Using The Race Curve

[Cratos]

Without using the race curve, it is nebulous to speak of speed prediction.

Because what analytic geometry teaches us, the race curve for the racehorse is what's called a polygonal line, i.e., it's made up of several straight line segments (the change in the horse’s direction during the race) of different slopes.

These slopes are vectors and are measured not in speed, but the velocity attained from the horse’s displacement, not its distance.

It is also useful to understand that in the aggregate, the slopes which make up the race curve when tangentially joined together formed a downward sloping curve and this is consistent with the horse’s performance which shows as distance becomes longer the horse’s ability to maintain its rate of motion depreciates; in effect fatigue sets in because the horse’s energy reserves are being depleted.

However, there are also external impacts to the horse’s race curve and predominantly they come from the environment where the race is being conducted; and can be seen as:

Air Resistance (Aerodynamic Drag)

Air resistance is a force that is caused by air. The force acts in the opposite direction to an object (horse) moving through the air. Air resistance is the frictional force air exerts against the horse. As the horse moves, air resistance slows it down. The faster the horse's motion, the greater the air resistance will be exerted against it; although “drafting” can reduce this effect somewhat.

Air resistance affects all moving objects, from airplanes, rockets, and trains to cars, bicycles, and even living things (racehorses). Air resistance is the resistance against the air, which decreases the speed of the moving object; in this case, the racehorse.

Surface Resistance

The kinetic friction resistance in horseracing is an opposing force that is created whenever the horse’s hooves with their shoes move in contact with the racetrack surface.

Therefore, the often used phrase, “track bias” when referring to how the racetrack surface affects the speed performance of the racehorse should be correctly termed “surface resistance” if we are speaking solely of the track racing surface (dirt, turf, or poly). This surface resistance is the kinetic friction resistance between the surface of the horse’s shoes and the surface of the racetrack.

The resistance from Kinetic friction always opposes the motion or attempted motion of the horse while it is moving across the race track surface and the amount of resistance is dependent on the texture of the shoes on the horse and the track surface; and this resistance is also dependent on the amount of contact force (i.e., the normal force) is being exerted between the two surfaces.

Furthermore, this resistive force from kinetic friction against the horse’s forward movement increases when the racetrack surface material is relatively soft causing much of the resistance to the horse’s movement to be by deformation or a plowing effect in the surface. A soft surface will deform when under pressure (the force of the horse’s weight) and this deformation increases the resistance to motion.

Wind Resistance

What to do about calculating the wind force faced by the horse during the race comes up from time to time.

However, the problem with figuring out this wind force is that it is not just the wind, but the surface wind force because it is that force what affects the horse’s forward movement the most. It must be understood that in the realm of things near the ground, the wind is very erratic due to interaction with ground features.

This interaction can make it difficult to really know what speed is effectively acting on a horse whose average height proximity to the ground is about 5 feet. The generic wind pressure formula is accurate enough for our use, but figuring out what wind speed to use with it is not as straightforward as we would like.

Therefore, for horseracing handicapping, the wind force calculation is based on adjusting the standard wind speed and direction of approximately 10 meters above the racetrack surface in the United States to a height of 1 ½ meters with a 1.28 multiplier which will increase the wind speed given by the local forecast where the racetracks located.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Without using the race curve, it is nebulous to speak of speed prediction.

Because what analytic geometry teaches us, the race curve for the racehorse is what's called a polygonal line, i.e., it's made up of several straight line segments (the change in the horse’s direction during the race) of different slopes.

These slopes are vectors and are measured not in speed, but the velocity attained from the horse’s displacement, not its distance.

It is also useful to understand that in the aggregate, the slopes which make up the race curve when tangentially joined together formed a downward sloping curve and this is consistent with the horse’s performance which shows as distance becomes longer the horse’s ability to maintain its rate of motion depreciates; in effect fatigue sets in because the horse’s energy reserves are being depleted.

However, there are also external impacts to the horse’s race curve and predominantly they come from the environment where the race is being conducted; and can be seen as:

Air Resistance (Aerodynamic Drag)

Air resistance is a force that is caused by air. The force acts in the opposite direction to an object (horse) moving through the air. Air resistance is the frictional force air exerts against the horse. As the horse moves, air resistance slows it down. The faster the horse's motion, the greater the air resistance will be exerted against it; although “drafting” can reduce this effect somewhat.

Air resistance affects all moving objects, from airplanes, rockets, and trains to cars, bicycles, and even living things (racehorses). Air resistance is the resistance against the air, which decreases the speed of the moving object; in this case, the racehorse.

Surface Resistance

The kinetic friction resistance in horseracing is an opposing force that is created whenever the horse’s hooves with their shoes move in contact with the racetrack surface.

Therefore, the often used phrase, “track bias” when referring to how the racetrack surface affects the speed performance of the racehorse should be correctly termed “surface resistance” if we are speaking solely of the track racing surface (dirt, turf, or poly). This surface resistance is the kinetic friction resistance between the surface of the horse’s shoes and the surface of the racetrack.

The resistance from Kinetic friction always opposes the motion or attempted motion of the horse while it is moving across the race track surface and the amount of resistance is dependent on the texture of the shoes on the horse and the track surface; and this resistance is also dependent on the amount of contact force (i.e., the normal force) is being exerted between the two surfaces.

Furthermore, this resistive force from kinetic friction against the horse’s forward movement increases when the racetrack surface material is relatively soft causing much of the resistance to the horse’s movement to be by deformation or a plowing effect in the surface. A soft surface will deform when under pressure (the force of the horse’s weight) and this deformation increases the resistance to motion.

Wind Resistance

What to do about calculating the wind force faced by the horse during the race comes up from time to time.

However, the problem with figuring out this wind force is that it is not just the wind, but the surface wind force because it is that force what affects the horse’s forward movement the most. It must be understood that in the realm of things near the ground, the wind is very erratic due to interaction with ground features.

This interaction can make it difficult to really know what speed is effectively acting on a horse whose average height proximity to the ground is about 5 feet. The generic wind pressure formula is accurate enough for our use, but figuring out what wind speed to use with it is not as straightforward as we would like.

Therefore, for horseracing handicapping, the wind force calculation is based on adjusting the standard wind speed and direction of approximately 10 meters above the racetrack surface in the United States to a height of 1 ½ meters with a 1.28 multiplier which will increase the wind speed given by the local forecast where the racetracks located.

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

As usual...no point.

[dansan]

How's that angle working for you

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

...
This interaction can make it difficult to really know what speed is effectively acting on a horse whose average height proximity to the ground is about 5 feet. The generic wind pressure formula is accurate enough for our use, but figuring out what wind speed to use with it is not as straightforward as we would like.

Therefore, for horseracing handicapping, the wind force calculation is based on adjusting the standard wind speed and direction of approximately 10 meters above the racetrack surface in the United States to a height of 1 ½ meters with a 1.28 multiplier which will increase the wind speed given by the local forecast where the racetracks located.

Is the 5 feet important and how did you calculate it?

Also, I'm guessing you're referring to the average height of the head and body in motion but, if it's not 5 feet will it affect the calculations?

[Pensacola Pete]

The wind speed isn't as important with racehorses as it is with objects with a wider width. For horse racing, wind speed and wind resistance is more important in standardbred racing, because of the backdraft on the sulky.

Surface resistance is very important, but you need to include the horse's hoof size. Bigger hoofs will encounter more resistance on a wet yielding track (and the horse will decelerate faster) and will do better on firm turf (and glide over the ground better). The opposite is true of smaller hooves.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Is the 5 feet important and how did you calculate it?

Also, I'm guessing you're referring to the average height of the head and body in motion but, if it's not 5 feet will it affect the calculations?

I used the average height of a racehorse which the Jockey Club lists as 15 hands or 60 inches (5 Feet)

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

The wind speed isn't as important with racehorses as it is with objects with a wider width. For horse racing, wind speed and wind resistance is more important in standardbred racing, because of the backdraft on the sulky.

Surface resistance is very important, but you need to include the horse's hoof size. Bigger hoofs will encounter more resistance on a wet yielding track (and the horse will decelerate faster) and will do better on firm turf (and glide over the ground better). The opposite is true of smaller hooves.

You are correct because as the surface becomes larger so does the "force."

However this is not about taking an isolated "resistance" like the wind force (not the wind speed).

It is simply about calculating the aggregate environmental "forces" that impeded the horse's motion during the race.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by dansan

How's that angle working for you

It works very well in our model

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

I am surprised by your response, because from the reading of your posts, you come across as being thoughtful.

Now to answer your question, it is about calculating the forces which slow down the horse's motion performance.

This is not some "creative idea" by me; these calculations has been around as long as math and science.

[CosmicWon]

Mr. Cratos, I'm much more into biomechanics as they relate to ability and speed more so than external factor minutea but frankly I feel like studies such as your would be very adept for use at 2yo-in-training sales because the environment is so much more controlled.

Breeze shows ostensibly measure a furlong in 1/5s only, so instead of :9.561s we get :9.2s. If you could massage your formulas into a format that applies to those types of sales I almost guarantee important people would pay to use your data.

As an aside, have you thought of including the attributes of shoes themselves (studs, toe grabs, Queens Plate vs Bar, etc) on your surface friction algorithm? Those types of things and the depths of the prongs really do give grip on the same way spikes help a 100M runner even on a dry track.

And since someone else mentioned your 60'' height input as an avg for Tbreds, you might want to reconsider moving your parameters to 16-16.2 hands (64-66'') because the 15 hand # would make the avg Thoroughbred only 2'' taller than a pony (by definition an equine of 14.2 hands and below) and there is no way that's correct (unless they included foals in the height avg). Just food for thought.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by CosmicWon

Mr. Cratos, I'm much more into biomechanics as they relate to ability and speed more so than external factor minutea but frankly I feel like studies such as your would be very adept for use at 2yo-in-training sales because the environment is so much more controlled.

Breeze shows ostensibly measure a furlong in 1/5s only, so instead of :9.561s we get :9.2s. If you could massage your formulas into a format that applies to those types of sales I almost guarantee important people would pay to use your data.

As an aside, have you thought of including the attributes of shoes themselves (studs, toe grabs, Queens Plate vs Bar, etc) on your surface friction algorithm? Those types of things and the depths of the prongs really do give grip on the same way spikes help a 100M runner even on a dry track.

And since someone else mentioned your 60'' height input as an avg for Tbreds, you might want to reconsider moving your parameters to 16-16.2 hands (64-66'') because the 15 hand # would make the avg Thoroughbred only 2'' taller than a pony (by definition an equine of 14.2 hands and below) and there is no way that's correct (unless they included foals in the height avg). Just food for thought.

BREEZEFIGS, which are available on DRF.COM, create a figure and stride length for the two year in training breezes at the sales. Their data is very good and statistically proven.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

My WWII Uncle Dick would have been a sage on here, He used to recite, "The angle of the dangle is directly proportional to the...."

[Robert Fischer]

keep working with it.


we don't all have to agree

[Arapola]

Please contact NASA. This will be very useful information when they attempt to land the first Race Horse on Mars.