as his 20-1 M/L suggests. He does have some experience and some good races in the past going extremely far (by contemporary standards). He has some really mediocre recent form, but he is making his third start off of a little break and drops again while also getting a trip over a course he has fared well it over his career. Not one you are going to single in the pick six or anything, but I want to find a way to play him if even as a key if he's a huge price here.
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Old 02-10-2019, 01:29 PM   #8
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Oaklawn Park ALLOWANCE

Purse $80,000. (Includes $52,000 – ESG Purse Fund). For Four Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won $15,000 Three Times Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Not Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Since August 10, 2018. Weight, 122 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden Or Claiming Since December 10, 2018 Allowed 3 Lbs. Such A Race Since November 10, 2018 Allowed 5 Lbs. One Mile.

ML 15-1
Limation R. Vazquez 117 Lbs S. Asmussen L
Alternation - Lime Lady | Limehouse
2nd off losing to MG Warrior last out who is in form. Beat Lone Sailor and High North in the Super Derby last year.

ML 10-1 Malibu Max J. Loveberry 117 Lbs M. Robertson L
Malibu Moon - Mindy Sue | Pleasantly Perfect
Long layoff, wish he had a prep and would would love this one. Has won at OP.

ML 8-1 Adulator D. Cohen 117 Lbs R. Diodoro L
Flatter - Need | Strong Hope
Ran some good races to close out the year at Laurel. Has a 100 Beyer at the distance. Cohen riding at 21%; some things to like

ML 6-1 Colonelsdarktemper J. Court 117 Lbs W. Fires L
Colonel John - Sweet Temper | Stormy Atlantic
WVA derby hero in 2017 lost to Wynn Time last out at 6F-Wynn Time an excellent sprinter. Hits the brakes on the second turn?

ML 15-1 Heavy Roller D. Cabrera 122 Lbs J. Sharp L
Malibu Moon - Yara | Put It Back
2nd off a layoff, fired a 90 Beyer @FG on a good track last out. Seems outclassed, but may have the right running style sitting off the pace.

ML 5-2 C Z Rocket R. Santana, Jr. 117 Lbs A. Stall, Jr. L
City Zip - Successful Sarah | Successful Appeal
Big Beyers in the past, 446 wet#. Ran within 3 lengths of City of Light in the Forego.

ML 5-1 Exclamation Point J. Bravo 117 Lbs B. Cox L
Concord Point - Sambuca Classica | Cat Thief
Undefeated Brad Cox entry, layoff, 405 wet track#

ML 9-2 High North F. De La Cruz 117 Lbs B. Cox L
Midnight Lute - Spacy Tracy | Awesome Again
Cox entries usually get bet. Always liked this one. Easily handled by the in the Super Derby and that one is 15-1 on the ML

ML 4-1 Shotgun Kowboy R. Eramia 117 Lbs C. Trout L
Kodiak Kowboy - Shotgun Jane | Siphon*Brz
$1.3 million earner, good run in the slop 3 back. Currently raining per DRF

Tough call here, big wet track number CZ Rockett tough to leave off tickets. High North and Malibu Max to complete the trifecta

Last edited by Afleet; 02-10-2019 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:27 PM   #9
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8th at OP

I went

Last time out, I thought Limation may be best at a mile or shorter. Seems like this could be a good spot at a mile. Also, his big race in the super derby was on an off track and today will be as such in Hot Springs.

High North will be tough to beat. About the only knock against a bet here is that Cox is not winning so far at OP -- he's hitting the board like craz
CZ Rocket has faced monsters. . . if he romped here it would not be a big surprise.

I'll bet 8-1-6 on top in a tri and will use the same in my p4.

This is a super tough race--- I think all of them but the 2 have a legit chance to win.
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:39 PM   #10
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OP 8

could take them a long way on the front end if he runs back to his best form. His last 3 races however have not been very good.

layoff should help him here. Showing works at OP since the middle of December. Don't see him winning against this bunch but he should run well enough to hit the tri.

looks good enough to chase the pace and hold on for a piece.

his record at the distance says it all. Will look to contend until he hits the quarter pole.

working well at OP, second off layoff for Sharp. 1 win in 5 tries here with no other itm finishes. Looks to do his best running late? May get up for 2nd.

ran some big races against some good horses, but never ran on an off track or at Oaklawn. Likely the post time favorite and for good reason but I can't use him on top.

10 months off for Cox with some good works. Bravo riding. Undefeated. Gonna take a lot of money. Another horse that might be good enough to win but I've gotta bet against. Faces much the best field of his 3 race career.

layed off since being beaten by the in the super Derby. Ran at 8 different tracks in 11 career races! Started at Oaklawn before and I think he will relish the half furlong cut back. My pick.

what do you do with this horse? 4 for 8 wins at OP with no itm finishes but 2 seconds in 4 tries at a mile. Seems to be an all or nothing horse and I'm hoping it comes up nothing today.

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Old 02-10-2019, 02:48 PM   #11
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Quote:
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The 6th at Fairgrounds caught my eye as it is a mile and 9/16 affair with a full field. But if an odd distance. Would like to hear others thoughts on a marathon turf event like this.

west road-horse won a similar race at Remington back in November at 37-1
Miles are way too short for this guy. The longer the better. Low percentage connections should enhance the price once again.

Allan
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Old 02-10-2019, 03:23 PM   #12
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Fairgrounds Race #6:








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Old 02-10-2019, 03:28 PM   #13
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FG #6

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Old 02-10-2019, 03:36 PM   #14
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FG #6 & OP #8

FG #6


OP #8
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Old 02-10-2019, 03:36 PM   #15
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Oaklawn Race #8:








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