Ticket Construction. The battle of the Pro's vs. On Air Analysts. Who's right?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

He is also blasting the TV analysts for including the favorite in their exotics wagers. Am I supposed to believe that the TV analysts are willingly trying to bankrupt their viewing audience? Is anybody forcing the "newbie" to listen to others when it comes to betting his own hard cash?

There is no money left on the table for the gullible in this game...and any chance of "winning" comes with HARD WORK. The sooner the newbie learns this, the better.

He's not saying don't use favorites. Listen to the show. He's not saying that at all

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

He's not saying don't use favorites. Listen to the show. He's not saying that at all

I tried listening to the show. But my fast-forward button wasn't working...and I got bored to tears after the first 10 minutes. When does the REAL conversation start?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I tried listening to the show. But my fast-forward button wasn't working...and I got bored to tears after the first 10 minutes.

If you don't know what he said why are you posting that you know what he said?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

You don't get it....you'll never get it....looking through your narrow minded lens.

I call this "being focused".

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

If you don't know what he said why are you posting that you know what he said?

I saw his tweets that you posted here.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I call this "being focused".

Glad you can rip me for trying to help people when you are focused only on yourself.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Glad you can rip me for trying to help people when you are focused only on yourself.

I'm not ripping you, friend...and if the truth be told, I agree with a lot that you say. But your "delivery" needs a little help...

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I'm not ripping you, friend...and if the truth be told, I agree with a lot that you say. But your "delivery" needs a little help...

Wow...that's a weird pivot...it went from message being completely wrong to delivery being wrong.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Wow...that's a weird pivot...it went from message being completely wrong to delivery being wrong.

In the meantime...I read that Q&A interview of yours that someone posted here. I liked it. You appear more sophisticated than I initially thought.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not sure why much of this is even a debate.

There are legitimate debates about the fair odds of the horses and how they will get bet in pools where you don't know the payoffs, but the rest of it is mostly math. That math includes whether each combination is EV+ or EV- given your estimate of each horse's chances, the probable payoffs, and whether your bankroll and emotional well being can withstand the inevitable losing streaks that come from playing tighter EV+ tickets.

People act like they HAVE TO play every pick 4, pick 5, pick 6, superfecta, super hi-5 etc.. simply because they exist.

You don't.

You play when you have a value oriented opinion or can leverage multiple value oriented opinions into greater value in the exotic pool that best matches your opinion, bankroll, risk tolerance etc..

Most people have little or no edge over this game. You can't afford to add in EV- combinations trying to cash more often. That could turn a potential winner into a loser. The primary debate is whether a certain combination is EV+ or EV- and how you can best estimate that.

I am not debating that ticket construction is the key to making money in pick 4's, pick 5's etc. I will say that how Peter Lurie or Andy Serling or Megan Devine or Ron Nicoletti play their pick 4's, pick 5's and pick 6;s have zero effect on handle and whether winning players are created. This is ridiculous. Nobody past their first lecture in horse racing 101 even cares what these people do in their pick 4's or pick 5's. They may listen to their reasoning and if something make sense they may add a horse or 2, but that is about it.

I also contend that what works for ITP, may or my not work for Cj or you or me. I gave example of where his strategies would not work for me based off a 4800 horse database. You yourself have said that you don't line races because you have trouble distinguishing a 12-1 from a 25-1, yet you want to have precision on a blind pool as to what combos are above or below even. That is why the ABC method is so strong(the method) that ITP constantly ridicules. The way I use ABC (I haven't used Crist or ticketmaker so I am not familiar with it) is typically I have 1 A, 3 B's and all other contenders are C's. If you read my database thread you will see, based on my discoveries there I will no longer use a horse over 20-1 on my line as a C, I will toss them. That is if Woodbine Mohawk opens in the next 10 years. Now typically the A will be the most likely winner. Now once again referring to my database thread I determined that horses under 2-1 win about what the public expects them to(if the favorite is over 2-1 I can probably sway some), so even though these horses are rarely value, the need to hit an A somewhere in the sequence(often I may need to) will trump the fact that one of my B's might be a horse I make 4-1 that I suspect might be 6 or 7-1. If I wanted to be really value oriented I would use that B horse as an A but I would end up missing a lot of pick 4's and pick 5's because of it. Tradeoff that I choose not to make, others may opt to make the tradeoff. Remember my 8/5 A is winning maybe a 1 of 3 while the value b might have a 1 in 7 chance. So if it comes down to me needing an A in this leg, do I want a 1 in 3 chance or a 1 in 7 chance that will pay 3 to 4 times as much. Value wise the decision is easy, the value B should be the A, but you still need to hit these at a respectable rate unless you are able to print money like ITP. Also 4 races in advance you may be wrong on your odds estimation so you make the B an A thinking he will be value and he goes off at 5/2 2nd choice. Typically b's have been my next 3 likely winners but given my database discoveries, any horse that is 50% or more below my line but above 2-1 should be downgraded to a C while any horse above my line up to 13-1 but not over double should be upgraded to a B. So these are some logical modification I can make to my approach on the first 2 legs when I have the odds or upcoming race double payouts to estimate what these horses will actually go off at. In a pick 5, 3 other races are completely blind unless you want to use morning line and public selectors as a gauge for how much support each horse will have. Regarding C's I typically use all remaining contenders although if you choose to toss a 15-1 your line at 5-1 because of poor value, I understand, but tossing them is a dangerous game.

After I have come up with who is A, who is B, and who is C and who am I singling(I need one for a pick 5) I have to come up with an affordable play. Theoretically I should be making sure that there is enough value in my A's and B's to make the play but I typically ignore this step. Value can pop up in the strangest places sometimes. Typically I will put in about $100 in a typical 20 cent pick 4 with no single or a 20 cent pick 5 with 1 single. By the way this is the model for your typical competitive field (preferably of 8 to 10 horses). In between you might have singles or double or triples or races just not worth playing or you just cannot get a handle on.

This approach has served me very well over the years (basically using my top choice as an A and next 3 choices as B's and probably using a lot of horses I did not need as C's in the past). I do sometimes play straight tickets too because filling out tickets is a bitch and often take too much time. I had all my programs in excel for Twinspires but that option is not an option for me anymore. So for a long time I went to mostly 1 to 4 ticket approaches. I prefer the ABC multi ticket approach however. I also prefer using 3 b choices to 2 b choices (although it makes the play expensive). As I mentioned earlier I may make some of the database discoveries to modify my plays some to get a little more value oriented in the future. But no matter how I look at it, when I make a $100 worth of 20 cent pick 4's or pick 5's there are going to be some undervalued combos in there and sometime they win. Can I know which ones in advance that they will be, lots of luck. CH, I think you are looking for a precision far beyond the difficulty of determining whether a horse should be 12-1 or 25-1. But bottom line the more good value horses amongst your B's the better the play will be. Also keep in mind I am not averse to singing against a 3/5 shot I do not like or single a 8-1 shot I do like. I like good gambles and will make them when I see them(win or lose).

I don't know enough about what ITP does to comment on it. I just know he says he can handicap a race in 2 to 4 minutes and print money (that makes him #1 in the world in my book). How is that for praise from a dolt.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

How is that for praise from a dolt.

He said that to YOU? I thought it was to ME!

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In the meantime...I read that Q&A interview of yours that someone posted here. I liked it. You appear more sophisticated than I initially thought.

Somebody must of got to you.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Somebody must of got to you.

Nobody knows me. Someone once told me that, in gambling...popularity is usually followed by a jail sentence.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

He said that to YOU? I thought it was to ME!

Your post was highlighted but he used the word dolts, so I assume that I am one of the dolts.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Your post was highlighted but he used the word dolts, so I assume that I am one of the dolts.

It wasn't specific but you were included in the usage.

I don't know enough about what ITP does to comment on it. I just know he says he can handicap a race in 2 to 4 minutes and print money (that makes him #1 in the world in my book). How is that for praise from a dolt.

That's what I do for the most part......I like to think that my 35 years of experience looking at races and trying to figure out how to extract money from them has made my 2 minutes looking at a race doing just that much more valuable than somebody spending 30 minutes trying to pick a winner.