Ticket Construction. The battle of the Pro's vs. On Air Analysts. Who's right?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

What I don't see addressed much directly is that you are rarely ever going to have a horizontal bet, even a P3, where all the horses are value plays. You have to figure out which combinations are value that include some horses that are bet too heavily in the straight pools. How many can you use, which ones really drag down the overall value of a ticket, etc. Playing those bets is much different that playing straight pools and figuring out if one horse offers value. Even which leg a race is will change what kind of horses you might want to use. Singling early and spreading late is what many do for example, so I'd guess there is value if you single is late in the sequence.

Can you imagine missing out on a sizeable pick-5 score because you left out the winning 8/5 shot in the final leg due to its "-EV" underlaid status? Is that what "professional play" is all about?

IMO...it's quite possible to retain "expected value" on the total wager, even if you include an underlay or two in the sequence(s). You cast a wide net to catch the big fish...but the minnows keep you fed until the big fish arrives.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Can you imagine missing out on a sizeable pick-5 score because you left out the winning 8/5 shot in the final leg due to its "-EV" underlaid status? Is that what "professional play" is all about?

I guess you can't imagine having a P-5 twice to the horse you like best value-wise that's paying 4X what the underlaid chalk is paying and winning 8X instead of 1X.

Keep on trying to find your 1% edges in the win pool instead of finding 20% edges in P-X pools because the sheep think and bet exactly like you do.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

I guess you can't imagine having a P-5 twice to the horse you like best value-wise that's paying 4X what the underlaid chalk is paying and winning 8X instead of 1X.

Keep on trying to find your 1% edges in the win pool instead of finding 20% edges in P-X pools because the sheep think and bet exactly like you do.

Would you like to compare your tax return to mine?

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Those who keep preaching about proper ticket construction should remember that "maximizing the ROI" isn't everybody's prime consideration when playing this game...and this applies to the "serious players" as well. We all have different temperaments and different risk-tolerance levels...and cookie-cutter horizontal betting advice like "either single the chalk or toss it" isn't fit for everybody. Adopting a betting method that fits our temperament and personality is way better than stepping out of our comfort zone in order to "wager optimally".

Thank you.

That risk-tolerance factor is what I sometimes see missing in the "maximize EV" line of thought. Not everyone can attack the game as confidently day after day as a streak of uncashed tickets piles up. What is normally good handicapping skill and judgment can get clouded. So for some people, lower EV wagers placed on those "not quite right, but almost" outcomes allows them to stay sharp for the long haul.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You are right. I am waiting for the "Good Samaritans" to show me the way to profitability in this game.

That is really a silly statement!

You know dam well that quality selections could very well be posted on a consistent basis anywhere for others to use.
But ya know what?!

The average horse player is too pretentious to recognize that others may be putting in a lot more into understanding this game on a regular basis then they are. So, what do they do? Of course, they resort to the old reliable “I’ll do it my way routine” instead of recognizing that someone else just might have a much better approach to becoming successful.

That’s why the VAST majority of players (probably 95%) over the long haul are out-and out losers. Then of all things they’ve got the nerve to complain about every aspect of the game! (I won’t mention where they’re posting their frustrations.)

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

That is really a silly statement!

You know dam well that quality selections could very well be posted on a consistent basis anywhere for others to use.
But ya know what?!

The average horse player is too pretentious to recognize that others may be putting in a lot more into understanding this game on a regular basis then they are. So, what do they do? Of course, they resort to the old reliable “I’ll do it my way routine” instead of recognizing that someone else just might have a much better approach to becoming successful.

That’s why the VAST majority of players (probably 95%) over the long haul are out-and out losers. Then of all things they’ve got the nerve to complain about every aspect of the game! (I won’t mention where they’re posting their frustrations.)

Exactly

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

I guess you can't imagine having a P-5 twice to the horse you like best value-wise that's paying 4X what the underlaid chalk is paying and winning 8X instead of 1X.

Keep on trying to find your 1% edges in the win pool instead of finding 20% edges in P-X pools because the sheep think and bet exactly like you do.

You remind me of a "NY Pro" that I met about 20 years ago. He knew EVERYTHING...and would talk your ear off about every intricate aspect of the handicapping and betting process. And he would shove a huge voucher into the betting machines...in case some onlooker was around. The end result was that he skipped town in the dark of night...while owing me $1,500.

Your name isn't Marcus., by any chance...is it?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

That is really a silly statement!

You know dam well that quality selections could very well be posted on a consistent basis anywhere for others to use.
But ya know what?!

The average horse player is too pretentious to recognize that others may be putting in a lot more into understanding this game on a regular basis then they are. So, what do they do? Of course, they resort to the old reliable “I’ll do it my way routine” instead of recognizing that someone else just might have a much better approach to becoming successful.

That’s why the VAST majority of players (probably 95%) over the long haul are out-and out losers. Then of all things they’ve got the nerve to complain about every aspect of the game! (I won’t mention where they’re posting their frustrations.)

Everybody should be allowed to "do it their way"...without being harrassed by some mouthy know-it-all. The racetrack offers a varied menu, to please any wagering appetite. And whether a bettor loses or not is HIS business...and his alone.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Thank you.

That risk-tolerance factor is what I sometimes see missing in the "maximize EV" line of thought. Not everyone can attack the game as confidently day after day as a streak of uncashed tickets piles up. What is normally good handicapping skill and judgment can get clouded. So for some people, lower EV wagers placed on those "not quite right, but almost" outcomes allows them to stay sharp for the long haul.

"KNOW THYSELF"...a wise man exclaimed over 2,000 years ago. And this sage advice applies 10-fold in the gambling arenas.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Everybody should be allowed to "do it their way"...without being harrassed by some mouthy know-it-all. The racetrack offers a varied menu, to please any wagering appetite. And whether a bettor loses or not is HIS business...and his alone.

So that's your solution to becoming a successful player?
There's CERTAINLY NO ONE ever stopping anyone from making costly decisions on their own.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

So that's your solution to becoming a successful player?
There's CERTAINLY NO ONE ever stopping anyone from making costly decisions on their own.

The paid analysts are getting paid by a boss, who is probably defining the broadcast boundaries to them...and it's up to the viewing audience whether the given advice should be followed or not. Do YOU see the "injustice"...because I don't. So...what's ITP bitching about?

Will the TV analyst turn the "loser" into a WINNER? What are we really talking about here?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The paid analysts are getting paid by a boss, who is probably defining the broadcast boundaries to them...and it's up to the viewing audience whether the given advice should be followed or not. Do YOU see the "injustice"...because I don't. So...what's ITP bitching about?

Will the TV analyst turn the "loser" into a WINNER? What are we really talking about here?

You don't get it....you'll never get it....looking through your narrow minded lens.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Everybody should be allowed to "do it their way"...without being harrassed by some mouthy know-it-all. The racetrack offers a varied menu, to please any wagering appetite. And whether a bettor loses or not is HIS business...and his alone.

His whole point is to help the average person or newbie win more often and have a chance to make it through the learning curve by constructing tickets more efficiently. So far nobody has made the case that he doesn't know what he's talking about only that he pisses people off while making his point which is true.

He isn't some guy blowing smoke. Like I said in the opening thread he's the real deal and many people know who he is and what he's done.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

His whole point is to help the average person or newbie win more often and have a chance to make it through the learning curve by constructing tickets more efficiently. So far nobody has made the case that he doesn't know what he's talking about only that he pisses people off while making his point which is true.

He isn't some guy blowing smoke. Like I said in the opening thread he's the real deal and many people know who he is and what he's done.

He is also blasting the TV analysts for including the favorite in their exotics wagers. Am I supposed to believe that the TV analysts are willingly trying to bankrupt their viewing audience? Is anybody forcing the "newbie" to listen to others when it comes to betting his own hard cash?

There is no money left on the table for the gullible in this game...and any chance of "winning" comes with HARD WORK. The sooner the newbie learns this, the better.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

He is also blasting the TV analysts for including the favorite in their exotics wagers.

Bad favorites or all favorites.

Get a clue and stop lying.