A serious question about Bolt ( No sarcasm )

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by cj

They aren't run at the same distance, for one. But even so this was explained to you already so I'll digress.

Uhhhhhhhhhh, in case you've been in a cardboard box for the past few years, they haven't been run at the same distance in recent times either. Try to stay relevant.

[burnsy]

I still remember the last time i was poo pooing the strictly figs folk.........it was Frosted. He ran a supposedly huge number in the Met Mile. Oh yeah, according to people here he was going to beat Arrogate and California Chrome. Some even said he would of beaten anyone that day.....lol. Of course he got his ass handed to him by both later in the year and up here he couldn't even beat Shaman Ghost or Mubtaahij. Its subjective and not a perfect science. If it were the game would be predictable and practically everyone would be winning......

On the grass I'll even go one further......in the summer you can just about toss those numbers.

Of course, if you don't agree with it here....you are some kind of troll......Rant

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I still remember the last time i was poo pooing the strictly figs folk.........it was Frosted. He ran a supposedly huge number in the Met Mile. Oh yeah, according to people here he was going to beat Arrogate and California Chrome. Some even said he would of beaten anyone that day.....lol. Of course he got his ass handed to him by both later in the year and up here he couldn't even beat Shaman Ghost or Mubtaahij. Its subjective and not a perfect science. If it were the game would be predictable and practically everyone would be winning......

On the grass I'll even go one further......in the summer you can just about toss those numbers.

Of course, if you don't agree with it here....you are some kind of troll......Rant

Or you could make the argument that his huge Met figure is the precise reason he lost to those horses later in the year...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Or you could make the argument that his huge Met figure is the precise reason he lost to those horses later in the year...

Or 1 turn miles don't translate to 2 turn performances.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Well I think we can agree it will be a lot of firsts for Justify in the KY Derby

1. First time facing a field over 7 horses

2. First time racing at a track other than Santa Anita

3. First time he will make actual physical contact with another horse

4. First time he will take any significant amount of dirt in a race

5. First time he faces a top tier horse. ( Sorry Bolt does not qualify as top tier ecspecially when he treated the race more like a tune up than a race )

Serious question ....

Has Justify actually ever raced against a horse that has crossed the wire first in any race at all this year ??? I know Bolt has not. Maybe one of the other 13 horses he has raced against in his career has actually won at some point this year ??? Maybe one of them took down a $2500 claimer at Thistledown ??

Maybe we have another first for Justify ....

6. First time racing against a horse that has crossed the wire first in 2018

You actually have to feel sorry for Justify. Putting such a lightweight up against a battle tested , well oiled racing machine , wrecking machine and just all around beast of a horse like Mendelssohn. Baffert should be ashamed !!

All those are legit reasons why he may not win and is definitely worth betting against.

Doesnt mean the horse is not extremely talented, physically gifted, from a top barn with a decent shot of winning the race.

You have to trash Bolt D Oro, Solomini and Instilled Regard in order to prop up your position. All those horses are legit and will win plenty of races (or have won) to back up the fact that the racing in socal is legit on dirt. Justify crushed those horses in his third start, imagine if he didnt have some setbacks and a real foundation to work with?

If this horse wins the Derby in his 4th start it would be an amazing accomplishment and testament to his ability.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

All those are legit reasons why he may not win and is definitely worth betting against.

Doesnt mean the horse is not extremely talented, physically gifted, from a top barn with a decent shot of winning the race.

You have to trash Bolt D Oro, Solomini and Instilled Regard in order to prop up your position. All those horses are legit and will win plenty of races (or have won) to back up the fact that the racing in socal is legit on dirt. Justify crushed those horses in his third start, imagine if he didnt have some setbacks and a real foundation to work with?

If this horse wins the Derby in his 4th start it would be an amazing accomplishment and testament to his ability.

Solomini got crushed all right but it was by Magnum Moon not Justify

Instilled Regard had just got his ass handed to him by Bravazo in the Risen Star prior to the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt already had his ticket punched to the derby and didn’t even try to engage Justify in the SA Derby. He was happy just using the race as a paid workout.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

All those are legit reasons why he may not win and is definitely worth betting against.

Doesnt mean the horse is not extremely talented, physically gifted, from a top barn with a decent shot of winning the race.

You have to trash Bolt D Oro, Solomini and Instilled Regard in order to prop up your position. All those horses are legit and will win plenty of races (or have won) to back up the fact that the racing in socal is legit on dirt. Justify crushed those horses in his third start, imagine if he didnt have some setbacks and a real foundation to work with?

If this horse wins the Derby in his 4th start it would be an amazing accomplishment and testament to his ability.

Oh and by the way, was not trying to knock you for getting the prep races mixed up. With so many races it’s really easy to do ...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Bolt already had his ticket punched to the derby and didn’t even try to engage Justify in the SA Derby. He was happy just using the race as a paid workout.

This is why he is my co top pick with Good Magic

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This is why he is my co top pick with Good Magic

Can’t argue with anybody who likes Good Magic ...

[cj]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

Uhhhhhhhhhh, in case you've been in a cardboard box for the past few years, they haven't been run at the same distance in recent times either. Try to stay relevant.

Yes I know. Directly comparing fractions at different distances is silly. That is my point. I'm nearly certain I know a lot more about that than you do. It is actually my job.

[cj]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I still remember the last time i was poo pooing the strictly figs folk.........it was Frosted. He ran a supposedly huge number in the Met Mile. Oh yeah, according to people here he was going to beat Arrogate and California Chrome. Some even said he would of beaten anyone that day.....lol. Of course he got his ass handed to him by both later in the year and up here he couldn't even beat Shaman Ghost or Mubtaahij. Its subjective and not a perfect science. If it were the game would be predictable and practically everyone would be winning......

On the grass I'll even go one further......in the summer you can just about toss those numbers.

Of course, if you don't agree with it here....you are some kind of troll......Rant

Could you point me to those posts? At the time he ran the big figure Arrogate wasn't a blip on the radar and American Pharoah was retired, so they should be pretty interesting to read in hind sight.

What is funny about this is nobody that uses speed figures goes out and harrasses people that don't in these threads. But somehow those that don't make themselves into martyrs.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm nearly certain I know a lot more about that than you do. It is actually my job.

Yeah CJ. Try to stay relevant.

I can't wait for the TC races to be over so that the trolls who dusted off their PaceAdvantage browser bookmark can go back to where they crawled out from.

[Robert Fischer]

Signal-to-noise ratio varies inversely with DERBY FEER


I lost track, but Bolt is not an obvious read for me.

Originally Posted by contenders form rundown

4th start G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile 1 1/16m - Drew post 11, and although Nakatani was patient at the break, never had a chance to save ground, and took the first turn very wide. Settled nicely on the backstretch. Good move at the quarter pole, but had to take the second turn very wide. Was understably tired, but finished a willing third. Although only a literal '3rd', he appeared to have perhaps turned in the best performance in the Juvenile, but was negated by post position and ground loss.

5th start G2 San Felipe S. 1 1/16M - Had to patiently settle behind the leaders and his chief rival McKinzie. Mckinzie/Smith capitalized by obtaining position for an advantageous first-run approaching the far turn, but Castellano quickly adapted and urged Bolt for a bold wide move. He appeared to foul McKinzie on the turn. Mike Smith reacted by fouling Castellano and Bolt D'Oro through the stretch run. Bolt d'Oro appeared to 'hang' just a bit late.

6th start G1 Santa Anita Derby 9f - With no other dangerous speed, Mike Smith aboard chief rival Justify took the lead and played 'catch me if you can'. Bolt d'Oro chased in vain. He was unable to make a dent into the margin. 'Hung' a bit once again during the last half-furlong. He was at a distinct tactical disadvantage in this race, but the finish was not as strong as you'd like to see in such an argument.

M̶c̶K̶i̶n̶z̶i̶e̶... Justify gets first-run, but if Justify doesn't run his race, Bolt d'Oro seems to be contending for that next-in-line opportunity to win. The only fear is that he could flatten out just a bit.
Someone like a Good Magic seems obvious should Bolt hang in the stretch.
Vino Rosso comes to mind as a possibility, but there's some extrapolation that he'll benefit from a Derby pace and distance.

Perhaps Magnum Moon really doesn't have issues, and could fill that role?

"OMAHA!" "OMAHA" will Audible be close enough at the first couple points of call to have a say for the win?

Maybe Mendelssohn really does have crop-leading ability?

Even Enticed isn't completely impossible, but he seems to need the kind of pace help that would also aid those ahead of him on this list.

Solomini would need to sprout a lead-change to join this list.

Desormeaux has a real shot with My Boy Jack, if there is severe rain and a contested pace...

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Solomini got crushed all right but it was by Magnum Moon not Justify

Instilled Regard had just got his ass handed to him by Bravazo in the Risen Star prior to the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt already had his ticket punched to the derby and didn’t even try to engage Justify in the SA Derby. He was happy just using the race as a paid workout.

Yes, the constant whipping by Castellano trying to run with Justify was just giving Bolt a race. 15 times whipped. Just clarifying your statement that is was a paid workout...

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Yes, the constant whipping by Castellano trying to run with Justify was just giving Bolt a race. 15 times whipped. Just clarifying your statement that is was a paid workout...

i wonder if we'll ever get to see the comment "bolted" next to bolt.

put robby albarado on him and theres a good chance we'll find out